Aliquando vincimus, aliquando amittimus. fascinated by prediction markets

Writer.
Joined June 2025
But I swear to God, I'm actually very locked in this time around and I will do everything and I mean everything in my power to achieve all of my goals! Impossible still has the word possible in it
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
what in the world is happening in France recently? can't believe they are getting this bad now you are hooked, let's explain what happens if this particular market is disputed on resolution day :) let's say Jim traded yes on this quoted market and it turned out to be no, he is angry because he is a frenchman and he knows who entered from the news ⤷ so he then carries his bond, to match whatever the proposer put in his bond and disputes it. ⤷ now, after the first and second dispute they don't reach a resolution so what happens? In @Polymarket they use a Uma voting system (I will explain what it is) so now, the voters look at the options brought by the disputer and the proposer, then the voters now cast their votes with their staked UMA tokens why staked? to prevent buying and dumping of tokens before and after voting :) now comes the interesting part, the initial votes are hidden for 24hours , with the final results revealed later (the next 24 hours) to keep people in check, if you fall in the minority, let's say the correct answer is yes and you say no and a lot of voters pick yes you lose your an amount of your staked tokens :) if you got your vote right, you keep the tokens plus a reward untop of them, that's why voters have to be meticulous else they will be punished and that's how UMA voting on @Polymarket works, next I will do for @Kalshi and how they don't need any "voting" see ya :)
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
Me and the boyz speedrunning our way to Kardashev II. @beffjezos gets it. Push civilizational acceleration forward with @projectspherexy PS//9LN8JL
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
have you ever wondered how bizarre markets like this ever resolved? and what could happen if Jesus actually comes back one day, let's take a little dip into resolution of prediction markets :) we have 5 people involved ⤷ creator ⤷ trader ⤷ asserter/proposer ⤷ disputer ⤷ voters but we will be focusing on the asserter and proposer for now the proposer is the one who submits the final outcome to the oracle once the market ends. they put up a bond (let's say 1000usdc), and if they're wrong they lose it. the disputer is anyone who thinks that answer is wrong. They put up their own bond to challenge it. if the asserter is wrong, they lose their bond, same goes with the disputer :) now the first dispute triggers a new proposal round and if not resolved it goes to the UMA voting system. ⤺ the voters are UMA token holders. If the answer is disputed twice, they stake their tokens and vote on what the correct outcome is. will explain how fairly this "voting" works tomorrow 👀 so when a market like this closes, someone proposes the result, and if it's "No" and nobody can argue otherwise, it settles quickly. @Polymarket normally has a 2 hour challenge window also another quick note, the market's written rules decide everything, which is why traders read the resolution criteria before they buy money keeps everyone honest. That's how prediction markets settle even the strangest questions.
someone bet $20,000 to win $500,000 that Jesus Christ will return in 2026 He is already up $3600 in just a few hours 5% chances it happens
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what in the world is happening in France recently? can't believe they are getting this bad now you are hooked, let's explain what happens if this particular market is disputed on resolution day :) let's say Jim traded yes on this quoted market and it turned out to be no, he is angry because he is a frenchman and he knows who entered from the news ⤷ so he then carries his bond, to match whatever the proposer put in his bond and disputes it. ⤷ now, after the first and second dispute they don't reach a resolution so what happens? In @Polymarket they use a Uma voting system (I will explain what it is) so now, the voters look at the options brought by the disputer and the proposer, then the voters now cast their votes with their staked UMA tokens why staked? to prevent buying and dumping of tokens before and after voting :) now comes the interesting part, the initial votes are hidden for 24hours , with the final results revealed later (the next 24 hours) to keep people in check, if you fall in the minority, let's say the correct answer is yes and you say no and a lot of voters pick yes you lose your an amount of your staked tokens :) if you got your vote right, you keep the tokens plus a reward untop of them, that's why voters have to be meticulous else they will be punished and that's how UMA voting on @Polymarket works, next I will do for @Kalshi and how they don't need any "voting" see ya :)
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
can you even survive this situation 😭😂?? #hellraiserrevival #seesuchsights
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have you ever wondered how bizarre markets like this ever resolved? and what could happen if Jesus actually comes back one day, let's take a little dip into resolution of prediction markets :) we have 5 people involved ⤷ creator ⤷ trader ⤷ asserter/proposer ⤷ disputer ⤷ voters but we will be focusing on the asserter and proposer for now the proposer is the one who submits the final outcome to the oracle once the market ends. they put up a bond (let's say 1000usdc), and if they're wrong they lose it. the disputer is anyone who thinks that answer is wrong. They put up their own bond to challenge it. if the asserter is wrong, they lose their bond, same goes with the disputer :) now the first dispute triggers a new proposal round and if not resolved it goes to the UMA voting system. ⤺ the voters are UMA token holders. If the answer is disputed twice, they stake their tokens and vote on what the correct outcome is. will explain how fairly this "voting" works tomorrow 👀 so when a market like this closes, someone proposes the result, and if it's "No" and nobody can argue otherwise, it settles quickly. @Polymarket normally has a 2 hour challenge window also another quick note, the market's written rules decide everything, which is why traders read the resolution criteria before they buy money keeps everyone honest. That's how prediction markets settle even the strangest questions.
