This El Niño keeps breaking records. Off Peru, surface waters are as much as 8.9°C (16°F) above average, while subsurface temperatures reach 10.5°C (18.9°F) above average. In parts of the central Pacific, water above 25°C (77°F) extends to a depth of 150 m (500 ft)!

Will it be a snowy winter? Here's what the latest data shows! ☃️ A record El Niño will bring ample moisture to the U.S. this winter — outside of the Pacific Northwest — but that moisture won't always be met with cold air. That's especially true in December, when the Northeast and Great Lakes are confidently predicted to have less snow than average. On these maps, areas with a dashed outline mean that five out of six models agree on the outcome shown, which conveys confidence. These maps are best interpreted as a broad estimate of winter snowfall patterns, rather than a precise forecast for any one location. From December into January, a signal grows for more snow than normal across the West and Plains, stretching from California's Sierra Nevada to Denver and maybe even Dallas. There's also a bubble of above average snow that develops over the southern and central Appalachians, including Atlanta, Columbia, South Carolina as well as Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina. A similar snow signal continues into February. Although there's a relatively strong signal for less snow than normal across New England all winter, the rest of the Northeast is a more interesting case. There will likely be many big coastal storms which could bring rain to the coast but the potential for significant snow inland. These "high ceiling" storms appear to be a wildcard in the winter ahead. It will all depend on whether there's enough cold air in place to cash in on all that moisture as snow.