10 THINGS TO EXPECT in THE NFL TONIGHT: MNF: Bills v Rams. 9% Rain, 68°F. 1) The Bills had their flawless start to the season snuffed in Week 4 against The Patriots, and in that loss came another one to DT Ed Oliver -- who remains out with a knee injury tonight. If there was any takeaway on the Bills' defense last season, it would have been their rush defense; They allowed the most Rush TDs (24) and 3rd most YPC (5.1) in 2025. Oliver played just 3 games last season as well... this will be a big hit. 2) The Rams rush offense has been commonly known as a committee of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, yet in the last two weeks (vs DEN, PHI) Williams has notched >71% snaps, a mark he didn't clear for the final 11 games of his 2025 campaign. Corum saw just 15% of snaps in Week 4, his lowest of the season. 3) Puka Nacua returned last week to 90% of snaps, racking up 127 scrimmage yards off 12 targets. This Bills coverage unit is sitting Top 10 in zone coverage rate, with 2-HI safety looks of Cover 2/4, and 1-HI of Cover 3. Nacua's YPRR vs zone is just 1.8 compared to his 6.75 against man, but it's still so early in his season that this is a moot point. 4) Positionally, Buffalo has given up the 3rd highest TGT/RR to Tight Ends... yet Rams just lost Terrance Ferguson (IR), who also was the team leader in target share against zone. Despite what the depth chart claims, the Rams TE1 is Tyler Higbee. Tight Ends with >60% RS vs BUF: - Henry 5/5, 62 Yds - LaPorta 6/7, 52 Yds - Schultz 4/8, 35 Yds 5) There were 6 running backs to run for 100+ yards this week, could James Cook III join that list. This season, nearly a quarter of James' carries have been explosive runs -- leading the league. The Rams, who still miss Myles Garrett, have ranked B10 in STUFF% and Yards B4 Contact. While Rams have allowed a Top 5 backfield target rate, they have boasted the same ranking in the average depth of those targets (aDOT); A lot of dumpoffs, not a lot of meaningful production. 6) The Bills have already ruled out Joshua Palmer, yet also have their top offseason acquisition in DJ Moore questionable. Any reaggravation to Moore's shoulder would be deeply problematic, would prefer (as a fan) for Bills to err on the side of caution. This already was a tough matchup in the air, with Rams defense allowing the fewest receptions to wideouts. Keon Coleman has shown his upside, already being halfway to his 2025 yards total, but this spot doesn't seem to provide a ton of upside. 7) As you could infer, they instead have allowed the highest TGT/RR rate to slot receivers. Khalil Shakir is coming off his highest snap rate (76%) and receiving production (7/8, 82 Yds), while now getting another strong matchup. 8) Granted, opposing QBs have generated little production in the air overall (recent to past): - Hurts 12/27, 93 Yds - Nix 17/34, 186 Yds - Winston 11/27, 111 Yds - Purdy 25/34, 205 Yds All 4 of these QBs went under their personal pass lines, along with Josh Allen's current 245.5 line. Rams sit 2nd vs Deep Ball Rate. 9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, ETC. Unsure why you would have Tyler Bass nor Harrison Mevis in your fantasy league, yet each of them also facing a Top 10 defense against Field Goal Att. These are for differing reasons, as BUF RedZone defense has struggled (69% OPP Score Rate, 23rd), while LAR defense has forced the 4th most Punts. The Rams have given up just a single RedZone rush touchdown (Allen 📉) while Bills have given up 9 RedZone Pass TDs (Adams 📈). On Thursday/Monday primetime games, the dogs are 5-0 ATS in the L3 weeks. The O/U is 4-5, in favor of unders. I could see a path towards the under here (54.5) if both teams generate success on ground, leading to a ton of clock burn.

