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September is CLOSED 🫅🗣️
+29.72u Total | 40% ROI
+13.89u in FIBA | 43.4% ROI
Our futures settled, the women hooped around the world, and we had the best month this year!
Go read that final sentence… 👀💵
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
MNF W6: WSH v SF. 64°F, 11% Rain.
1) No Croskey-Merritt (groin) for The Commanders tonight, which will leave Rachaad White as the lead back. Tough timing, as Daniels had only just returned to Washington last week and JCM was coming off his most productive game of the season.
White already played 60% of snaps last week compared to Ekeler's 10%; Expect him to handle bulk of carry and route share.
2) Commanders' backfield will be running into a beat up SF Front 7 that is missing Greenlaw (SUSP), Bosa (knee/calf), Wallow (hamstring) and has RDT Halton questionable. The Strong Safety Sigle is also out here with an ankle injury, so yea, injury bug is here.
On the season, The 49ers have allowed the 3rd highest Success Rate (45.1%), yet by far the lowest Explosive Rate (3%!!). This leaves us with 3 RBs already notching 20+ carries vs SF:
- Love 21 Att, 90 Yds
- Achana 20 Att, 74 Yds
- Wilson 20 Att, 61 Yds
Love leads the group at 4.3 YPC, with a long of just 8 yards.
3) It doesn't get much better injury wise on the offensive side for SF, with Deebo Samuel already ruled out and Mike Evans possibly joining him with a rib issue. Bear in mind this WR core is already missing Stribling, Pearsall and Robinson on IR.
From Larry Kreuger, "Just came off the field at #49ers’ Saturday practice. Based on what I saw, I’d be very surprised if Mike Evans plays on Monday. He was off to the side."
4) With both Evans and Samuel out, Christian McCaffrey has generated 0.27 TPRR, followed by Kittle at 0.26 TPRR.
This season, The Commanders have ran 2-HI safety looks on 59.4% of opposing drop backs -- 3rd highest rate in the league. Logically, this coverage look funnels more receptions to RBs.
McCaffrey has notched 0.28 TPRR vs 2-HI, and 0.33 TPRR against their top individual look of Cover 2.
5) Hard to understate how incredible Brock Purdy has been. He is now the all time leader in EPA/Play (min. 48 GP), while leading the field in Passer Rating this season (119.3) despite facing three consensus Top 3 pass coverages in LAR, SEA and DEN. Wow.
Now, he faces a WSH secondary that not only ranks B10 vs backfield receivers (McCaffrey), yet also with these marks:
- 69.3% Catch Rate (24th)
- 1,380 Air Yards (21st)
- 11.2% Lead WR TGT Rate (28th, Evans 📈)
6) Jayden Daniels is of course a different QB, currently leading the field in Scramble Rate at 16.3%. The 49ers have given up just 5 scrambles this season, good for 2nd fewest in the league.
This stems from their high volume of 1-HI safety schemes, which they run at the 5th highest rate. Here is Daniels vs the other Top 10 in 1-HI Freq%:
- 7 Rush, 69 Yds vs DAL
2025
- 11 Rush, 68 Yds vs NYG
- 10 Rush, 52 Yds vs CHI
Conflicting.
7) Jayden Daniels has had his struggles against 1-HI, producing 5.02 Yds/DB, which ranks 34th of 42 QBs with >20 DBs.
We already noted the Front 7 injuries for SF, so would expect their current Top 5 Pressure Rate to regress a bit. Daniels has sat at a B5 1.63 Yds/DB against Pressure, so a clean pocket is really key to any hope at a WSH win tonight.
8) Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, yet didn't participate in Thursday's practice while being limited in Friday's. Granted, WSH limited a ton of their offensive contributors, so may be less important than typical.
He leads the team in TPRR against both 1-HI (0.25) and Cover 1 (0.24).
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
After The Broncos home-upset Seattle on TNF, non-Sunday primetime dogs are now 7-2 since Week 1.
