CNBC power poll: “people use muse and get really excited with the first 2 or 3 things they do with it and then don’t know what else to do with it and trail off.” Gotta say that’s been my experience so far too

This is the second WSJ article of this nature I’ve read in the last week or so. A sort of presumptive nostalgia for the way work was prior to AI / is prior to AGI. The prior was a maudlin defense of middle managers. Fascinating.

Disclosing a large short position in $META. Thesis: Muse is offered free of charge with no meaningful cap on inference consumption. Meta is absorbing the full cost of compute, memory, and power on every query in pursuit of user growth. We believe this subsidy is unsustainable under adversarial usage. Position: We have deployed 10,000 endpoints running maximally compute-intensive workloads on a continuous basis. Deployment is scaling at 10,000 units per day. Unit economics: Our marginal cost per endpoint is approximately $300, incurred once. Meta's cost per endpoint is recurring and uncapped. We view this as a highly asymmetric trade. Channel checks: Retail sources confirm unusual laptop demand in the region. We are the source of that demand. Risks: Rate limiting, supply constraints at our primary vendor, and rising operating expenses on our side. Outlook: We expect material margin compression, a miss on next quarter's earnings, and elevated data center thermal risk. This is called activist investing.

Rollins $ROL is amazing because for 10 years it trades 40-50x p/e and you admire it as a great business and then it drops like a stone to 25x and you wonder why would I pay 25x for a pest control business

Waste Management is now trading at its cheapest Price to Cash Flow valuation in over 5 years. Is $WM interesting at this level?

BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises to 5.44%, its highest level since June 2004. We are nearing a +500 basis point gain from the 2020 low. Where is the US Treasury?

Why have the big VC backed IPOs failed so miserably versus the QQQs post listing? Of the >$50b IPOs, aggregate IRR since Day 1 is a -4% annual return, measured against the QQQs with an 18% return.

One of our staff members walked into my office earlier. He has a very good friend who is a quantitative analyst at Blackrock. Told him off record that Blackrock is having them stress test everything with a 10 year treasury at 9% for an extended period of time. Said "worried" is an understatement.