🧩 Decision-making under uncertainty · Writing about judgment, chance, and irreversibility · Books
Copenhagen
Joined February 2025
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ClariCue retweeted
You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice.
You thought it was you. It is not you.
Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse.
Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like.
The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation.
Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first.
What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland.
Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved.
They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data.
The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment."
The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible.
This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis.
The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world.
Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.
ClariCue retweeted
Jeff Bezos reveals why politicians never actually fix anything:
"There's this tale of two economies. People are struggling with pay rent, groceries. And politicians are using this age-old technique of picking a villain and pointing fingers. But the problem is that doesn't solve anything."
He says at Amazon they would never operate that way.
"If we have a problem at Amazon, the way we would fix it is we'd go in and do the five whys and try to get to a root cause. We try to find a root fix. And then when we fix it at the root, you're fixing it forever. It's a real solution."
"What we don't do, because it doesn't work, is just point fingers and blame people. It might feel good for 10 seconds but doesn't accomplish anything."
Most leaders blame, but the best ones diagnose.
— @JeffBezos
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Jeff Bezos reveals why he refuses to make a single important decision before 10am:
"I like to putter in the morning. I like to read the newspaper. I like to have coffee. I like to have breakfast with my kids before they go to school. My puttering time is very important to me. That's why I set my first meeting at 10 o'clock"
"I like to do my high IQ meetings before lunch. Anything that's going to be really mentally challenging, that's a 10 o'clock meeting. Because by 5pm, I'm like, I can't think about that today. Let's try this again tomorrow at 10am"
"As a senior executive, what do you really get paid to do? You get paid to make a small number of high quality decisions. If I make three good decisions a day, that's enough. Warren Buffett says he's good if he makes three good decisions a year"
ClariCue retweeted
Bravo @JeffBezos!
Perhaps the most bright thought for months on this media.
Novak Djokovic just said being bored is the most creative state a child can be in.
His son is 10 and his daughter is 7.
He says when his son told him he was bored after a morning of ping pong, kayaking, and soccer, he sat him down for a conversation most parents avoid.
"It's okay to be bored sometimes. When you're bored, it doesn't mean that you have to instantly take a book or a screen. You need to also learn how to be with your thoughts."
Djokovic says boredom is when creativity finally shows up, and it's also when everything you have been suppressing through your phone comes to the surface.
Most parents are protecting their kids from the only state that grows them.
— Novak Djokavic (@DjokerNole) on Jay Shetty's (@jayshetty) podcast
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The crucial difference between opinions and knowledge. In deciding on who to listen to we often forget or fail to ask the crucial question: do the person have specific knowledge and experience in what we are deciding on? Have they made a similar decision? Like ever? If not it is just an opinion, not knowledge.
If you’re so smart go work for my competitors and put me out of business with all your brilliant ideas
Dana White on media criticism:
“My biggest problem with the media is who the fuck are you and what the fuck have you ever done?
Nothing.
Nobody's ever depended on you for a paycheck.
Who are you to criticize anybody?
You have all these people on the internet talking about what we should be doing with our business.
I said "Holy shit you guys are fucking brilliant.”
-PFL
-Bellator
-One Championship
-Many, many other failing combat sport companies
Why don't they just fucking hire you guys if you guys have the answers for everything?
I can't even read this shit because it's so dumb.
These guys know nothing about this business yet these are the people that are covering it.
It's fascinating to me that anybody listens to any of these people.”
This is exactly why I wrote a book on decision making and write about the subject here on X. The most overlooked skill.
Naval Ravikant reveals the brutal math of why most people end up in lives they never wanted
"We're used to fairly long cycles in which we're committed to things. You go to law school, four to five year cycle. You go be a lawyer, 40 year cycle. These are very long cycles. The amount of time we spend deciding what to do and who to do it with, very short. We spend three months deciding on a job we're going to be at for 10 years"
"If you're making a four year decision, spend a year thinking it through. Like really thinking it. 25% of the time"
Less is more, delete, delete, delete.
Barbara Corcoran offers a counterintuitive take on firing: the less you explain, the better it goes for everyone.
The real estate entrepreneur and Shark Tank investor learned this lesson the hard way on her very first firing.
"The first time I fired someone, I tried to explain to them what was lacking. And you never win the argument. You're better off saying, 'It's just you just don't fit in here.'"
Now her process is ruthlessly simple. Always Friday. Always brief.
"How do you fire people? Always on Friday."
When the employee sits down at 10:00, she delivers one line:
"It's not working out. You don't fit in here."
No further information. No debate. But she does add one thing most managers skip.
@BarbaraCorcoran tells them where they actually would succeed:
"I would tell them where they would fit in, what kind of job would make them very very successful, which I really believed. And my partner used to say when I fired someone, they walked out like they got a promotion."
The deeper principle behind her approach came from another painful lesson, her very first salesperson, whom she spent a year and a half trying to fix.
"I find you could always teach someone how to do a better job or do a different job, but you couldn't change attitude."
"She never changed her attitude. If her mother and father couldn't change her attitude, I thought, 'What am I doing changing her attitude?'"
That experience taught her that bad attitudes aren't just an individual problem. They're a contagion.
"You have somebody who has a bad attitude. They're going to suck other people into their attitude. They're like thieves in the night that put their hands in your pocket and steal your money."
So the moment she spots one, she acts:
"I fire them right away because I don't want them to contaminate my other salespeople. I'm the mother. I'm protecting them. I want a happy atmosphere. And the minute I see a complainer, I make an appointment to fire them."
A polite way of saying: most distractions arrive disguised as obligations.
“Do not worry that other people do not know you. But be concerned that you do not know them.” Konfucius
ClariCue retweeted
Telegram founder Pavel Durov reveals why he hasn't had depression in over 20 years:
"I normally never have depression. I don't remember having depression in the last 20 years at least. One of the reasons for that is I start doing things. I identify the problem, I can see a solution, and I start executing the strategy"
"People often make this mistake thinking, oh, I should just have some rest and then regain energy. This is not how it works. You gain energy by doing something. You start doing something, then it happens, you feel motivated, you feel inspired"
"If you are stuck in this loop of being worried about something, nothing's ever going to change"
"You can’t learn to see until you realize you are blind. Education is to help people realize they are blind and show them how to see a little. "
Alan Kay: worrydream.com/refs/Kay_2004…
I think our Western tendency to think linearly limits how we think about the Big Bang. In nature, almost everything is cyclical and constantly changing. Why not the universe itself?