Malonga o14.5 Pts | FD -130 9.23.26 Play #1 | #Storm Dallas is locked into 7th or 8th here. If NYL loses, then they are sitting at 7th regardless. However, if NYL wins and DAL wins, then the result of the WSH/CHI game decides DAL's fate. In either world, Dallas isn't in control, so no reason to extend any piece beyond 32' here. Jose Fernandez has already mentioned that he wants to monitor the starters' minutes, which was seemingly true when game script favored it. Expecting a competitive game for Storm's home finale. Malonga scored 37 vs DAL earlier this season, and expecting 24-28' here tonight. She averages 17.2 Pts/25 with Ezi off & Natisha/Flau on.

1H CASH AND TWITTER SWEEP 🧹 Reese o14.5 Pts ✅🧨

Angel Reese o14.5 Pts | FD -133 8.18.26 Play #3 | #ATLDream w/ @RealAKDFS Big fan of Angel to score here with the weight advantage on Smith, where she shot 10/19 from the field last meeting for 23 Pts. For a while now, we have monitored bigs with a weight advantage against Smith, though frontcourt players overall have been able to thrive. Here are all frontcourt starters with 28+ min vs Aces, and bolded are those defended by Smith: - Austin 29 Pts (12/20) - Iriafen 15 Pts (6/11) | Austin 20 Pts (8/21) - Boston 21 Pts (9/15) | Timpson 4 Pts (2/6) - Jones 8 Pts (2/11) | Stewart 26 Pts (10/20) - DiLeo 20 Pts (8/13) - Austin 25 Pts (10/18) - Boston 19 Pts (9/14) HM: Harrison 26 Pts (22min) Now back without Brionna Jones, Reese should play 33-35' in a competitive game.

Aneesah Morrow o18.5 PR | FD -122 8.18.26 Play #2 | #TempoUp Nyara Sabally is going to be out for a couple of weeks with her calf injury, while Maria Conde and Julie Allemand are both out as well. Sykes returns, can't imagine anything over 20-24' here, against the team she coincidentally suffered this foot injury against. We're presented with a super-high 192.5 total, which is fueled by an expected 100+ Pt scoring outing from Indiana's side; Their 101.5 Team Total is the highest set line in WNBA history. We have to prioritize Tempo players with scoring upside who also should get extra run in blowout scenarios. This opens up Aneesah Morrow to absolutely thrive, who ran 15 minutes in the 2H of last game after Sabally was unable to return. One of her or Sykes will come off the bench here, with the remaining starters being Rice, Mabrey, Jus and Harrison. The Tempo also play tomorrow against an almost equally difficult opponent in The Mystics. Sykes, Mabrey and then the veterans of Nurse and Fagbenle will be first out in blowout. Morrow, Rice and Juskaite are my favorites to run big even in blowout scenario. The Fever post break have allowed the most OPP OREB (10.6) and 3rd highest Putback rate (4%); They are a mid-pack defense that is 4th in PACE while B5 in OPP C3 and Rim rates. Once again, our same two targets seem prepped for a big one. Morrow has 19+ PR in 13/13 games with 23+ minutes.

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X FREE FRIDAY RECAP | 8.14.26: ✅ - Fever -6.5 | -115, 1u ✅ - Malonga u20.5 Pts | Builder -128, 1u ✅ - Paige o5.5 Ast | BOV -156, 0.85u All momentum is ours as we head into the weekend 🧹

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Rhyne Howard u3.5 3PM | TS -135 7.11.26 Play #1 | #DareToDream Fading the home demon against a PDX high-point defense that held her to just 7 attempts last game. The Fire defense is B5 in Rates allowed to Rim, Paint, Cutters and Drives lol -- insane. They still throwing high traps and forcing people inside, so fading Rhyne from distance as she is the top culprit is a fine idea. 2/10 this season with 9 or fewer attempts.