someone bet $20,000 to win $500,000 that Jesus Christ will return in 2026 He is already up $3600 in just a few hours 5% chances it happens
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
Incase you didn't understand what this meant, it's simple Team A are playing beside your street and as a result your restaurant is packed with many fans so what do you do you take out money and bet a no that team but now if they keep winning, fans come making your bar packed more and more what if they lose and they don't advance keeping the fans from coming there, then your payout on no enters Either way you don't lose much, if they lose and customers stop coming, you win your payout on polymarket :)
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on. So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came. A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.” Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
Good morning 𝕏 Happy Tacos Tuesday 🌮
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
Ever been left on read? 👀 $LOR is turning that feeling into a whole community. The $LOR community has been putting in work! The art and design contest is officially wrapped up, and the winners have been announced. Huge respect to everyone who participated and brought their creativity to the table. But this is more than just a meme coin. It’s about building a community, staying active, and creating something together. The team is still pushing, hosting Spaces, running contests, and finding new ways to keep the community involved. If you haven't checked out Left On Read ($LOR) yet, now's a good time to do your own research and see what the community is building. Delivered. Read. Silence. 👀 CA: B6uff1uNSuLj6DnYoVrjcbZEYfBdxa24CLvM4t3Rpump Follow: @LeftOnRead82 #Solana #Memecoins #LOR
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Incase you didn't understand what this meant, it's simple Team A are playing beside your street and as a result your restaurant is packed with many fans so what do you do you take out money and bet a no that team but now if they keep winning, fans come making your bar packed more and more what if they lose and they don't advance keeping the fans from coming there, then your payout on no enters Either way you don't lose much, if they lose and customers stop coming, you win your payout on polymarket :)
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on. So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series. The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came. A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.” Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
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Prediction markets are the future to be very honest, will be niching down on them this coming weeks y'all might learn a few from me concerning it :)
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
I and @0x_TIMii just finished cooking up something sweet😋 $ZEC @zooko @zksnarks_ await our cook 🫵🏽 Adding final touches to the product, more info soon!
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
I can't be the only one experiencing the rent spike in the country? Cause tf you mean a selfcon is going for 1M??!!!
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If I was that girl I’d get up and find my clothes asap💀😂 #hellraiserrevival #seesuchsights
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
ohh the day no bad tho… higher way!
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Real recognizes real more people are getting onboard already
We’re happy to share that we’ve been overwhelmed by the number of applications coming in lately! We see every one and review each project carefully. Our goal stays the same: keep fresh campaigns coming to the Rarelist community without lowering the quality bar.
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Real recognizes real more people are getting onboard already
We’re happy to share that we’ve been overwhelmed by the number of applications coming in lately! We see every one and review each project carefully. Our goal stays the same: keep fresh campaigns coming to the Rarelist community without lowering the quality bar.
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I will be participating in the next campaign
Quick update: the @streamoors campaign is coming to a close! The Streamoors team has granted active contributors personal invite links to their early community chat. Check if you got one: rarelist.io/projects/streamo…
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Bruce 🩺 retweeted
⇴the best form of us are still ahead. ⇴the best form of us is yet to be seen. ⇴the best form of us is still being built. ⇴the best form of us hasn't met the world yet. ⇴the best form of us is somewhere between who we are and who we're becoming. so! try to give an answer to this: why are we so hard on ourselves when we still have so much growing left to do?
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