ISFP | 守正出奇 | 体验派

Osaka-fu, Japan
Joined October 2021
last day,离职了 如果不是3年来高强度996,不见得会有为自己而活的想法 这三年间幸好接触了去中心化,让我有了一次重生的机会 我明确地知道我想要什么,并在今天付出对应的勇气 剩下的时间,我要去慢慢追逐夕阳,慢慢走在web3的路上 再见,华子。 你好,生活。
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You could 3/20x your portfolio in the next 12 months by not taking a single directional position but you’re too addicted to the rush
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Elkeson航 retweeted
banger by andy - big fan of the rollup and what he's doing
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Elkeson航 retweeted
for any large position you take in your portfolio you should know more about that project than 99% of everyone else This is a fairly durable edge to have in crypto because most people simply do not do the work I take this idea of "being in the top 1%" and apply it to basically any new idea, niche, sector or project that im researching. I usually dont allocate any capital but the process of this compounds you can imagine that after a few months (or years) of doing this you start to have an insanely good understanding of a wide variety of topics in crypto. This "map" that you build out eventually becomes your edge in the space so my $.02 is to have a goal of becoming the top 1% in understanding any area of crypto that you are interested in. It will pay dividends forever
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A conversation w/ @CryptoHayes on OpenAi & Anthropic being worthless, why China is especially interesting right now, agentic money systems, crypto token disparity, quantum risk vs reality, and what changed his mind about Ethereum. 00:00 Intro 00:27 Bitcoin to 1 Million 00:57 Why Governments Always Print Money 03:31 Ai Tokens vs Crypto Tokens 04:30 AI Is a Waste of Money 06:11 Zcash vs. Ethereum 07:29 Why Only a Few Coins Win 10:38 China's Coming Money Printing 11:51 Stablecoins vs. Local Currencies 14:03 AI Model Companies Are Worthless 15:17 Agentic Payment Systems 17:28 Why Agents Won't Use Stablecoins 18:56 Poetry and Trading Competitions 21:17 Ai Money > BTC 22:52 Tokenization Supercycle 24:43 Michael Saylor Szn is Over 26:12 Central Banks Buying Coins 27:29 Is Quantum Risk Overhyped? 27:54 Consensus Trades 29:35 Favorite Coins 30:20 Why ETH Will Outperform
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Elkeson航 retweeted
Today we're launching Sparsity Analyst Here's what you get: Telegram alerts. Choose the coins you follow and the conditions that matter to you, such as bottom signs appearing or holder strength crossing a level, and our bot notifies you when they're met. A full page on every coin in our index, with a short profile of the project, what moved and why, each metric day by day, holders over time, the bottom signs in full, past drawdowns and a comparison with its peers. Our view on each coin, and the posts and articles worth reading. Full access to our research. We'll keep adding features for Analysts. The holder strength index and the bottoming map remain free for everyone. We know the past month has been rough onchain, so the first 30 days are on us. sparsitydata.com/analyst
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Yes, I think if we lose $270, then it means the market is actively trading the recession risk.
And now a bearish engulfing $IWM Told ya...
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Elkeson航 retweeted
ICT+PA流动性策略,黄金随机K线复盘(6) 继续用流动性+趋势的方法复盘 寻找趋势的起点,拿超大波段和趋势
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Elkeson航 retweeted
Metric is now live. The future of AMMs. I had several conversations at token with traders about where things are headed. A few mentioned that they think the next big protocol will be an AMM. I tend to agree Ref: app.metric.xyz/r/theo
Metric is live: metric.xyz Swap. Provide liquidity. Deploy your own pool. Now open on Robinhood Chain, @BNBCHAIN and @ethereum.
