Most of last cycle's biggest memes looked boring right before they went parabolic. Before their biggest move after launch, 7 of the 8 winners we studied spent weeks or months going sideways. The typical wait was about two months. It ranged from 25 days for SPX6900 to roughly 10 months for PEPE and BONK. FARTCOIN was the only one that trended straight to its top. Look at POPCAT. It sat between $6M and $13M through February 2024 and bottomed at $6M on Feb 3. It broke out on Feb 29 and was at $358M by April 1. The pattern repeats across the chart. The low came inside the range, weeks before the breakout. WIF and SPX6900 even dipped just under their ranges right before running. Once they went, the typical move took about a month from breakout to peak: BONK 113x the range top, SPX6900 53x, POPCAT 29x, MOG 17x. The bottom row is today's consolidating leaders in the same view. AI, BONER, CASHCAT and PONS are 25 to 35 days into ranges of their own.

Last cycle's biggest memes all looked dead at two months old. By day 60, PEPE, WIF, BONK, FARTCOIN and the rest had each already come back from two or three drawdowns of 50% or more. Today's leaders on Robinhood Chain and Solana are on the same track. Look at the blue box in the bottom left. The dashed orange icons are last cycle's winners at two months old, the blue ones are today's leaders. They sit right alongside each other. What came next is the part most people seem to forget during these drawdowns. From day 60 to their top, the winners grew a median of 15.9x, and they had a median of 4 more drawdowns along the way. Every single one went through at least one more 50% drop before it topped and nobody got the 15.9x without sitting through the drops. Worth mentioning: This only includes coins that went on to win, so it's what winning looked like, not how often it happens. We'll be tracking these leaders daily.

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