No team is giving up more FGA/gp in their L3 games than San Francisco, at a whopping 3.7. This was most recently capped off by Jason Myers, who went 5/5 with all being 40+ Yards. It has now been 4 straight weeks where an opposing kicker has 3+ FGA.
The Commanders have given up 14 Pass TDs (3rd most) despite just 5 GP, with 12 of them occurring in the RedZone and 7 to Tight Ends (Kittle 📈).
Rhyne Howard o19.5 PR | Fanatics -115
10.19.26 Play #1 | #DareToDream
Valkyries win the defensive grinder of Game 1 68-64, and the question will be if The Dream can generate enough offense to reward their defensive efforts. This seems challenging, as Atlanta had their lowest expected shot quality percentage of the season AND had 94% of their shots contested.
After a 14 Pt opening half, Angel Reese produced 0 Pts off 0/2 shooting in 17 2H minutes. She noted, "I don't think they really did anything [to defend me differently]... I wasn't aggressive enough with the ball and trying to get the ball and get to my spot. So I'm definitely gonna do a better job of that next game."
Some truth to this, yet Reese saw just 19 halfcourt touches in the 2H compared to her 28 in the first. With Valkyries collapsing on all drives (which oftentimes works given Stokes' shot blocking opportunity), she does have dump off opportunity.
On the other hand, she scored all 14 Pts on non-Stokes players (5/8 1H), while shooting 0-2 when against her. For GSV, this makes their job easy, just keep Stokes on Reese and deny the switch. In fact, Reese did not see a single assignment outside of Stokes in that scoreless 2H.
Worth noting that Reese did have 12' of time where Stokes was not on the floor, so that will be her productive time. Leaves her scoring a bit unpredictable.
Overall, Atlanta's effective field-goal percentage (eFG; 35.9%) and expected shot quality (43.3%) were its lowest of the season (regular season + playoffs). What's crazy is that up until now, Valkyries have been deploying high pickups these playoffs; Against both Dallas and Aces, every single game had an average pickup distance of >45', yet against Atlanta in Game 1 this was just 37.7'.
This, paired with more switching and less doubling (compared to what we saw vs Paige/Jackie), pretty much translates to a simple "Beat us in Isolation" defense. With Rhyne Howard being in a shooting slump near all playoffs, Gray's hand injury, and Reese still remaining inconsistent away from the rim, it's a good strategy.
This is where I think Rhyne Howard remains a strong bet to have solid shooting volume. She noted postgame, "They forced us into a game of basketball that we don't play".
Someone call for an NBA Spot 👀
Day'Ron Sharpe 10+ Pts | -125
Day'Ron Sharpe DD | +358
10.21.26 Play #1 | #NetsWorld w/ @SammyGprops
Sharpe moves from a bench role last season to the clear cut starting center. Should be in for good minutes as long as he avoids foul trouble. With 25-32 minutes vs non top 5 paint defenses he is over in 5/7 games over the last 2 years and has notched a double double in 3 of those 7.
Will get matched up against Diabate for the most part here, when covered by Moussa he avg 30.1 pts/75. Last year in 29 minutes vs CHA he scored 20 points. He avg 12.3 pts per 30 mins in the preseason, while now has an actual viable 3ball.
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
MNF W6: WSH v SF. 64°F, 11% Rain.
1) No Croskey-Merritt (groin) for The Commanders tonight, which will leave Rachaad White as the lead back. Tough timing, as Daniels had only just returned to Washington last week and JCM was coming off his most productive game of the season.
White already played 60% of snaps last week compared to Ekeler's 10%; Expect him to handle bulk of carry and route share.
2) Commanders' backfield will be running into a beat up SF Front 7 that is missing Greenlaw (SUSP), Bosa (knee/calf), Wallow (hamstring) and has RDT Halton questionable. The Strong Safety Sigle is also out here with an ankle injury, so yea, injury bug is here.