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Elkeson航 retweeted
study this intensely
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现在又整理出两个列表, 一个delphi投研团队,说实话,我是delphi小子,不管是撸毛还是其他研究,很喜欢 一个blockworks投研团队,主要是ajc吸引了我,想要探寻一下他们团队还有哪些人才
我每天都在阅读我的三个列表 美股交易列表里的人说话好听,基本面,技术面面面俱到 山寨交易列表里的人除了上述之外还有心理按摩贴,人生导师贴 meme交易列表里的人让我每天解谜,发了一个无名字的k线,说着叽里咕噜的谜语,生怕我猜出来对应标的 so funny😊
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Elkeson航 retweeted
Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.
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Elkeson航 retweeted
I promised to share some ideas I was toying with in these days, and as i'm back from Korea, here are some for the next few weeks. You may notice that some involve 2017 era coins, but hey, the "day of the dead" celebration is just one month away. 1) BAT 4.0: ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef Buybacks We start with one of the maybe most delusional ideas I had. In July 2026, Brave announced the upcoming BAT 4.0 upgrade, a set of initiatives to bring back some life into the payments/crypto component of Brave. Brave recently passed 100m MAUs (122m MAUs and 50m+ DAUs as of today), if a fraction (like 0.1% - 1%) of these users can actually pour into these initiatives, it can be huge for BAT. Between the initatives that may interest us, other than the x402 integration with MPP, there's the revamp of the wallet (which i'm told right now sucks hardcore), BravePay (a stablecoin protocol layer) and Brave Card (Brave going Neobank). There's also the CCP (a system to compensate verified creators when content is used in AI experiences) which leaves me much skeptical although could catch good narrative winds. Why do we care this much? because revenue from many of these sources: wallet, swaps, near intents, cross-chain bridging, brave card revenue, bravepay, will actually go into buying back ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef, coupled with some more opportunistic BAT buybacks. We don't know the exact timeline yet, but it should all be this year. 2) FIL: end of 6 years Unbelievable but true, we're finally done. Six years have passed, and the Filecoin foundation + labs are finally done vesting. I don't think many people are looking at filecoin:native anymore (nor at ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef for all that matters tbh), however, this removes a pressure that is 3x the mining rewards (which are going to continue) and it's such a long standing thing, that I think we can bet on some chart reaction. This is almost $5/6m of monthly unlocks going away, on a paper-thin liquidity token. 3) ZRO: Atlas Catalyst This is not exactly a novel trade, you probably already read about it from somebody else like Evans on CT (and many others). Fundamentally, the Atlas launch is expected in the next couple months (we don't really know when exactly) and this is a token that always gets huge coverage. I maybe wouldn't hold THROUGH the news, I don't like the team particularly, plus - in all fairness - ethereum:0x6985884c4392d348587b19cb9eaaf157f13271cd is a trade that i started taking quite lower and here's maybe not the best level to start adding (paradoxically maybe better to wait for a break up higher, but you know, you gotta stop chasing perfect entries too at some point). We expect lots of shiny names for the announcement and i think a lot of attention may also switch over from $NEAR to ethereum:0x6985884c4392d348587b19cb9eaaf157f13271cd (i'm also short NEAR, surely will regret). 4) ZAMA: DeFi Privacy? Most would expect with $ZEC (finally) cooling down (another good reason for me to take the NEAR trade) that privacy wouldn't be particularly hot... and maybe they're right, who knows? however, i like ethereum:0xa12cc123ba206d4031d1c7f6223d1c2ec249f4f3, i think many are ignoring it, and i think a lot of the players behind it have been hardcore labelled as losers and really want to see this higher to make people seethe finally. I don't really have a full thesis on this, i'm just in, green uPNL, and i like the token (and the chart). It's also possible that privacy is something that we'll stick with in the next few years (but really unconvinced about ZEC being the right expression for it). 