@WaterportCap
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private equity investor running a long/short PA on the side, hunting the best businesses in the world
Joined February 2025
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Racks in space $SPCX
Ltm price action of -27% at $SYK while eps estimates have barely budged. Now trading at ~13.5x ntm3 p/e...
Seems too easy. Why won't this rerate back to 20-25x?
Hypothetical $SYK eps upside to 2029 if revenue growth returns to 10% rather than consensus decel and margins outperform. Don't have a strong view on this but not exactly heroic assumptions and you have a 12x p/e handle on 2029 eps
The accounting software announcements of Mercury and Ramp are just the beginning of what will be an avalanche of new application SaaS developed at orders of magnitude greater speed and lower cost with better/modern infra than incumbents. If you are long get off the tracks $INTU
Clearing $150 makes me think $SPCX is going back to $200. No analysis supporting this, just vibes. See you guys on Mars. 🚀🚀
$NVDA p/e chart one month later...woof. Stock up ~10% and fy2 eps estimates up ~20% but p/e still compressing.
Feels like this will see 15x. But maybe ntm eps estimates have a 25%+ revision coming as we turn the calendar into FY28 and stock still works.
Pulled up $NVDA p/e chart and saw these lines I drew back in April. Yikes. Are we going under 15x p/e?
NVDA retracing the earnings move 💀
Blew out of my position in the 220s and will look to put it back on ~210 if we get there. Too big of a position to just watch this gap fill.
Let my app software exposure go too early in hindsight but fortunately did put NOW back on in size after hours following the CRM print. I figured keep the higher growth name that may also catch the cyber security/infra bid, and sleep better not owning CRM and INTU
It’s too early to victory lap software and dunk on vibe coding / terminal value concerns. Those concerns are well founded and haven’t had time to play out yet. Barriers to entry have decreased by multiple orders of magnitude and the asset class will never be the same imo
Watch Benioff flinch and take a sip after "destroying anyone" lol. Dario may need some more comms training...
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says he has no interest in destroying the SaaS companies his models are supposedly wiping out
"We're not interested in destroying anyone."
"We think of this as a very positive sum thing, right?"
"That's the way markets work. We're creating new value here."
"And the question is just, it's not about destroying anyone, it's about how much of these enormous gains go to various people and various companies."
"And our philosophy always has been that we want to work with our customers, we want to empower our customers to share these gains with us."
>$20 eps next year. Sure this *could* be peak cycle earnings, but how many of the accounts on here confidently taking that view were predicting this kind of FY28 growth 24 hours ago? Time to update your views folks…
$NVDA
Guggenheim did an excellent buy-side flash survey on $NVDA bogeys after the print.
Certainly a big gap on "buyside" GAAP vs results.
Gives you a better idea where buyside is.
Post close ($219.50 +5%), NVDA is trading @ 13x/< 11x updated buyside estimates.