On the season, The 49ers have allowed the 3rd highest Success Rate (45.1%), yet by far the lowest Explosive Rate (3%!!). This leaves us with 3 RBs already notching 20+ carries vs SF:
- Love 21 Att, 90 Yds
- Achana 20 Att, 74 Yds
- Wilson 20 Att, 61 Yds
Love leads the group at 4.3 YPC, with a long of just 8 yards.
3) It doesn't get much better injury wise on the offensive side for SF, with Deebo Samuel already ruled out and Mike Evans possibly joining him with a rib issue. Bear in mind this WR core is already missing Stribling, Pearsall and Robinson on IR.
From Larry Kreuger, "Just came off the field at #49ers’ Saturday practice. Based on what I saw, I’d be very surprised if Mike Evans plays on Monday. He was off to the side."
4) With both Evans and Samuel out, Christian McCaffrey has generated 0.27 TPRR, followed by Kittle at 0.26 TPRR.
This season, The Commanders have ran 2-HI safety looks on 59.4% of opposing drop backs -- 3rd highest rate in the league. Logically, this coverage look funnels more receptions to RBs.
McCaffrey has notched 0.28 TPRR vs 2-HI, and 0.33 TPRR against their top individual look of Cover 2.
5) Hard to understate how incredible Brock Purdy has been. He is now the all time leader in EPA/Play (min. 48 GP), while leading the field in Passer Rating this season (119.3) despite facing three consensus Top 3 pass coverages in LAR, SEA and DEN. Wow.
Now, he faces a WSH secondary that not only ranks B10 vs backfield receivers (McCaffrey), yet also with these marks:
- 69.3% Catch Rate (24th)
- 1,380 Air Yards (21st)
- 11.2% Lead WR TGT Rate (28th, Evans 📈)
6) Jayden Daniels is of course a different QB, currently leading the field in Scramble Rate at 16.3%. The 49ers have given up just 5 scrambles this season, good for 2nd fewest in the league.
This stems from their high volume of 1-HI safety schemes, which they run at the 5th highest rate. Here is Daniels vs the other Top 10 in 1-HI Freq%:
- 7 Rush, 69 Yds vs DAL
2025
- 11 Rush, 68 Yds vs NYG
- 10 Rush, 52 Yds vs CHI
Conflicting.
7) Jayden Daniels has had his struggles against 1-HI, producing 5.02 Yds/DB, which ranks 34th of 42 QBs with >20 DBs.
We already noted the Front 7 injuries for SF, so would expect their current Top 5 Pressure Rate to regress a bit. Daniels has sat at a B5 1.63 Yds/DB against Pressure, so a clean pocket is really key to any hope at a WSH win tonight.
8) Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, yet didn't participate in Thursday's practice while being limited in Friday's. Granted, WSH limited a ton of their offensive contributors, so may be less important than typical.
He leads the team in TPRR against both 1-HI (0.25) and Cover 1 (0.24).
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
After The Broncos home-upset Seattle on TNF, non-Sunday primetime dogs are now 7-2 since Week 1.
No team is giving up more FGA/gp in their L3 games than San Francisco, at a whopping 3.7. This was most recently capped off by Jason Myers, who went 5/5 with all being 40+ Yards. It has now been 4 straight weeks where an opposing kicker has 3+ FGA.
The Commanders have given up 14 Pass TDs (3rd most) despite just 5 GP, with 12 of them occurring in the RedZone and 7 to Tight Ends (Kittle 📈).
Recap | 10.17.26:
+2.1u
✅ - Thornton u13.5 PRA | DK -129 🪶
✅ - Kiah Stokes o2.5 PTS | FD -130
✅ - Stokes 5+ Pts | +225
✅ - Reese u0.5 3s | FD -144
Game 1 Down!