Burrell o14.5 Pts | FD -118, 1u 'FREE FRIDAY' 7.10.26 #5 Have no reason to not run this back. Sparks side is simple, go at Chicago inside and you will thrive like all us teams do. Chicago is looking to push PACE here and Sparks certainly encourage it as they sit 1st in PACE in their L10 games. Sky have allowed the 2nd highest drive finish rate and 2nd most free throws, so that is just great for Rae Burrell. Burrell (40.5%) and Hamby (30%) are the two drive rate leaders. Rae Burrell just played 36 minutes; She is averaging 17.8 PPG and is 5/6 to this mark with 26+ minutes against non-T5 positional defenses without Plum. She has a 23% USG here. That drive rate is insane, and other PG-SFs with >20% drive rates & 25+ minutes have made their mark (min 15% USG): - Copper 25 Pts (19 FGA, 23%) - Leite 14 PPG (9 FGA/gp, 25min, 36.6%)

Harrison o19.5 PR | DK -128, 1u Allemand o6.5 Ast | Builder -113, 0.7u 'FREE FRIDAY' 7.10.26 #3 & #4 | #Tempo Harrison bumped with Sabally out, sorry y'all but posting it for the transparency. This Dallas defense is still ranking poorly against both Drive & Cut finishes, while B3 vs OPP RPG, Putbacks and FTA. This is all a recipe for slashing bigs to thrive. If we look at The Tempo, Harrison has a 15% drive rate (beating out Sabally) while Juskaite has a 25% rate (team high). Juskaite had 3 fouls in the 1Q last game and has had one game this season with Sykes/Sabally out where she notched 29 min, should sit 24-28 regardless of Sabally today. If we look at other bigs with 25+ min and >15% drive rates, we get this list vs DAL: - Stewart 29 Pts (16 FGA) | 9 Reb - Harrison 13 Pts (10 FGA) | 5 Reb - ONO 11 Pts (24min) | 8 Reb - Malonga 37 Pts (24 FGA) | 12 Reb - A'ja 32 Pts (21 FGA) | 9 Reb - Cardoso 26 Pts (13 FGA) | 9 Reb This does not include big time performances from other bigs like Howard (35 PR) and Jonquel Jones (29 PR). Howard has a 33% Cut Rate, so she gets that advantage. Harrison here has the same Drive/Cut rates as Malonga & Stewart, and higher cut rates than Wilson. Also fun is the passers in the games that have these cutting bigs: - Sabrina 5 Ast - Lacan 5 Ast - Natisha 11 Ast | Flau'Jae 8 Ast - Chelsea 8 Ast - Diggins 6 Ast | Cloud 6 Ast - Miles 8 Ast Allemand is seeing 8.6 APG and 18.2 potentials per game in those without Sykes this season. With Mabrey on and Sykes off this season, Allemand is at 6.7 Ast/30, and she'll have minutes with Mabrey off (5) while also having up to 35-40' upside.

Sydney Taylor o15.5 Pts | DK -124, 1u 'FREE FRIDAY' 7.10.26 #2 | #Tempo Syd world, still no Diggins. 30% USG last game with Sloot starting, which only increased as game progressed given Sheldon started in the 2H. Was in foul trouble this game yet should be at 28-32 minutes her today. Syd is seeing 22 Pts, 26.3 PRA per 28 with Diggins/Jackson off & Sheldon on. This goes up to 27.4 Pts with Cardoso on in a 35min sample. Sparks presenting a similar defense as Chicago’s last opponent in PHX, where they rank B3 vs CnS 3PA Freq, Cut Finish, OPP RA yet above average vs Post Up play. Granted, Cardoso is more effective as a Roller (10th) and Putback (14th) big, so can do alright. Here are recent non-Post Up, non 3PT bigs vs LAS: - Malonga 2 Pts (1/10) - Harrison 9 Pts (4/4) - Howard 15 Pts (6/13) - Stokes 4 Pts (1/1, 30min) - Mack 11 Pts (5/9, 35min) Not a good log. Meanwhile, Copper’s 41 Pts, Mabrey’s 53 & Flau’Jae’s 25 is a better sign for these slashing guards like Taylor. We’ve seen 6 guards since June 1st have 25+ min & 25% usg vs LAS, these 6 went 8/8 to 16+ Pts and 5/8 had 30+ Pts. As an aside they also went nuclear on the glass (Arike 6, Flau 8.5, Kah 10, Mabrey 6, Miles 4).

