Matt Hollerbach retweeted

arka šš½š@arka0xFeb 21
South Asia!
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this blew my mind.
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Hereās a hard truth about modern society.
We donāt practice Capitalism anymore.
Rather, for the last 40 years weāve been conducting a horrific experiment called āneoliberalismā. And weāre near the terminal point in that experiment, a stage Iāve been calling metastatic market fundamentalism.
Capitalism is agents organizing to seek profit by serving the needs and wants of customers. Metastatic market fundamentalism treats citizens as feedstock for corporate profits.
Social media is a canonical example. Itās established fact that Twitter, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram etc. algorithms, which are tuned to maximize advertising revenues via limbic activation, and produce political division and derangement, depression, and a host of other problems. But regulating against these algorithms might impair corporate profits, so America doesnāt regulate them. Because the system isnāt designed to protect the rights of Americans to not be exploited by corporations for profit. The system is to designed to protect corporationsā rights to extract maximum profit from citizens.
This is pathological sociopathy at societal scale.
I adore Capitalism. Itās a truly miraculous tool, but shouldn't be used to solve all problems.
Take science: it is unequivocally the optimal way to seek empirical truth and model reality. But science can't address which questions are worth asking, or what priorities are most important to citizens under resource constraints.
Similarly with Capitalism. It is an unparalleled engine for allocating resources and commercializing innovation, but it is a terrible arbiter of human values. When we ask the market to decide what constitutes a good life or a just society, it defaults to the only answer it knows: whatever is most profitable. That is the metastatic cancer.
A functional society knows when to invoke science, or capitalism, or democracy, or the judicial process, or the deliberative bodies that define its public good. The central challenge of governance is to protect the sovereignty of each institutional sphere, ensuring that the logic of the marketplace does not set the curriculum for our schools, write the laws for our courts, or determine the mission of our hospitals.
So hereās where we are: We built the most powerful resource allocation machine in history, then let it allocate us. We became the resource. The product. The feedstock. If you think Iām being dramatic, ask yourself - when did we last make a major policy decision that hurt corporate profits but helped actual humans? That silence you hear? Thatās the cancer winning.
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
If youāre spread across infinite universes, by all means, go full expected value. But if youāre stuck living **just** one life like the rest of us, maybe aim to not end up broke 90% of the time. Median matters, multiverse or not.
I might disagree with its fatalistic conclusion on capitalism and techno-optimism, but this writing is simply brilliant.
āFounders are expected to adopt a linear wealth mindset and take big risks that maximize expected value as cogs in the venture capital machine dependent on power law home runs. The tales of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg risking everything they had and emerging with the largest personal fortunes on planet Earth reinforce the mythos that drives the entire risk taking sector, while survivorship bias conveniently forgets the millions of founders who go to zero.ā
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Stephen A Smith stuns the Bill Maher crowd into silence as he articulates how Democrats have no one left fighting for the American people:
SAS: "The man was impeached twice, he was convicted on 34 felony counts. The American people still said 'He's closer to normal than what we're seeing on the left.'
He's saying 'I kept my promise'
Then you turn around and look at the left and you say 'What promises did you keep?'
What voter can look at the Democrat party and say 'There's a voice for us, somebody who speaks for us, that goes up on Capitol Hill and fights the fights that we want them fighting on our behalf. They didn't do that. That's why their behinds are home, and that man is back in the White House.
He's doing what he said he was going to do."
The American people said 'We'll take the supposed 'felon' over the woman who is telling us men can get pregnant'
Matt Hollerbach retweeted

Nick Maggiulli@dollarsanddata14 Aug 2024
United States
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The bull market continues and my book is officially the cheapest it's ever been.
Get it here: amzn.to/3WMoUW7
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Do you understand Volatility Tax?
Winning, optimizing, compounding: These are 3 main focuses for traders trying to optimize their way into super-performance but there is so much more going on under the hood.
I invite you to study these 3 fantastic pieces of content on the topic, optimizing your strategy effectively hinges on your understanding of this hidden tax, this is EXTREMELY important:
1) dunham.com/FA/Blog/Posts/theā¦
"But this tax ā I believe ā is the most insidious of them all for investment returns.
Because the volatility tax is the hidden tax that occurs from steep portfolio losses that crush long-term compounded returns."
2) @breakingthemark's incredible blog: breakingthemarket.com/the-moā¦
"If you lose 50% of your wealth, it takes a doubling of your wealth to get back to whole.
50% X 200% = 100%
Once again this feels odd.Ā If feels like this trade off should work to your advantage, but it doesnāt."
3) @TheTradeBuster's 2-part short-form podcast episodes:
"If you have a chance of ruin, you have no alpha."
open.spotify.com/episode/3Eeā¦
open.spotify.com/episode/7rqā¦
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Moontower #227
(link to sub*tack in bio)
The Worst Is Always In The Future
refs:
@paulg
@FoundersPodcast
@breakingthemark
@investingidiocy
@__paleologo
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
thereās an equity risk premium because if there wasnāt everyone would take a riskless rate which would then lower demand for equities, once again creating an equity risk premium
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
My only addition to @breakingthemark's superb list is aiming for a barbell strategy (equity funds + VC for me)
Understand this 14-point decalogue and you'll be in the top 5% of investors
Matt Hollerbach retweeted

Nick Maggiulli@dollarsanddata10 Oct 2023
United States
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
"Lewis believes that SBF just got a little unlucky. But, in reality, SBF was always going to crash and burn, it was just a matter of time."
New Post: Where Michael Lewis Went Wrong
ofdollarsanddata.com/where-mā¦
Matt Hollerbach retweeted

Nick Maggiulli@dollarsanddata7 Sep 2023
United States
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Just Keep Buying has now sold over 100,000 copies worldwide.
This was only possible because readers like you shared the word. So, from the bottom of my heart, thank you for reading.
amzn.to/3YdauxQ
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
"Conventional diversification analysis focuses on annualized standard deviation [ā¦], but long-term investors eventually care about compound terminal wealth. When we focus on terminal wealth, we find that many conventional wisdoms concerning diversification no longer hold."
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Long-term investors measure growth rate, but eat compound wealth.
We introduce the four determinants of portfolioās terminal wealth difference to benchmark & probability of losing to benchmark.
Compounding materializes the importance of diversification.
outcastbeta.com/compounding-ā¦
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
If I got @breakingthemark's post right, portfolio rebalancing (dark green line below the red arithmetic average) lessens the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality "gap" (aka volatility drag), thus making the geometric avg more ergodic.
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
1/
š§µHow much skill (alpha) a concentrated stock picker needs to beat a fully diversified benchmark index?
Variance lowers expected geometric return. To compensate for the idiosyncratic variance drag, stock picker needs skill to catch up with and to exceed the index return.
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Risk, Intuition, and Common Sense: Expected Value and Value Expected harrycrane.substack.com/p/exā¦
Matt Hollerbach retweeted
Retweeting this again, as chasing the Fed pivot as a bullish opportunity always seemed a low probability strategy to me, as historically when pivots have come markets are in very precarious positions ie its been a terrible market timing signal to "buy stonks"

