Recap | Game 1 10.17.26:
+2.1u
✅ - Kiah Stokes o2.5 PTS | -130
✅🪜 - Stokes 5+ Pts | +225
✅ - Thornton u13.5 PRA | -129 🪶
✅ - Reese u0.5 3s | -144
Great start to the series 🤟
FREEBIEEEEE ✅
Thornton u13.5 PRA ✅💰
Kayla Thornton u13.5 PRA | CZR -129
9.17.26 Play #1 | #Ballhalla
The 4th seeded Atlanta Dream take on the 2nd seed Golden State Valkyries in the 2026 WNBA Finals, where both won their semi-final series' 3-0. Thus, each team has received a full week of resting before the Best of 7 Series... prepared for battle. Allisha Gray is set to suit up here after fully practicing Friday, Bonner's minutes will fall in tandem.
In their regular season meetings, The Valkyries beat The Dream in all three games. Granted, all of these games occured within a 2 week period; Now, the Dream have won 11 straight games. The two key matchups that Dream have to tackle is Stokes on Reese and Williams on Howard. Based of Smesko's semifinals' rotations, Howard is in for the full 40' of action, which likely gives her 5-7' with no Williams on the court.
The Dream bring a ton of size, which showed itself to be problematic or Golden State to slow them down in transition. It could be a series where Janelle Salaun is reintroduced and their smaller options in Hayes/Chen are deeper on bench. Hayes is just 8/31 to her PRA mark with 20 or fewer minutes.
Kayla Thornton held to sub 25' each of the final two games vs Atlanta and she has had her minutes completely tailored by matchup, with 21 MPG vs DAL then 32.3 MPG vs LVA. Would project closer to 25-30' here, and Fiebich just averaged 14 PRA per 38 MPG vs ATL.
Kayla Thornton u13.5 PRA | CZR -129
9.17.26 Play #1 | #Ballhalla
The 4th seeded Atlanta Dream take on the 2nd seed Golden State Valkyries in the 2026 WNBA Finals, where both won their semi-final series' 3-0. Thus, each team has received a full week of resting before the Best of 7 Series... prepared for battle. Allisha Gray is set to suit up here after fully practicing Friday, Bonner's minutes will fall in tandem.
In their regular season meetings, The Valkyries beat The Dream in all three games. Granted, all of these games occured within a 2 week period; Now, the Dream have won 11 straight games. The two key matchups that Dream have to tackle is Stokes on Reese and Williams on Howard. Based of Smesko's semifinals' rotations, Howard is in for the full 40' of action, which likely gives her 5-7' with no Williams on the court.
The Dream bring a ton of size, which showed itself to be problematic or Golden State to slow them down in transition. It could be a series where Janelle Salaun is reintroduced and their smaller options in Hayes/Chen are deeper on bench. Hayes is just 8/31 to her PRA mark with 20 or fewer minutes.
Kayla Thornton held to sub 25' each of the final two games vs Atlanta and she has had her minutes completely tailored by matchup, with 21 MPG vs DAL then 32.3 MPG vs LVA. Would project closer to 25-30' here, and Fiebich just averaged 14 PRA per 38 MPG vs ATL.
Today will be focused on covering the WNBA Finals, Game 1, between Dream & Valkyries.
Will have my first spot coming out shortly along with the analysis. Excited for this series, should be a chess match! ♟️
Would say that even if these types of bets didn’t play a huge factor in your betting volume/performance last season, it’s never good for a market to constrict — from a consumer’s POV.
Also, the final point has enough ambiguity in it to be especially problematic.
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
TNF W6: SEA v DEN. No Rain/Wind, 55°F.
1) Both teams sitting 3-2 here, yet The Seahawks have yet to lose a game by more than a score. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was questionable with an ankle sprain, yet fully practiced on Wednesday so little concern.
Guarding JSN is already tough, yet the Broncos will be forced to do so without one of the best CBs in the league in Pat Surtain II... while the other starting CB in Riley Moss is questionable and starting SS Hufanga is OUT.
JSN had one career game vs Surtain II, where he had just 2 Rec for 19 Yds.
2) Denver's pass coverage sits 7th in highest percentage of drop backs in Man, while allowing the 4th most Yds/DB amongst those Top 10 in rate.