Hamby o2.5 Ast | -150, 0.65u Hamby 4+ Ast | +165, 0.15u FREE FRIDAY 7.10.26 #1 | #Sparks Hamby has averaged 5 APG across the last 3 seasons against The Sky and 5.8 APG in the 4 against Cardoso, with 5+ in each of those. With Stevens on Nneka, Hamby’s handoff action is going to be key at keeping Cardoso out of the paint. Recently we have seen Cardoso be pinned into Corners, which makes opposing POAs able to notch big passing numbers as you can find cutters easily in that gap. I don’t think this can happen here against Atkins/Rae, but will see. Still, in L30 days, 6/7 Centers with 25+ minutes have 3+ assists. Hamby has played just 3 games without Plum against B5 Center Ast defenses (CHI 13th), where she notched 9, 4 and 2 Ast off 7 potentials a game. Mostly buying into upside here but hopefully last Sparks game is signs their offense can succeed more consistently. She passes most to Nneka, Atkins & Wheeler this season for those who are seeking corro pieces.

10 THINGS TO EXPECT in COMMISSIONER'S CUP: Aces @ Liberty | 6.30.26 1) The Commissioner's Cup tips off today at 7PM ET, featuring The Aces vs The Liberty at Barclay's. The Liberty have lost 3 of their L4 games, yet that one win was against The Aces. Last game vs Valks was likely a bit more of a resting scenario for NYL, though Satou Sabally will remain out here with a concussion. Neither of these teams are really in top form here. Breanna Stewart on playing Vegas in CC: "The toughest part is that we fly cross-country tomorrow and have to play the next day. But we're very familiar with Vegas' game, obviously knowing there's gonna be some tweaks and changes to their scout and also ours." 2) A'ja Wilson is questionable here. She hurt her ankle against Chicago, to which she returned from, but some swelling overnight could put her availability in question. She noted, “It’s alright. It’s an ankle so it’ll snap back. I should be good after some nice treatment.” Of course have to presume she's in for analysis sake, otherwise unsure how Aces can remotely compete with NYL's size. 3) The Liberty team is sitting 14th in PACE in their L7 games, while The Aces are down at 12th... in for a slow one. In this same span, NYL is sitting 1st in OPP FTA, CnS 3PA, and against Post/Hook play. In turn, they are allowing Top 5 Pullup, Rim, and Floater rates. 4) Leonie Fiebich was the Chelsea Gray defender, and she guarded her full court as often as possible. Gray notched an impressive 11 Pts in the 2H of last game (9 in 4Q), yet did so off 4/5 shooting (2/3 from deep). Gray also notched 8 assists this game, 6 of which were at the rim. Normally that's a strong distribution, but 3 of those were kickouts to tough drives while 2 were exceptionally impressive. Can watch tape here. As hard as this matchup is, Chelsea Gray rises in big moments. 5) A'ja defended by Jonquel Jones, which leaves Nalyssa Smith the tall task of Breanna Stewart. Smith produced just 7 points and a single rebound in the prior H2H. Her rebound edge remains low given her defense on Jones paired with A'ja sitting on the block for contesting shots + rebound collection. With Chennedy Carter back in action, Smith's ceiling is also a bit lower, albeit LVA should pursue her size here. Would expect Smith at 24-27min here. 6) In relation, A'ja is going to have a tough time inside. She ended the prior meeting with just 16 points, with 5 of her 7 makes being from jumpshots. Solving A'ja is how you can solve The Aces. The Liberty look to always front A'ja and have Jonquel present for any paint touch. This 3-ball will be open for Wilson, but she went 0/3 in the 1H and did not shoot another in 2H. The defense on A'ja still had two halves, where the 2H she shot just 7 times and drew Jonquel as a primary assignment more often than in 1H where Jonquel would be helper. 7) A'ja scoring 26 Pts will be a tall task if she can't get downhill or at the stripe, though volume can remain high as all of these 2nd/3rd level jumpshots are open. Jonquel did have 3 fouls in the first 4 minutes of the 2H, so possible she goes back to the roaming spot we saw in 1H. Jonquel had just 5 rebounds, while Sabrina notched 10 -- with 9 on the defensive end. She guarded a lot of Jackie, but also Loyd in corners. Without pinpointing where these NYL frontcourt players will be defensively, the whole NYL rebound committee seems like guesswork. 8) Aces defense is remarkably similar to NYL's in June, sitting 15th vs Pullup frequency while being Top 5 vs Post, CnS and FTA. Starting Aces assignments were Smith on Jonquel, Talbot on Stewie, and A'ja off Satou. Satou got up three 3PA in her 8 minutes of play with this assignment. This was the game Satou got hurt, and in the 2H we saw A'ja directly on Stewart and Gray matched on Fiebich. Astier started on Sunday in place of Satou while Laney-Hamilton started 2H here, so will see which lineup DeMarco goes with. In theory A'ja should be able to post up better rebound numbers here and posted up 16 rebounds per meeting last season. 9) Stewart with 20 points against the Talbot assignment off 16 FGA. An 18.5 Pt line in general is low for Stewie, and facing into a weak Pullup defense should be a recipe for success here. Her shot diet was incredibly difficult, going just 1-2 at the rim. I was more surprised at Jonquel's lack of volume given her size advantage over Smith. Rather, putting JJ into actions to get good looks for Sabrina against Smith's drop seemed like priority. NYL can generate good volume here, so may just leave Jonquel on short end of the stick. Can't back Sabrina at the 2.5 3PM line; She hasn't notched 3 makes in any of her 8 games this season. 10) Pauline Astier has capitalized the most in minutes without Sabally, playing 23 & 25 in the last two games while Johannes has remained below 20 minutes. Worth noting that Laney-Hamilton is still ramping up back from injury, so could see 15-20 herself here as well.

