Institutional grade insights and real time signals for funds, family offices and market professionals by @glassnode and @willywoo
Zug, Switzerland
Joined May 2025
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Bitcoin’s downside volatility has returned as price grinds below the highs.
Yet BTC is absorbing selling pressure without structural damage, so far.
The breakout has cooled. A sustained Risk Index rise would be the clearest signal that the structure is beginning to wobble.
$BTC holders repeatedly entered the stress zone that defined prior bear-market bottoms, allowing supply to change hands as weaker hands capitulated.
The breakout sharply reduced holder losses. A sustainable bottom now requires most supply to remain outside the Stress Zone.
The $80K–$82.5K pivot is behaving as expected.
Like April–May, BTC is challenging breakeven selling as price retests ETF cost bases.
Acceptance above would confirm demand can absorb this supply, strengthening the case for a regime shift, not another bear market rally.
Bitcoin’s vertical Expansion has reached Top.
This does not confirm the rally is over. It signals that the advance has matured and the consolidation is entering a more decisive phase.
The framework remains firmly Risk On, with Risk at zero and Momentum at maximum strength.
Holding $75K–$77.5K keeps the reset constructive and preserves the path toward $82.5K–$83K.
A bearish warning would require Market Trend to rotate into negative territory, especially alongside rising Risk, weakening Flow and acceptance below $75K–$75.5K.
Why is $80K–$82.5K the key pivot?
It concentrates Grayscale, BlackRock and aggregate ETF cost bases, making it a source of selling pressure, as seen in April–May.
Acceptance above it would confirm that demand can absorb this supply and sustain the expansion.
How sustainable can Bitcoin’s expansion be?
bitcoin:native did not progress gradually through Recovery. It exploded through it.
After remaining anchored in an environment leaning toward Breakdown, Bitcoin moved rapidly, without pause, into Expansion.
But the breakout only proved strength. The consolidation will prove sustainability.
Bitcoin must now hold the reclaimed structure, keep Risk anchored near zero, and absorb profit-taking without falling back into a Bearish Transition.
The Market Trend indicator identifies when a structural change takes place.
If the Cycle Bottom is in, BTC has broken a historic pattern: bottoming without losing or even testing Realized Price.
In 2018–2019, price spent months below it, and the reclaim marked bottom formation.
This time, holder cost basis held throughout. Is this time different?
The Risk Index lower high repeated April’s sequence.
BTC broke out before Risk fully stabilized, as bear capitulation and forced buying propelled price higher.
With Risk now at zero, the next phase should be steadier, less explosive expansion, as long as Low Risk holds.
BTC’s transition remains obstructed.
Momentum is still inside the Transition Zone, while price remains below the compressed short-term cost bases, a source of selling pressure.
Reclaiming the 30D Cost Basis with positive Momentum is the first step toward a Bullish Transition
During the 2022 bear market, Participation strengthened while BTC consolidated, building an on-chain foundation
FTX collapse interrupted that process, but the foundation survived and supported the 2023 recovery
Cycle bottoms begin internally before they become visible in price
Bitcoin has found the middle ground and is building the foundation.
Network Growth has risen steadily since mid-July alongside Bitcoin’s consolidation.
Participation is rebuilding without either a Breakdown or Breakout forcing it.
Participation Expansion during consolidation strengthens the mid-term outlook, preparing the foundation for a potential cycle bottom.