We likely see a bit less given the injuries to their corners, but here are the Seattle catchers vs Man:
- JSN 0.29 TPRR (-.08), 26.7% Air Yards (-35.9%) 📉
- Shaheed 0.22 TPRR (+.04), 30.7% Air Yards
- Kupp 0.18 TPRR (+.08), 36.7% Yds (1st) 📈
3) In general, The Broncos secondary has allowed the 3rd highest aDOT (9.2) yet allow the 2nd fewest targets and 5th fewest yards to wide receivers.
They have instead allowed the highest TPRR to backfield receivers (RBs, 0.32), at the 4th lowest aDOT -- insinuating dumpoffs. Emanuel Wilson has posted a higher route share every week, with 14 routes last week to Holani's 16.
RBs with 10+ Routes vs DEN:
- Johnson 2 TGT, 2 Rec, 44 Yds | K9 6-3-18
- Williams 7-6-70 | Corum 4-2-0
- Mitchell 4-3-18 | Vidal 2-1-0
- Juszczyk 2-2-28 | McCaffrey 5-3-18
All 8 backs had 2+ receptions, with both Holani and Wilson set at o/u 1.5.
4) Ground game can be effective, as Denver has suffered the highest broken tackle rate, 7th highest explosive rate, and 7th highest YPC. Admittedly, a bulk of this was from Walker's insane performance of 173 Rush Yds off 23 carries.
Emanuel Wilson has now logged 20+ rush attempts in 3 of his last 4 games.
5) This Seahawks defense is a problem, ranking 2nd in DVOA and 1st in OPP. Scrimmage Yards -- giving up just 251 per game. You may think Bo Nix projected for just 199.5 passing yards is low, yet no QB has crossed that 200 mark vs SEA this season.
All but Mariota has thrown an interception.
6) Coverage wise, SEA has ran the 3rd highest rate of zone coverage. This is bad news for Jaylen Waddle, who already has produced little with Denver outside of his 138 Yd boom against Jacksonville; Against zone, he is generating just 1.56 YPRR and seeing a 7% dip to his target share.
Troy Franklin Jr. the biggest loser, seeing a 17% drop in his target share... to just 3% vs zone.
7) Distribution wise, Seattle has allowed the most targets to outside route runners. This is their one blemish, as they also surrenders the most yards per route ran as well.
This could be an upswing for Courtland Sutton, who has not only ran 80% of his routes out wide, yet also has generated +0.83 YPRR vs Zone.
8) RJ Harvey is losing this battle for carries, with Dobbins producing his highest snap share (54.4%) and rush volume (18) last week.
Opposing offenses have been running against Seattle 3.1% more than expected.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
Seattle is sitting Top 5 in OPP RedZone scoring chances a game, yet have allowed a 75% conversion rate when there. Of their 12 total touchdowns surrendered, just 2 are rushing, and only one at the goal line.
They have given up 8.7 Kicking PPG in their L3 weeks, 10th most.
Primetime dogs are now 6-2 since Week 1, while the O/U is dead even at 5-5 this season.
The NBA Tips off in under a week now, bringing the team back to full strength.
Over the next few days, alongside NFL Primetime & WNBA playoff bets, the tracking website will go live.
Meanwhile, here is a 50% OFF promo code to hop in for NBA season:
dubclub.win/r/p/pri-2u467/?c…
caleb.bets 🍀 retweeted
10 THINGS TO EXPECT in THE NFL TONIGHT:
MNF: Bills v Rams. 9% Rain, 68°F.
1) The Bills had their flawless start to the season snuffed in Week 4 against The Patriots, and in that loss came another one to DT Ed Oliver -- who remains out with a knee injury tonight.
If there was any takeaway on the Bills' defense last season, it would have been their rush defense; They allowed the most Rush TDs (24) and 3rd most YPC (5.1) in 2025. Oliver played just 3 games last season as well... this will be a big hit.
