@cryptocobasis

elaboration on 'macro' and 'micro economic trends.' not investment advice. new austrian school of economics.

 london
purelytheoreticalresearch.com
Joined May 2019
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  • Followers90
917Media
most famous company you’ve never heard of: last trade €62.80 v low of €47.70 in march… €3-5 changed to €1-3. $SPX $NDX
purely theoretical research@cryptocobasis27 Oct 2024
CTS Eventim - most famous company you've never heard of: 4x sales/17% EBIT (200x strip!) discounting some cheapo tailor swift/coldplay "music" concert not only three times a day but also for 100 years, fully sold-out... fair value between €3-€5 v. €98 last trade. $SPX $NDX
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economic indicator: brambles update: stock (rel) collapsed from 2.8 to 1.9x in jun. reminder cash flow is phantom… $SPX $NDX
purely theoretical research@cryptocobasis21 Aug 2025
bramble update: of $1bn fcf, $219m (!) was from selling old pallets (heading to zero price.) $384m in buybacks for 2025 (v 0) - and $400m for this year. hand shares to them!
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clorox (5x net debt/ebitda) $CLX bond spreads falling on a single issues but more noticeably on time relative basis: ie 2036 spreads collapsing more so than 2032… $SPX $NDX
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british land update: currently at 416p (0.72x ev/strip but 13.4 ev/sales) divergence with rate of change. technical 🩳 to 98-99p (7x sales)… then to minus 200p to minus 100p (0.4x-2.6x sales) $SPX $NDX $SPG
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yoghurt is fine but ‘commoditising breeding cattle’ into ‘fiat securities’ certainly isn’t.
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assignats mandats danone yoghurt perpetuity at €94.328 list of ‘france currency failures’…
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‘broker scam’ - one broker directed a client to ‘buy paintings/house’ from ‘bond trading profits’ - but painting/house were ‘set up’ by his cousin… cost peanuts.
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folks involved in conjuring/selling/marketing corporate bonds 😬… going to be pursued just as much as a ‘spac’ broker!
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purely theoretical research retweeted
sandeep@BullionbasisOct 23
softbank spread down 120c from $96.80 to $95.51… (noticeable daily move for a spread) 7.5%/jul’35/$0.5b v 4%/nov’35/$135b $SPX $NDX
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‘tool’ - how those who own ‘the bottom line’ of various property projects* disparagingly refer to workers - as in ‘they’re worth less than their tools.’ *they flit between locations avoiding tax; have ‘private’ boats/planes.
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fourth wall / planeta junior @channel5_tv “when i grew up, i think it would be good to be a factory worker!”
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*crud about america *more crud about america *various middle eastern conflicts *football *more football *random crud about royals *silly little girl musings *and more sports @guardian has turned into…
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marketing like “gold is number one” and “gold coins are for winners” might work up that bid…
sandeep@BullionbasisOct 18
“there’s no bid to hit…” well then work up a bid… television, movies, advertising… and then hit it. best of luck brokers.
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jp morgan $JPM capital spread moves from $92.28 to less than $82.34 in just three days? $SOX $NDX
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‘overnight sweep’ - when bank directors (at your command) buy govt. bills maturing next day (‘overnight’) with ‘spare cash’… whilst you forget about ‘standing orders’ going before cash is received => collapse!
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equity/commodity v bond dealers: former just ‘square each other off 👀’ between trade/settlement… but latter get their pencils out to calculate ‘adjustments for three days interest’… abhorrent!
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dow as measured in prior days as brokers before knew it: currently at $257.89, up $27 ytd (“11.7%”) and at same level as oct 1928… $SPX $NDX
Dow Jones industrial average adjusted for a “fixed dollar to gold ratio” of $20.67 dollars fiat.

ALT Dow Jones industrial average adjusted for a “fixed dollar to gold ratio” of $20.67 dollars fiat.

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bank directors who’ve written ‘credit default swaps’ should be ‘short of capital spreads’ in order to make potential payouts… but obviously not all bank directors can be…
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capital spread movement week to date: $PLD prologis 4.375%/15 Sep 48/$300m v 3%/15 Feb 49/ $54b $119.51 -> $113.17: down $6.34 $SPG simon property group 4.25%/1 Oct 44/$400m v 3%/15 nov 44/ $41b $114.29 -$107.85: down $6.44
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capital land ascot trust - typical ‘reit’ accelerating downwards at same rate prior to 2008/9 - but currently at 0.75x ev/strip? $SPX $NDX
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