https://xitter.cf/t.co/bEa7gd5Jep https://xitter.cf/t.co/vSrJXPNVL3 https://xitter.cf/t.co/zR994Oo9br

Canada
Joined June 2009
New Episode Out Now 🎙️ Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock) is the co-founder of GBE Energy, a proprietary trading firm specialising in power markets, and in this episode, he joins @moritzseibert for a fascinating look inside a market few investors ever get to see. toptradersunplugged.com/podc…
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+1 to that @cdpaddock
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The best energy traders don't just grind for consistent monthly returns. Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock), founder of GBE (power trading firm), on why elite P&L is lumpy by design: "5 to 10 trades make up the majority of your year." "The rest you're just trying to learn, stay up, milk the market, pick up dollars here and there." "You accumulate P&L — but more importantly, accumulate future learning you can apply to a big setup." "Have the capital behind you to throw at that setup." "You can't set a monthly target. It's very chunky and volatile." "We've always just thought about: trade well. Results come." "Leaner years sometimes just mean there weren't opportunities — not that you traded poorly."
What It's Like Building a Proprietary Power Trading Firm with Cory Paddock Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock) has been trading the physical power grid since the early 2000s. He built his own firm from scratch in 2014 — trading his own capital — and has navigated every major paradigm shift in U.S. energy markets since coal dominated the grid. "It's the perfect amount of darkness. The information is public — but it's in the dark." We cover: - How Cory built a point of view on paradigm shifts before the market caught up - Why power trading sits at the intersection of economics & physics — and why that matters for edge - Why backtesting more than a few years of power data is basically useless — the grid isn't the same grid - LMP & locational marginal pricing: how physical grid constraints turn into alpha if you know where to look - The 5–10 trades that make your year — and why forcing setups in the lean periods kills you - How GBE stripped pay uncertainty out of trader comp so people can just focus on trading well - What it actually feels like watching your own money swing in real-time — and when it stops feeling that way Thanks so much Cory for coming on Odds on Open! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:09 Starting GBE and finding trading edge 01:38 Overview of electricity markets and pricing 02:05 Power trading structure and deregulated markets 04:11 Research pipeline for market data analysis 04:56 Domain knowledge and renewable energy trading 06:39 LLMs and AI tools for quants 07:49 Grid data and intraday market signals 09:25 Finding alpha in electricity markets 10:13 Paradigm shifts and regime change insights 13:19 Coal to gas, wind, and solar trends 14:39 Data centers, EVs, and load growth 16:47 Recruiting talent in energy trading firms 17:38 Gen Z quants and algorithmic trading skills 21:55 Outliers, agency, and Gen Z traders 24:11 Culture and innovation in quant finance 27:29 Trading personal capital and risk management 28:06 PJM West Hub and market dynamics 32:19 Five-minute tick data and volatility 34:49 High-conviction trades and alpha generation 35:35 Incentive alignment and trader performance 36:42 Pay structure and removing stress capital 39:22 Motivation and purpose in trading careers 40:00 Passing knowledge to the next generation 42:04 Host reflections on electricity trading 42:14 Closing thoughts and sign-off
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Here's my 1st piece of overt political propaganda--the first of a series about the systems that undergird our daily lives, which are always one generation of inattention away from catastrophe. Message: they're important! Paywall is lifted, please pass on. bit.ly/4gBYpuC
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A great trading unpack with @BrendanFarris4, TOU gas marketer and ex $TA gas/power trader.
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Video supplement to the @MacaesBruno ‘Letter from Michigan’ piece in the @NewStatesman.
Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno21 Oct 2024
My dispatch from a Trump town hall in Michigan. Also on the poverty and dysfunction all over America today. Shocking to a European
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno10 Oct 2024
How many people have been killed in Gaza? I don’t take the numbers coming out of the Gaza Health Ministry seriously:
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno9 Oct 2024
Talked about all my favourite topics in this podcast
The geopolitics of 2024 and beyond. My conversation with the inimitable @MacaesBruno. (00:02:45) The US election and critical role of Michigan (00:10:30) Travel in geopolitical analysis (00:15:20) The struggles of the West (00:17:44) AI and @PalantirTech in modern warfare (00:26:40) China, semiconductors, and electric vehicles (00:35:45) What Vaclav Smill gets right and wrong (00:41:52) Energy as flow, advanced solar, and entropy
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno17 Feb 2024
Reposting my text on how to think about the different conflicts in the world today. Pick the right side please
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno17 Dec 2023
Yeshayahu Leibowitz, The Territories, 1968
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Steel is the skeleton, concrete its flesh, copper is the nervous system, oil its food, fossil energy its life force. The built world and its material inputs are itself another body, an extension of our own physical bodies. Birds build nests, wombats tunnel but humans… we build worlds. This built world is a nanny that nurtures & protects us and the only thing that permits the carrying capacity for 8 billion of us to exist on this planet. Don’t get me wrong. I love going hiking and camping but nature is not our nurturer. It is constantly trying to kill us. Our species never lived in harmony with it, we died in harmony with it and that was mostly children under 5 and women in childbirth. Everyday I go into battle against mother nature in the emergency department. Without this medical battle against nature’s will my son, his mother, my cousin, my father and my uncle would be long dead. All of the core ingredients of this built world that protects us are dependent on fossil fuels for their extraction, construction and reproduction. And this is why we are not taking “meaningful action” on climate change To get a sense of just how large a requirement it is to replace that fossil fuelled “life force” consider that we use 100 billion barrels of oil equivalents (BOE) of fossil fuels annually (~36 billion barrels of oil ~30 billion BOE of gas and ~34 billion BOE of coal.) Each barrel of oil contains 1700kWh of work potential. Compare that to an average human work day where 0.6kWh can be generated. Therefore each BOE contains about 10.5 years of human labour equivalence (~5 years after conversion losses.) That means that the modern human enterprise of industrial civilization is underpinned by 500 billion fossil slaves worth of energy added to our measly 8 billion person workforce (~2 billion + of whom are too young or too old to work) The idea that we can retire this enormous army of fossil slave labour at all, let alone in 27 years, and maintain our industrial civilization, our extraordinary carrying capacity or even a fraction of our current population is laughable. Industrial civilization cannot exist without fossil fuels. Nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal etc require fossil fuels for their construction and supply chains and unfortunately will not scale sufficiently and on meaningful timescales to replace this unimaginably gargantuan once in our species lifetime fossil army. This is not to argue that we should give up and not scale our most viable alternative energies but we must not live in delusion and unrealistic expectations. We are wedded to the fossil created body of our built world.
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Health is forgotten until it's the only thing that matters.
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno31 Oct 2023
It’s quite refreshing to see how Ben Gurion, who knew a thing or two about the world (as opposed to today’s clerical politicians), talk about the depth of Palestinian hatred without bringing up antisemitism or Islam
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@MacaesBruno31 Oct 2023
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Poet and Novelist Heba Abu Nada, 32, Reported Dead in Israeli Bombardment. She wrote yesterday: “If we die, know that we are content and steadfast, and convey on our behalf that we are people of truth.” arablit.org/2023/10/20/poet-… via @arablit
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Are renewables exponentially becoming cheaper? Perspective from an engineer who has worked in interconnection🪡 I often see this take from tpot types vs electric professionals on Twitter. I’m not here to argue renewables are bad, not worth pursuing, or emissions don’t matter…
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Replying to @CharlesCMann
@CharlesCMann, I'm expanding the thought to this: “Sustainability” is merely a goal, whereas “sustainment” is a plan, a program, a set of actions. The one says “Aspire;” the other says “Here’s how to get it done.” And keep it done. “Unrelenting endurance” is the commitment.
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A trader has to react instantly to bits of news as they emerge even if all the facts aren't known. Everyone else should wait for clarity.
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno11 Oct 2023
Remarkable reporting from @YousefHammash. Had to watch twice
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