2) The Rams rush offense has been commonly known as a committee of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, yet in the last two weeks (vs DEN, PHI) Williams has notched >71% snaps, a mark he didn't clear for the final 11 games of his 2025 campaign.
Corum saw just 15% of snaps in Week 4, his lowest of the season.
3) Puka Nacua returned last week to 90% of snaps, racking up 127 scrimmage yards off 12 targets. This Bills coverage unit is sitting Top 10 in zone coverage rate, with 2-HI safety looks of Cover 2/4, and 1-HI of Cover 3.
Nacua's YPRR vs zone is just 1.8 compared to his 6.75 against man, but it's still so early in his season that this is a moot point.
4) Positionally, Buffalo has given up the 3rd highest TGT/RR to Tight Ends... yet Rams just lost Terrance Ferguson (IR), who also was the team leader in target share against zone. Despite what the depth chart claims, the Rams TE1 is Tyler Higbee.
Tight Ends with >60% RS vs BUF:
- Henry 5/5, 62 Yds
- LaPorta 6/7, 52 Yds
- Schultz 4/8, 35 Yds
5) There were 6 running backs to run for 100+ yards this week, could James Cook III join that list. This season, nearly a quarter of James' carries have been explosive runs -- leading the league.
The Rams, who still miss Myles Garrett, have ranked B10 in STUFF% and Yards B4 Contact.
While Rams have allowed a Top 5 backfield target rate, they have boasted the same ranking in the average depth of those targets (aDOT); A lot of dumpoffs, not a lot of meaningful production.
6) The Bills have already ruled out Joshua Palmer, yet also have their top offseason acquisition in DJ Moore questionable. Any reaggravation to Moore's shoulder would be deeply problematic, would prefer (as a fan) for Bills to err on the side of caution.
This already was a tough matchup in the air, with Rams defense allowing the fewest receptions to wideouts.
Keon Coleman has shown his upside, already being halfway to his 2025 yards total, but this spot doesn't seem to provide a ton of upside.
7) As you could infer, they instead have allowed the highest TGT/RR rate to slot receivers. Khalil Shakir is coming off his highest snap rate (76%) and receiving production (7/8, 82 Yds), while now getting another strong matchup.
8) Granted, opposing QBs have generated little production in the air overall (recent to past):
- Hurts 12/27, 93 Yds
- Nix 17/34, 186 Yds
- Winston 11/27, 111 Yds
- Purdy 25/34, 205 Yds
All 4 of these QBs went under their personal pass lines, along with Josh Allen's current 245.5 line. Rams sit 2nd vs Deep Ball Rate.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, ETC.
Unsure why you would have Tyler Bass nor Harrison Mevis in your fantasy league, yet each of them also facing a Top 10 defense against Field Goal Att.
These are for differing reasons, as BUF RedZone defense has struggled (69% OPP Score Rate, 23rd), while LAR defense has forced the 4th most Punts.
The Rams have given up just a single RedZone rush touchdown (Allen 📉) while Bills have given up 9 RedZone Pass TDs (Adams 📈).
On Thursday/Monday primetime games, the dogs are 5-0 ATS in the L3 weeks. The O/U is 4-5, in favor of unders.
I could see a path towards the under here (54.5) if both teams generate success on ground, leading to a ton of clock burn.
Gearing up for NBA season & Sammy is going to be right beside me in Notify.
One week… 🍀🤟
NBA season is 1 week away which means my weekly and monthly packages are available
First 20 people to sign up using promo code "NBA27" get half off their 1st month
Previous Results all tracked:
23-24: +55.53u (12.8% ROI)
24-25: +50.4u (8.8% ROI)
25-26: +78.03u (13% ROI)
winible.com/sammygprops
10 THINGS TO EXPECT in THE NFL TONIGHT:
MNF: Bills v Rams. 9% Rain, 68°F.
1) The Bills had their flawless start to the season snuffed in Week 4 against The Patriots, and in that loss came another one to DT Ed Oliver -- who remains out with a knee injury tonight.
