dRisk Dave retweeted
My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will:
1. Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate.
2. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority.
3. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority.
This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word.
All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one.
dRisk Dave retweeted
Back in 1998 I bot a sh!t load of a new company that became public a few months earlier on the Nasdaq. Their business plan was to replace Barnes&Nobles, a household name selling books everywhere in fancy stores across the US, by an online shop! 👀
Split adjusted, I paid $0.80 per share
Everybody and their uncles laughed at me!
The ticker ... $AMZN ... heard of it?
Then came Feb 2001... the stock lost 40% of its value and I dropped my pants and sold the whole 5 figures position.... at a loss!!!!!!!! To never looked at it ever again. Today 1 share is trading at 244 US Fiat freeking dollars! It still have nightmares avt it!
The year is 2026. I bought a sh*it load of a Japanese hotel turned a BTCTC. A position that I've been building since nov 2024. Their business plan: dominate Japan and Asia with their Bitcoin back products and have a strong presence in the US. Everybody and their uncles laughed at me.
But this time I won't sell for the coming 5 to 10 years! HOOOODDDLLLL!!
Lesson learned!
I am not going anywhere this time around @DylanLeClair 🙏🙏 @gerovich
Finally reached my upper upper band for my goal with @Metaplanet ´s shares owned, with a last purchase at EU1.5 (¥250 equivalent) executed today...
2026 has been amazing to DCA into the Japanese hotel all year at ridiculously low prices under mNav 1!!!!.... Now LFG @gerovich and @DylanLeClair
Send it!
I am not going anywhere!
And to all the ney sayers, see you in 5 years ... time will be the final judge!
dRisk Dave retweeted
We went through every daily close since August 2000. Oil has closed at $100 or more on 568 days, but only 5 of those also had the 10-year Treasury yield at 5% or higher, and all 5 are from this fall.
Before this year the highest 10-year on any $100 oil day was 4.26%, back in 2008. Method: Yahoo WTI front-month and 10-year yield closes, 6,564 days. Not a forecast.
$SPCX: Interesting. Launch revenue went up even though Falcon flew 12 launches Q3 vs 15 a year ago.
$94m per launch vs the previous $67m per launch. Substantial increase in launch revenue.
$SPCX: Some really happy SpaceX engineers today. Cursor S-8: 44.6M options with an average strike of $1.65. The stock closed at $145.23 today.
Payday.
$SPCX: SpaceX's biggest remaining unlock is Dec 8: up to 797.6M shares.
It's that big because an August early release never triggered. It needed a close of $175.50 (30% over the $135 IPO price) on 5 of the 10 days into Q2 results. Best close in that window: $125.33.
After Dec 8, up to ~1.76B more unlocks in steps through mid-2027, plus Musk's 6.4B on Jun 12, 2027.
"Up to" = allowed to trade, not sold.
dRisk Dave retweeted
Into today's Fed decision (11 AM PT), bitcoin is the calmest market on our board.
Its last 5 days rank 6 out of 100 against its own past year. The 10-year Treasury yield ranks at the top, about 100. Nasdaq 88, dollar/yen 83.
Bitcoin is usually one of the jumpiest things we track. This week bonds are doing the moving.
Method: spread of the last 5 daily moves, ranked against every 5-day stretch in the past year. Not a forecast.
dRisk Dave retweeted
$SPCX: SpaceX's $40B GPU lease in cash terms, from the 8-K + Q3 10-Q: fully drawn it's ~$2B a quarter of principal before interest (our estimate, $40B ÷ 20). 9-month operating cash flow was $13.1B, capex $48.1B, cash + securities $89.9B. cash interest paid is already $2.1B YTD, 3x last year. leases start as GPUs arrive in 1H27.
$SPCX: Fun detail on the spacex $40B gpu lease, Apollo's done this once already. Their funds led the $3.5B financing behind valor's $5.4B GB200 lease to xAI back in Jan, so they came back for 7x the size.
dRisk Dave retweeted
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on Oct 5.
Highest close since May 2002 (5.32%).
Friday: 5.00%. Dec 31: 4.18%. The 2023 peak was 4.98%.
The whole curve is up this year:
3-month 3.67 → 4.22
2-year 3.47 → 4.69 (+1.22 pts)
10-year 4.18 → 5.00
30-year 4.84 → 5.33
At or above 5% on 24 trading days since Sep 15.
Checked against every daily close Treasury publishes since 2000. Fed decides Wednesday.
$MPJPY: Sure, sell your shares because a faceless account told you to do so.
dRisk Dave retweeted
Metaplanet the only one interested in being a Bitcoin Investment Bank with Operating Revenue and EPS investors pay more than 1mNAV for. The rest are stuck in the bottom left corner telling everyone who will listen they only need the Preferred Stock and love being viewed by Wall Street as a Closed-End Fund like GBTC.
