Mike Holden (@binaryfootball) header
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Football Decision Architecture — better decisions through pattern recognition, cultural psychology and probability thinking.

Valencia, Spain
Joined April 2014
Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)
Mike Holden retweeted
For those unaware, I write one column per month with some EFL bets for these chaps. It’s usually 2-3 bets per month. This month’s, with season long bets for all three EFL leagues goes live in a couple of hours. There are 34 bets today.
It’s @nickgoff79 on TLS duty this evening for his EFL season preview and just the 34 bets advised… thelongshot1.substack.com/
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This clip is from before the tournament by the way, @GNev2 nailed it.
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Mike Holden retweeted
Here's why England and Argentina should both want Spain to beat France tonight — and it's not for the reason you think... A lot has been made of France as clear tournament favourites. I don't buy it. Yes, they are the most lethal team with the most impressive array of attacking threats — and yes, for that reason they should be marginal favourites — but that doesn't mean they are obviously the best team. The truth is, nobody should be staking their entire mortgage or reputation on any of the four contenders at this point. They're almost impossible to separate. But separate them we will, because that's human nature — we are wired to track what's different about them rather than what's the same. It's a survival instinct. But in doing so, we have a natural tendency to overweight what we see. Because we don't die if we detect a tiger that turns out not to be a tiger. So what I'm observing with France is a combination of the halo effect, anchoring bias and confirmation bias. They have serious depth and quality in attack. They started the tournament well and continue to play well in virtually every game, smashing teams who are clearly weaker than them. But answer this: Do you really know much more about France now than you did before the tournament began? Has anything really changed? Or are you just more confident about them? I'm seeing a lot of tweets about strength of opposition faced up to this point (based on FIFA rankings) but not so much about tournament conditions. France and Spain are a good match for the first semi final because they've both had it easy in the latter regard — France have barely travelled, while Spain's knockout route has been exclusively in climate-controlled venues. For both teams, this will be the first game where they have to take a twin approach and fully account for what the opposition bring rather than focus mostly on themselves. These are not 80-20 games now. It's not even 60-40. We're as close to 50-50 as you're going to get and that changes the dynamics entirely. We haven't seen either team in this context yet. Maybe Spain have more valuable intelligence on France than vice-versa. Let's see. However, there's one good reason why England and Argentina should both want Spain to win and I believe it's connected to the emotional context directly created by what went before. For me, the modern age of the World Cup began in 1974. That's when the presidency of Joao Havelange began and FIFA embraced a new commercial model, with a new trophy to replace the old Jules Rimet trophy kept by Brazil for winning three times. Since then, 13 finals have produced 18 teams returning to the final within 20 years of their previous final — meaning, the last final appearance is a living memory for the players on the pitch, if not always a playing memory. Of those 18 teams, 15 reversed the previous result. Check out the list: Did it reverse? Yes ✅ No ❌ 1974 — 🇩🇪 West Germany ✅ 1978 — 🇳🇱 Netherlands ❌ 1982 — 🇮🇹 Italy ✅ 1982 — 🇩🇪 West Germany ✅ 1986 — 🇦🇷 Argentina ❌ 1986 — 🇩🇪 West Germany ❌ 1990 — 🇩🇪 West Germany ✅ 1990 — 🇦🇷 Argentina ✅ 1994 — 🇮🇹 Italy ✅ 1998 — 🇧🇷 Brazil ✅ 2002 — 🇧🇷 Brazil ✅ 2002 — 🇩🇪 Germany ✅ 2006 — 🇮🇹 Italy ✅ 2006 — 🇫🇷 France ✅ 2014 — 🇩🇪 Germany ✅ 2018 — 🇫🇷 France ✅ 2022 — 🇦🇷 Argentina ✅ 2022 — 🇫🇷 France ✅ Make of these numbers what you will. Personally, I think there's a very strong case to be made for the pressure being asymmetric on the returning finalist — the previous loser has to heal the pain of the last occasion, the previous winner can only match what happened last time, they can never better it. If this pattern is going to hold for a 13th consecutive time, then that means either France winning the final or Spain losing the final. If France beat Argentina, then the pattern will stretch to 17/20 and 14 on the spin. For me, this is the single biggest reason why both England and Argentina should be wanting Spain to win tonight.
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Mike Holden retweeted
🇳🇴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 I don't think England understand what's coming on Saturday. English football is part of Norway's DNA. State TV has shown the English league every Saturday since 1969. Most Norwegians supported an English club before a Norwegian one. No footballing nation outside Britain lives English football the way we do. Beating England means more to us than beating Brazil ever could. And beyond Haaland and Ødegaard, half our squad play their club football in England. Every one of them is desperate for bragging rights in their own dressing room. England aren't facing one superstar. They're facing men with a point to prove and a nation that has waited decades for this. Norway will knock England out of the World Cup on Saturday. #FIFAWorldCup2026
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Once you stop assuming that FIFA as the global guardian of the game would care about optics, transparency or consistency, it makes analysing their decisions a lot easier.
