Mike Holden (@binaryfootball) header
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Football Decision Architecture — better decisions through pattern recognition, cultural psychology and probability thinking.

Valencia, Spain
Joined April 2014
Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)Photo by Mike Holden (@binaryfootball)
For those asking what my problem with Boro is, this is my problem with Boro... Football meant the world to me in those days.
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I went to virtually every one of those games and the 2-0 win in 97 was the day after a Christmas do, when I slept in and didn't get to the ground until HT. Already 2-0 up.
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Can’t think of a better move for Challinor to keep his “At least the play-offs” record going. Remember: it only counts in full seasons!
Sheffield Wednesday Football Club can confirm that an agreement was reached last night for Dave Challinor to become the club's new First-Team Manager. The 51-year-old will be in attendance at today's fixture against Blackpool at Hillsborough. The club looks forward to formally introducing Dave to supporters on Monday, when further details of the appointment will be announced.
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Quote from Kim Hellberg yesterday. Middlesbrough top of the league and favourites for the title because they’ve set the highest standard and been the best team in the Championship so far. But this is an example of why they won’t win the league. Bad framing from Hellberg. Demon emotions when things don’t go his way. Victimhood. Freaks out over anything that goes against his best plans and always someone else’s responsibility to fix what’s making him feel bad. Note: Middlesbrough scored after TWELVE MINUTES yesterday. If this was Hellberg’s experience on the touchline so early in the game, imagine where his head goes if Charlton keep it up for 75. Last season, Boro took 31 points from Hellberg’s first 14 matches. Then the pressure came and they started dropping silly points, failing to win in six straight home games against teams mostly relegation candidates. They were their own worst enemy and it starts with the accumulation of needless anxiety like this.
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Michael Skubala picking pockets again. The guy who cut his teeth in Futsal knows a thing or two about substitutions. He used to make about 100 a game. Late goals at Preston, Burnley and now Bolton worth an extra 8 points to Bristol City.
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"No pictures on a golf scorecard." Meaning the result is all that matters. Chris Wilder's got some of the best phrases.
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Gazza was especially fired up for this game because Lake (newly promoted with City) was being talked up as his big rival in an England team that would never accommodate both players. Funny thing is, Lake outshone him on the day but Gascoigne made a decisive impact on the scoresheet and would hold down his place in the England squad thereafter. The rest is history: Gazza goes to Italia 90, after which Lake plays only five more meaningful matches, doing his cruciate twice and never making his England debut. You could argue Lake never stood a chance of ousting Gascoigne for many reasons — media buzz, playing for an unfashionable northern club (which mattered in those days) and his injury record among them. Either way, this particular game wasn’t about Gazza. It was about Paul Lake, the effortless way in which he dictated the play, and how such a promising career turned out to be a football tragedy. Combine Lake’s mind and habits with Gazza’s body and appetite for the big occasion, you’ve arguably got an all-time great 6, 8 or 10. Or centre back. Between the pair of them, they had absolutely everything.
26/08/1989: Man City 1-1 Tottenham, and Gazza summed up in a nutshell. Skills, frustration, goals, piss-taking, questionable tackling and discipline…
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Cambridge v Millwall tonight. Very much looking forward to a proper Cambridge performance against a proper Millwall team.
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Read this for some worthwhile context on a big game this Wednesday that you probably didn't realise was such a big game. Let me tell you — passing through the void between the two is quite the experience when you're not ready for it. Just enough civilisation to lose an afternoon in your own thoughts, wondering who they all support and what they get up to.
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Monday newsletter on Neil Harris showing his newly-promoted Cambridge players the exit door after an opening day win binaryfootball.substack.com/…
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Can someone tell me who's in charge of Lincoln — Chris Cohen or Tom Shaw? None of that joint-manager nonsense. I need one name. It's meant to be a leadership role, not pat-a-cake.
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The sad decline of unpredictability in the Championship illustrated in one tweet. I wonder when the current parachute payment structure was introduced 🤔
West Ham (7/4) the shortest-priced Championship favourites I have on record this century. Championship favs (2000/01–2025/26): 00/01 – Blackburn (10/3) – 2nd 01/02 – Man City (7/2) – 1st 🏆 02/03 – Wolves (5/1) – 5th, Ipswich (5/1) – 7th 03/04 – West Ham (7/2) – 4th 04/05 – Wolves (7/1) – 9th 05/06 – Norwich (11/2) – 9th 06/07 – Birmingham (5/1) – 2nd 07/08 – Charlton (7/1) – 11th 08/09 – Birmingham (13/2) – 2nd 09/10 – West Brom (13/2) – 2nd 10/11 – Middlesbrough (7/1) – 12th 11/12 – Leicester (5/1) – 9th, West Ham (5/1) – 3rd 12/13 – Bolton (8/1) – 7th 13/14 – QPR (6/1) – 7th 14/15 – Derby (8/1) – 8th 15/16 – Derby (6/1) – 5th 16/17 – Newcastle (15/8) – 1st 🏆 17/18 – Aston Villa (7/1) – 4th 18/19 – Stoke (11/2) – 16th 19/20 – Leeds (13/2) – 1st 🏆 20/21 – Norwich (13/2) – 1st 🏆 21/22 – Fulham (11/2) – 1st 🏆 22/23 – Norwich (11/2) – 13th 23/24 – Leicester (10/3) – 1st 🏆 24/25 – Leeds (7/2) – 1st 🏆 25/26 – Ipswich (11/2) – 2nd
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Mike Holden retweeted
For those unaware, I write one column per month with some EFL bets for these chaps. It’s usually 2-3 bets per month. This month’s, with season long bets for all three EFL leagues goes live in a couple of hours. There are 34 bets today.