If there was any takeaway on the Bills' defense last season, it would have been their rush defense; They allowed the most Rush TDs (24) and 3rd most YPC (5.1) in 2025. Oliver played just 3 games last season as well... this will be a big hit.
2) The Rams rush offense has been commonly known as a committee of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, yet in the last two weeks (vs DEN, PHI) Williams has notched >71% snaps, a mark he didn't clear for the final 11 games of his 2025 campaign.
Corum saw just 15% of snaps in Week 4, his lowest of the season.
3) Puka Nacua returned last week to 90% of snaps, racking up 127 scrimmage yards off 12 targets. This Bills coverage unit is sitting Top 10 in zone coverage rate, with 2-HI safety looks of Cover 2/4, and 1-HI of Cover 3.
Nacua's YPRR vs zone is just 1.8 compared to his 6.75 against man, but it's still so early in his season that this is a moot point.
4) Positionally, Buffalo has given up the 3rd highest TGT/RR to Tight Ends... yet Rams just lost Terrance Ferguson (IR), who also was the team leader in target share against zone. Despite what the depth chart claims, the Rams TE1 is Tyler Higbee.
Tight Ends with >60% RS vs BUF:
- Henry 5/5, 62 Yds
- LaPorta 6/7, 52 Yds
- Schultz 4/8, 35 Yds
5) There were 6 running backs to run for 100+ yards this week, could James Cook III join that list. This season, nearly a quarter of James' carries have been explosive runs -- leading the league.
The Rams, who still miss Myles Garrett, have ranked B10 in STUFF% and Yards B4 Contact.
While Rams have allowed a Top 5 backfield target rate, they have boasted the same ranking in the average depth of those targets (aDOT); A lot of dumpoffs, not a lot of meaningful production.
6) The Bills have already ruled out Joshua Palmer, yet also have their top offseason acquisition in DJ Moore questionable. Any reaggravation to Moore's shoulder would be deeply problematic, would prefer (as a fan) for Bills to err on the side of caution.
This already was a tough matchup in the air, with Rams defense allowing the fewest receptions to wideouts.
Keon Coleman has shown his upside, already being halfway to his 2025 yards total, but this spot doesn't seem to provide a ton of upside.
7) As you could infer, they instead have allowed the highest TGT/RR rate to slot receivers. Khalil Shakir is coming off his highest snap rate (76%) and receiving production (7/8, 82 Yds), while now getting another strong matchup.
8) Granted, opposing QBs have generated little production in the air overall (recent to past):
- Hurts 12/27, 93 Yds
- Nix 17/34, 186 Yds
- Winston 11/27, 111 Yds
- Purdy 25/34, 205 Yds
All 4 of these QBs went under their personal pass lines, along with Josh Allen's current 245.5 line. Rams sit 2nd vs Deep Ball Rate.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, ETC.
Unsure why you would have Tyler Bass nor Harrison Mevis in your fantasy league, yet each of them also facing a Top 10 defense against Field Goal Att.
These are for differing reasons, as BUF RedZone defense has struggled (69% OPP Score Rate, 23rd), while LAR defense has forced the 4th most Punts.
The Rams have given up just a single RedZone rush touchdown (Allen 📉) while Bills have given up 9 RedZone Pass TDs (Adams 📈).
On Thursday/Monday primetime games, the dogs are 5-0 ATS in the L3 weeks. The O/U is 4-5, in favor of unders.
I could see a path towards the under here (54.5) if both teams generate success on ground, leading to a ton of clock burn.
✅ - Canada u5.5 3PA
✅ - Gabby u8 RA
✅ - Talbot u10.5 PRA
🅿️ - Naz o4 Reb
❌ - Stokes u6 DREB
Stokes sells in OT. We now have a week off before the finals, so will throw in some NFL in the mix. Enjoy!
You guys let me forget FREE FRIDAY?
GAME 3's Flex 5 | 10x, 0.5u
10.9.26 Plays #3-7 | #FlexFriday
Full article in thread, enjoy your Friday 🍀
