In the private world of privates, we have zero visibility into credit stress. The closest proxy we have is the bottom of the stack.
The consumer is strong as an ox if they can withstand this assault in the form of real paycheck shrinkage.
Yes, but wouldn't it be grand of wages were growing as fast as they were in 2020?
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Via @indeed today: "While overall growth has been stable over past 6 months, pay gains aren't being distributed equally, w/wage growth for middle-wage occupations lagging."
hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/09…
The Weekly Quill - Putting on the Gridz - The Data Center Buildout Upside
Log in to read now — the QI Research Deep Dive into the upside of Data Center Buildout
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Danielle DiMartino Booth Appears on 'Making Money with Charles Payne' To Discuss the Fed
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#economy #dimartinobooth #interestrates #federalreserve
My take on the Fed moves with Fintech TV
'Morning Movers'
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I will be speaking at the 52nd Annual NOIC - Register now to have a seat at the table!
October 28-31—
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The "unfiltered" market signal Warsh wanted to hear clear. The Fed's guidance has boxed it into a rate increase that may do little for inflation, while posing greater risks to financial conditions & economy. We expect a Sept rate hike to be the only move this year
@AnnaEconomist
Relentless trajectory of job losses has landed us w/a cycle ending in net job less territory w/ Permanent Job Losers (those out of work and seeing new employment for 27 weeks or longer) surpassing that of job leavers, those unemployed for 5 weeks or less
Is THIS the time to hike?
Based on this chart of the @uscensusbureau Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages, the hardest data gathered from >12M US employers to correct NFP, when did net job losses ensue?
Furthermore, as of latest quarter reported, when did job losses for the current CYCLE turn negative?
HIKE!
Consumer is Strong, Part 1 @AdamJJosephson
@3M Retailers in Q2 brought their inventories down...gas prices are up, interest rates are up.
Consumer remains cautious. because of that some retailers are expressing caution, waiting to place orders or replenish their shelves.
NO DOUBT 91.9% odds are priced.
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More salient question: Aside from investors positioned for this hike (See CBOE) WHY should the Fed be hiking? We've lost our compass.
Monetary policy is mandated to be made in the
"public interest," not Street dictators who profit if rates hiked.
Add @FINRA just-released August margin debt to the list of bullish signals
@AdamJJosephson notes it's "reached $1.454T, up 2.6% sequentially & 37% YoY. Its recent growth has been wildly disproportionate to GDP, highlighting growing divide between the real & financial economies.
Angels Manning Heaven's Trading Floors — Never
Forget 9-11-26
Dear QI & My Ever-Expanding Extended Family,
On this 9/11, I write my shortest preamble yet from the vacant bunk of my youngest...
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Got inflation-adjusted?
@ChicagoFed Advance Retail Trade Summary
(CARTS) tracks @uscensusbureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey(MRTS) on weekly basis, providing early snapshot of national retail spending.
Latest week in the red.
The Consumer is Strong!
cc @TylerHardt
@SoberLook
Log in now to read our take on how housing will affect the upcoming midterm elections:
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The Weekly Quill - Paying to Not Pay the House
— Midterms Turn on Housing & the U.S. Economy
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Log in now to read the Daily Feather — The Only Way to Start Your Day
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The Weekly Quill — Kevin Needs Dolly - The Ql Research Inflation Outlook
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The @federalreserve bogeyman is WAGE inflation:
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@indeed July wage growth tracker 2.5%
YoY....subdued wage growth has meant a loss of purchasing power as inflation-adjusted wages & salaries for private-sector workers fell for first time since 2022 to -0.4% YoY in Q2 2026.