Marina Mabrey u4.5 Ast | DK -150 'FREE FRIDAY' Play #1 | #Tempo The Tempo lost Brittney Sykes to a foot injury. We still haven't gotten an official update on the depth of this injury, but I can't imagine she returns quickly. With both Sykes and Rice off this season, Mabrey is averaging 25 PRA per 30 (20.4 Pts) off 16.7 FGA per game. She has a limited minutes sample that also includes Allemand on, where she shoots up to 26.8 Pts yet just 3.2 RA. No world where Mabrey doesn't fire up 20 shots here. Last season with Lacan/Hartley in she had just 3.9 APG (31.2 MPG) and was under 4.5 in 11/16.

SIX GAMES WEDNESDAY.. Malonga o22.5 PRA | b365 -110 6.17.26 Play #1 | #Storm w/ @SammyGprops Portland is so bad it's hilarious how this team started strong. They have lost 5/6 and won by just a point. In this span they rank: - 15th in DRTG - 15th in 2nd Chance - 15th in Pts off TOV - 15th in Fastbreak - 11th in OPP RPG Malonga back at 25 minutes here after returning from injury and that last game was 5 days ago, so could be closer to her true 32 minute ceiling. She has a beyond-elite 30.3% usage rate this season. Recent bigs: - Coffey 24 PRA (41.3 FS) in 21min | Howard 27 PRA in 26min - Shepard 29 PRA (32.8 FS) | Kuier 24.5 FS - A'ja 41 PRA (50 FS) | Smith 25 PRA (26.5 FS) | Talbot 21 PRA - Ogwumike 39 PRA (47.4 FS) | Hamby 34 PRA (45.4 FS) Domination. Dom Malonga.