Chess, stats, forecasting, football, art + elaborate pranks. formerly trading @ SIG, analytics @Browns, Co-President @HarvardChess @Harvard_Sports '21

secret
Joined January 2019
Hal Finney
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Ella Papanek retweeted
Simulation has the potential to be transformative, but only if it's accurate. Today, we're sharing results of a comprehensive evaluation across 2,993 questions, with an industry-leading mean TVD of 7.62% and an MAE of 3.53%. More below, including the full post on our site.
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What is the maximum amount of influence an individual *should* be able to have on an outcome while still being able to trade the corresponding market?
16%<0.0001%
16%0.0001-0.01%
27%0.01-1%
41%>1%
74 votes • Final results
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1
1
14
2,079
would argue 0 is an impractical target. probability your vote determines election is ~1 in 60mil (for avg person)
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678
Quick survey game 📊 Rate yourself on 5 axes + redistribute your points. Join my highly unrepresentative sample: esharpe.xyz/experiments
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1,900
Major self doxx. 10 years of my life, quantified. First post on Substack (link below)
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2,435
Provable location is a new primitive. Privacy-preserving proof of where a device is—not just IP address. What's the first product you'd build? - Regulated trading (prediction markets, crypto) - Proof of observation (real-world data collection) - Location-based games - Something else? (@octetproof just shipped an SDK for iOS and Android: octetproof.com)
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NYC Subway needs a designated Talking Car. Want to chat with strangers? Get in. 🔶 Knicks takes 🔶 Neighborhood gossip 🔶 Crowdsourced advice Want to be left alone? Any other car. Make this happen @NYCMayor !!
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Ella Papanek retweeted
Discussion we had this evening. In NYC we are bringing back the IRISH HELLO. AKA THE 90s. Here’s how it works. You and your friends all share location. Sporadically throughout the day (lunch break, coffee walk, after work, before work) you check to see where they are. If you’re close to someone, you just show up at their location. Aka bring them a coffee to work, stop by their apt unannounced, kick shoes off and spill the tea. Spontaneously grab a drink or dinner because you’re in the same vicinity. And even if you’re not, meet in the middle. It’s easy to get around here. We’re nostalgic for a time that does not exist and yet we have the means to create it and still we refuse. Everyone is too cool or too nonchalant or too scared to appear desperate. Who gives a fuck. I think we should all be a little more desperate. You’re alive. You need people and people need you. Be the one who calls. Be the one who makes the plan, who sets the tone. I guarantee you’ll be surprised at who shows up. It’s better to be the person who tries than the person who doesn’t. HELLO I AM HERE.
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Ella Papanek retweeted
.@lightconexyz is hiring a trader/mm if you find it exciting to explore a greenfield category, to be the first trader in the world to think about and design strategies around impact markets, and to be part of a small team with seed-stage startup equity upside- please reach out!
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24,281
If two average NFL teams played on a neutral field, but one team faced 1st & 11 on every new set of downs, what would you guess the win probability would be?
28%50-55%
55%55-65%
7%65-75%
10%75%+
29 votes • Final results
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2,506
Every person on this airplane is super intently studying the safety information card during the demo. I feel like I’m on a hidden camera show
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3,521
Would you rather own x% of a startup that you think has y% chance of success or y% of a startup with x% chance of success? Assume x < y < 5 and "success" magnitude is equivalent
53%Own less, higher chance
47%Own more, lower chance
19 votes • Final results
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2,433
Ive noticed on avg my female friends are less comfortable accepting generosity from me (paying for group dinner, picking up a gift/grocery/errand) than my male friends. “No you don’t have to” vs “haha thanks let’s run up the tab”. Curious what other people’s experiences are /why?
5%You're F | F < M(my case)
18%You're F | M < F
59%You're M | F < M
18%You're M | M < F
22 votes • Final results
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2,481
assume you've already controlled for age + income + how well you know them
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1,773
Prediction markets let you bet on outcomes, but so much more is possible. This paper introduces Multiverse Finance, which splits the financial system into parallel universes so you can short the market today, but only if your candidate is going to lose the next election. 1/
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Ella Papanek retweeted
We’re thrilled to share that there will be a chess panel at the 2025 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference! Chess.com’s CCO, Danny Rensch be joined by Alexandra Botez, Levy Rozman, Daryl Morey, and Ella Papanek to go over all things chess, with the focus of “Checkmate and Innovate: The Future of Chess Growth”
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55,471
If you could swap your knowledge for the combined knowledge of N randomly selected people in your age group, what is the minimum N for which you’d accept this swap?
0%1
14%2-3
31%4-9
56%10+
59 votes • Final results
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8
2,255
Assume no major logistical issues (you’re still “you” in terms of personality, you still know who people are in your life, etc)
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1,474