MUTUALLY ASSURED ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION Large-scale tariffs are the "big red button" that closes the US capital account off to the world. The US has had to mirror China's closed capital account to protect itself from a system so good at giving it what free markets want. 1/

We've turned a corner for risk here that's been pretty crappy for the last 2 weeks Oil rally is faltering Euro equities rallying even with oats off this morning Solid breadth yesterday in SPX Can really charge into month end of we get good results today

A racing series with just this car would be epic. It would bring back the awesomeness of 90s British touring cars again

Yeah so a few rate hikes aren't going to slow this economy down

I don't understand why anthropics ARR is a good proxy for AI demand as a whole. How do you know if they are/aren't compute constrained, or losing to a competitor, or just have uncompetitive models? Will infra capex return to investors? I'm not sure if this gets anywhere close to being able to answer this question.

2s not rallying with the oil sell-off makes sense (growth has been the dominant driver through reals) but is probably wrong (Fed pretty clear that it will hike for inflation not growth)

Yeah, look, I don't really know if this time is the same as the other Yields needed to go higher - but the catalyst here has an obvious growth downside if it gets too much worse The only growth downside in 22/23 were the rates themselves

All of this bond doomerism is really getting on my nerves We've moved to pricing 4 hikes. Like why is this such a catastrophic thing?

Can bonds ever really again? The summary is that: The bad news is that there really isn’t a reason for the sell-off to stop; The only way it could is if the Fed/ECB guided to a few hikes only; This means that the long end just won’t rally, but bull steepeners are the “bullish bond” play; and The out of consensus view is that it just doesn’t matter to risk assets at all. macroisdead.com/p/can-bonds-…

Seriously losing your premium on these is a harder thing to explain to your investors than what happened in July What is he doing

Wasn't much in that presser to justify the move in 2s imo The answer is that the market is learning that without forward guidance it can push the Fed around. This works until the day when they don't move against a 90% priced meeting Then we'll really see some fireworks

Current situation is no where near as bad as at end of March. At that point we thought we had near zero oil flow and oil infra was being blown up left and right Red lines have been adhered to on both sides. Will be difficult for war premium to last.

US yield curve is flattening aggressively Worst bond meltdown ever Looks more like your average CB hike into fwd growth slowdown to me