It’s @nickgoff79 on TLS duty this evening for his EFL season preview and just the 34 bets advised… thelongshot1.substack.com/
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This clip is from before the tournament by the way, @GNev2 nailed it.
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It’s been a great tournament for memories and I conceded to those who pushed back and said the Mexico game is what a World Cup is all about. But now it’s all done and the nation has gone into meltdown, I believe this has aged well. A known path of purely European opposition (Portugal, Spain, Belgium and France) in climate-controlled stadiums would have been much more preferable to all the wild conditions and opponents we ended up with. We might have risked going out in R32 or R16 but the players had a lot more in the tank back then. If we were serious about actually winning the tournament, this path would have been the easier way to prove it. Tuchel was always going to push everyone to the limit because his threshold for adrenaline, chaos and uncertainty is greater than any other manager out there. And Bellingham was right when he said Tuchel doesn’t understand what it’s like for the players. That tension would have been real behind the scenes long before it surfaced post-Norway. In the end, Tuchel neglected his demons (future pattern-recognition, and respecting the emotions of the tribe) until it was way too late. Then, in one big tidal wave, the whole thing comes crashing down because he suddenly woke up to how much the players were suffering mentally and emotionally. With the Norway fallout still fresh in his mind, and unable to trust them on the technical side, he witnessed their complete inability to manage space or retain possession after the goal, and he made uncharacteristic decisions to ‘help’ them show their spirit. As many people have said, Tuchel went against everything he stood for at the start of the tournament and turned into Gareth Southgate (literally the exact opposite personality type). There’s a lesson for everyone here: do your demons. Don’t go all-in on your saviour functions 24/7 and neglect the shadow sides of your personality. You might get short-term results. You might even feel invincible for a while. But it will always come back to haunt you in the end. No-one is exempt from this, not even one of the best coaches in the world. Carl Jung wasn’t a mug. This stuff is real. “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”
England aren't at the level where a knockout path doesn't matter. Until you win a tournament, the conversation will always be about whether you want to finish first in the group or try to engineer a better path. However, there was surprisingly little talk of it before this tournament — nobody even considered the idea of playing out a draw with Croatia and taking it from there. Once you smash Croatia, you've then got to smash Ghana and Panama. Two draws and finishing on five points? Outrageous. So it's funny to wake up this morning and suddenly it's dawning on everyone that Mexico at the Azteca is just about the toughest R16 clash going. First rule: when you're playing in the Americas, stay away from the Latin Americans. A hiding to nothing. They come to us all the time. We never go to them. We hardly ever leave our own time zone. It's not going to be a fair fight. Portugal and Spain — teams we know, in surroundings they barely know either — followed by an easier QF would have been preferable. Just my opinion. If we're serious, prove it now. Toronto > Arlington > Inglewood > Arlington. Three games in a temperate climate, with at least two-thirds of the crowd on our side, against anyone but the US. Don't fight the opposition AND the conditions. If you have a choice, pick one or the other. Instead, we have the Azteca and then Miami. Altitude, then heat and humidity. This isn't just about beating Mexico. It's about beating Mexico — and the high chance of needing penalties to do so — and then going straight into a QF against Brazil in what 'feels like' 40C. Tuchel doesn't think ahead. He takes everything in his stride and is ready for any chaos. That's a strength of his. But how ready are his players for these kind of challenges on top of his demands? How do the players manage Mexico, altitude, penalties, Brazil and losing half their body weight in the humidity for a manager that will still keep demanding? Things could get tense.
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This is a fair and reasonable pushback. But I’d argue there’s an improvement through each these benchmarks, each one a tiny step forward on the last. Just because the progress is slow and incremental — and the blow up spectacular — doesn’t mean the progress isn’t real. The World Cup is the ultimate survival-of-the-fittest event where it’s almost impossible to get lucky with one big leap at the end, especially when the knockout bracket shaped up like this one did. You have to take out the very best at some point, and usually that’s when there’s so little left to give. It should also be pointed out that this was Game 7 of the tournament. Three of those listed below were Game 6.
Replying to @binaryfootball
"One thing is for sure: you only get closer to taking that next step when you can call upon the experience of actually playing in games like this." Croatia 2018 Italy 2021 France 2022 Spain 2024 How much more experience do you think we need?
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