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Mike Holden retweeted
A lot have asked what you do about the altitude if your England...Finally, a soccer question in my area of expertise! Here's what I'd do if I were England. First, the impact at 7k feet is real and significant. You can see it in the soccer data, total distance covered and high speed running drop significantly. 3-9% for the former, 10-15% for later. The higher the altitude, the bigger the effect. The less acclimated, the bigger the effect. At 7k feet VO2max would drop about 10-13%. We saw this in track performances at the 1968 Olympics. And performance drops about 5-6% depending on race distance. Jim Ryun ran lights out in the 1500, but ended up second to Kenya's Keino because he was better at altitude. So what do we do? 1. Acclimate...if you had more time this would be the key. You train at altitude, maybe even use altitude tents, etc. But it takes time... About a 3 week acclimatization cuts the VO2max/performance drop in half as your physiology adapts. One study on track athletes showed it took 19 days to fully acclimate. England doesn't have that time. 2. Arrival time The research points to two different approaches: compete as soon as possible (within ~24 hours) after arrival. Why? You compete before poor sleep and plasma-volume loss sets in. Generally, plasma shifts starts right after arrival but reach the level that impairs endurance capacity by about 24 hours and increase from there before leveling off. Or you arrive 5+ days before and hope to acclimate. While it varies for each individual, generally 1-3 days after arrival, performance sucks as your body is adapting to the drastic change. But...fly in/out is also risky as it involves travel, sleep disturbance, etc. close to the match. So in their situation, it's all about tradeoffs. Altitude is a massive stressor. Everything from blood to respiration is put under stress to adapt. So you've got this dip before adaptation. You can lessen that dip being acclimated. But who knows what England did. Honestly, depending on travel, I would have flown straight from the last game to altitude. Buy yourself as close to 5 days as possible. And if possible maybe even somewhere like 5k feet within driving distance. No idea on planning, but if I didn't acclimate. That's what I'd likely do. I'd avoid the coming in 2 days before. Worst tradeoff. So what do you do now? 1. Hydration and plasma volume. Altitude drives respiratory water loss and diuresis, and plasma volume decreases acutely. Hydration strategies can blunt this. Folks have even tried manipulating high sodium intake to help sh9ift plasma volume 2. Fuel with carbohydrate. We generally will burn more carbs at higher altitude. Make sure you are fueled up. AND use fueling strategies mid-game more like an elite endurance athlete. Something like maurten's gels would work well. 3. Bicarb it up. Altitude is going to harm aerobic abilities. All those sprints and high speed running will build up more fatigue. The new sodicum bicarbonate is a must here. I'd load up if I were England. Plus, altitude tends to lower blood bicarb. Also,, it tends to help more for folks who aren't fully acclimated. 4. Protect sleep. Disrupted sleep is a major part of it. So do everything you can to help get a good nights sleep. Limits screen time, blue light blockers, all the stuff. 5. Tactics and pacing. You've got to adjust. Mexico will be adapted. You won't. Learning how to pace better and time your runs will be key. If you try to do the same thing as always, you will be screwed. 6. Beet Root juice. It can boost endurance performance. Works better on non-elite endurance athletes. Which would honestly be a lot of these soccer guys. And altitude can impair the natural turning of nitrite into nitric oxide, so theoretically beet root juice would help even more at altitude. Though, you'd hoped to test it, or else you could be peeing red stuff that might scare folks, ha. 7. Caffeine. Not altitude specific, but boosts endurance performance. A well timed dose to peak in the 2nd half would be helpful. 8. Heat adaptation. Where England may have benefited from playing in the US is that heat addaptation (and its boost in plasma volume) can help with altitude. So even if they aren't altitude adapted, the heat wave in the US may have helped them. There you go. The science of altitude adaptation for performing. Hopefully, England is prepared! And if not, maybe they see this post and start downing the bicarb, maurten, beet root, and caffeine. Ha -Steve
Mexico vs. England is going to be fantastic. Fans better hope they've prepared for competing at 7k feet altitude. It's a whole different ballgame. And if I'm Mexico, I'm making those guys run...
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Mike Holden retweeted
Another headscratcher from the World Cup organisers tonight... A gap of 3hrs between the first matches ending and the second matches starting. Once again, this is NOT a criticism of time zones, just bizarre how some of these WC matches are being scheduled.
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Now that the regular season is over, I’m going to be putting some energy into X content again over the coming weeks. It starts here, with a Spaces on the EFL Play-offs. xitter.cf/i/spaces/1DXGyqrmEegGM

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You overestimate what you can achieve in a year and underestimate what you can achieve in 5. The best games are the ones you play over decades.
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The most powerful beliefs aren’t facts—they’re repeated lies.
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Personality is genetic. Childhood events shape you, but they don't matter nearly as much as you think.
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The real cost of comfort is hidden until it’s too late.
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Psychology isn't one size fits all. Question every sweeping generalisation in the self-help world. You're not the average. Some of your needs will be counterintuitive.
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Choose your struggle: short-term pain or long-term regret.
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Self-sabotage isn’t fear of success—it’s running away from the darker side of your reality.
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Most of your problems exist because you refuse to step into discomfort.
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Pain isn’t the enemy. Avoiding it is.
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The quality of your therapist depends on the personality of your therapist. The more traits they share with you, the more they can help you solve your problems. The bigger the contrast in their wiring, the less likely it is that their perspectives will land.
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Confidence isn’t a thought process. It’s a learned habit.
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