Your friendly neighbourhood finance bro | Checkmate strategist | MMA enthusiast | Nothing you see on here should be taken as Financial Advice, ever.
Moon
Joined April 2013
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Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
1. Never stop exercising or learning.
2.Accept compromise to begin relationships.
3. Manifest the power of compounding.
4. Never gamble.
5. Have kids and be a good parent
6. If it flies or floats, rent it.
7. Buy half the house you can afford.
8. Art in the eye of the beholder is cheap.
9. Be thankful for and to all.
10. Be charitable.
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
In a normal functioning ecosystem, when the price of tokens drops below the cost of production, the quantity of tokens declines to normalize with pricing. In this case, nothing in AI has any unit economics and you don’t see normalization because everyone is still going full-speed ahead with external funding. (Sort of like shale oil in 2016-2019). Meanwhile, compute prices are based on LT contracts that were signed at above market prices, and are now capital destructive. They’ll eventually catch down to token prices in free-fall.
What we’re seeing here is spot price negatively diverging from term pricing. Usually, when this happens in a cyclical industry, it’s INCREDIBLY BEARISH. Especially when there are take-or-pay contracts that make it difficult to ration supply at prices below cost. What we’re witnessing is a world where losses will accelerate, just as more supply comes online….
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
The US AI bubble is resting on 3 key assumptions: 1- shortage of compute 2- no roadblocks to the infra rollout and 3- there will be ample financing to support the outlandish capex spend assumptions.
Let’s take these one by one and put it past the Casio stress test.
1/38
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
We're back to "bubble" talk
"This time it's like the railroads" has been making the rounds... and BofA's Hartnett weighs in
Peak concentration for most asset bubbles in history have been around the 40% mark... except the railroads
Bull case: we go to 60% like the railroads
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
I reverse-engineered every buyable bottom on SPY.
Here is what actually flagged them.
Instead of debating which indicator predicts bottoms, I worked backwards. I took 2 years of SPY daily data (501 trading days), found every pivot low that bounced 5% or more within 10 days (7 of them) and every pivot high that dropped 5% or more (3 of them), then measured what 13 technical studies were printing at each exact turning point versus ordinary days.
The winner surprised me.
Bollinger %B under 0.15 caught 86% of the buyable bottoms.
6 out of 7 bottoms printed %B below 0.15 at the pivot close. Zero of the tops did. Only 7% of ordinary days did. Quick refresher: %B measures where price sits inside the Bollinger Bands. 1.0 is the upper band, 0 is the lower band, below 0 means price closed under the lower band.
How the studies ranked (median at bottoms vs ordinary days):
• MACD histogram: -2.80 vs +0.42 (catches everything, but noisy, 43% false positives)
• Bollinger %B: 0.11 vs 0.67 (the clean trigger)
• Stochastic %K: 16 vs 83
• Stochastic %D: 21 vs 83
• RSI(14): 39.6 vs 55.3
The RSI surprise: median RSI at real bottoms was 39.6, not 30. The classic "buy when RSI goes under 30" rule caught only 29% of actual bottoms. Waiting for deep oversold meant missing most of the bounces.
Three rules worth forward-testing:
1. %B under 0.15 alone: 86% of bottoms, 7% false positive rate. Best single filter in the study.
2. %B under 0.15 AND price under the 50-day average: keeps most bottoms, trims the noise further.
3. RSI under 35 AND %B under 0.15: only caught 29% of bottoms, but zero false flags anywhere. Rare, high conviction when it fires.
Recent flags for reference:
Jul 29 2026 (%B -0.16, then +6.1%),
Jun 26 2026 (%B 0.14, then +5.0%),
Mar 30 2026 (%B -0.02, then +7.6%).
The honest part, because small samples lie: 7 bottoms is thin, the window was mostly bull market, and tops had no clean signal at all. In September the flag tripped 4 times without a full 5% bounce following, so treat %B under 0.15 as "conditions are washed out," not "bottom confirmed."
I am setting up automations to flag for these triggers live. When the next %B washout flags it will auto post in my slack. Was only able to pull for a couple years but would like to see a larger sample set
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
The current situation in the Economy
is more similar to 1929 - than it is to 2007-08 or 2000-01.
Insane stock market Bubble - much bigger than 2007 - but worse economy (labor market, consumer and housing) than 2000-01.
Best comparison - with current Bubble and state of the Economy - is in fact 1929.
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
yeah so basically trump got cocky after succeeding with venezuela and had a hot hand and decided to double down and strike iran in february thinking they could take over the country in a couple of weeks despite everyone telling him it was a bad idea and would drag on
nothing really happened and then Iran learned that they can actually close the strait of hormuz and were unsure if it would even work but now its become obvious they can do it and feel empowered. the iranians have a longer history as a culture and are slow walking trump as much as possible as they know that higher oil prices are going to ruin his odds in the midterms and weaken him
not only that but now higher energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields which has made the job of his new fed chair warsh who came in under a premise of potential rate cute but because of the iran war were entering a rate hiking cycle
the only person in the room who was trying to juggle all of this was scott bessent but after trying to juggle everything for so long he decided he was going to try and fight the bond vigilantes to lower bond yields and declared himself as the house. but he showed up to the bond fight with hardly any ammunition and now the bond market is calling his bluff and now the bond auctions are going terrible and he looks like a fool now
so now bond yields are surging export bans on diesel are being put in place as an act of desparation midterms are a total write off and the trump admin is about to spend the next two years probably fighting impeachment hearings while things continue to detoriorate and the funny thing about all of this is he won the presidency off the idea of no more foreign wars but its his own foreign war with iran that started this whole mess and now the free market is testing them all
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
Straits Taylor Rule:
i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0
Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)
You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.
Stay unanchored !
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
holy shit.
tristan buckmaster is saying openai has a forced navier–stokes blowup via the córdoba / martínez-zoroa program.
and that it may have used drafts from his and levent alpöge’s private codex sessions.
that’s the córdoba / martínez-zoroa route. almost nobody else was on it.
he also says the first prompt went out after information about his and levent alpöge’s work reached openai. that “very little human input” was not true. that a whole team had already been set on easier problems, including euler. that even the prompt they showed him was written by prompting codex.
then he asked:
did the model have their private codex sessions.
no answer on training.
if any of that holds, openai didn’t just scoop a math result. they may have done it off two researchers’ unpublished drafts, then tried to cut the coauthor because he works at anthropic.
a millennium-problem-adjacent result just became employee drama before an ipo.
i don’t even know which part is crazier.
this is one of the slimiest things i’ve seen in this industry.
I deleted my previous post. I'm just going to post the entire statement page by page. It's a complicated situation.
Statement: cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/state…
cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/euler…
cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/ipm.p…
cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/bouss…
github.com/tristanbuckmaster…
Ritodeep Ray, CFA retweeted
The most commonly rated “life-changing” interventions:
- Doing math
- More sleep
- Weightlifting
- α-Klotho
- Oxytocin
- Dihexa
- Modafinil
- Nicotine
- Caffeine
Personally, I’d add bromantane and semax to the upper-right quadrant too.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This chart is a digitally altered version of a chart from a 2022 Reddit nootropics rating survey. It has added numerous nonsensical nootropics and has repositioned real nootropics that were included in the original survey.
web.archive.org/web/2026031300…