5) Smaller Tokens: ORBIO, DIME These are maybe a couple of black horses. 5a -- robinhood:0xaa07a0e9209e16ac99708c3ec70159c6ef3128a3 Who rode this with me knows how happy I am about this trade, probably the best one I took since going back full time to the trenches. I sold most of it, and now carrying my last moonbag, that it's actually somewhat paired with a $VVV short (playing dangerous games on this). I've been consistently buying dips on orbio, with much satisfaction, but here i'm in a tough spot where I'm up a lot (normally I would just close this and go away), I think RHC is going to cool down a bit, but I still think they didn't have any meaningful winner beyond a couple of meme names. Inference costs are going down but still gonna stay a hot theme for quite some time, and i'm also told people like the product. So i'm carrying one last bag looking to squeeze maybe another final x2/x3. The $VVV short is only partially correlated to this, as ORBIO is indeed somewhat similar to it, but I just think VVV may be close to be played out 5b -- ethereum:0xb32e10022ffbedfe10bc818a1c7e67d9d87e0fa7 Here the idea is pretty simple, token is hard to buy, liquidity is paper-thin (well, double-edged sword I guess) and options are having QUITE some momentum, between DRV price action, Molly pushing for the new options cartel, and Paradex starting to attract some more options volume consistently since the second half of September. This is mostly a 0/100 type of play, probably an okay one to play to chase some Xs. 6) The GRASS is always green? Speaking of dcfgod plays (DRV), another one that is doing very well recently is solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs (and well, ZRO), since they hold 1% of the supply. The current re-rating is happening on the shoulder of the 2025 and 2026 h1 revenue disclosure/attestation (17th September). I'm not exactly a huge grass bull, there are many things that can go wrong, but we don't have many clean AI growth expression onchain (although now with all the RWA stuff maybe they're not even that needed) aside from grass and chip and maybe a few others. Time seems okay to keep holding, even though consider that every time i touch solana, except for the recent BP w, i burned money. 7) Finally, a couple names added to the watchlist (and the portfolio) in TradFi: 7a -- started purchasing $NKE because I do think some ships have to be turned at some point, and maybe it goes lower from here (for now it's slightly up) maybe it's over forever, but I think at some point we're going to get at least a hope/relief bounce and more likely somewhat of a recovery. Sure, it's true that it's very red only going 5y back, but in reality the current prices are not THAT old, but still. 7b -- bought some $CBRS as people smarter than me think this has been badly beaten and chart looked okay for a bid, it was a little bit lower (but not much), will probably hold until range mid/highs. That's about it, most of these are fresh ideas I've been exploring in the last week, there are plenty of other things i'm still holding / accumulating in tradfi, some in crypto (e.g. UMIA), some that I didn't make it in time to include aside from tg before I also closed the trade (SKY).... that said, enjoy your sundays fam. gn
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Elkeson航 retweeted
I think that $STANDARD will be a pivotal part of the next Robinhood chain wave
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贝森特削减国债拍卖规模,缺口由短期国库券(T-bills)替代;通过人为收缩长端债券供给,直接压缩期限溢价(Term Premium)并推升长债价格,从而压低 10 年至 30 年期美债收益率 前期承接短债的核心资金池——美联储隔夜逆回购(ON RRP)规模已消耗至低位,后续增发 T-bills 直接消耗银行准备金,极易引发货币市场流动性危机。以短代长工具箱余量不多。长换短也将更快的反向推升财政净利息赤字,如饮鸩止渴。 所以这不但长期不会影响美债走势,反而人为的给美债交易者创造了难得的机会
Rumor on the street is that Bessent will be cutting bond auction sizes in the next QRA… Higher demand via increased buybacks. Lower supply via reduced auctions. The House needs lower yields.
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Elkeson航 retweeted
听信胡言乱语的人不配买$200+ 的 $ZEC 拿到$1500-1700
Replying to @CryptoCaligh
$ZEC 昨天 270-300 的货止盈400一下赚了一波。然后昨晚看形势建仓回原来40% 关注我的老丝因该知道我一路来喜欢和大众唱反调。错了270的利润也盖过亏损。 xitter.cf/CryptoCaligh/status/20…
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