@audgen
Nigeria
Joined June 2010
This Chief Economist Analyst is just simply loud. California, just a State in the US ranks with Japan as the 4th largest economy in the World by Nominal GDP. His argument " U can't Country with a State " is simply bombastic and fallacious. What is in comparison is economic productive capacity. 2nd, auspicious good oil Revenue was chiefly responsible for our over $500 GDP recorded then. But today we no longer have that oil Revenue fortune. But unlike his very wrong assessment that we are worse off, we seeing today non oil Revenues outperforming oil Revenues signposting that the economic diversification that should have happened much more earlier is now happening under Reforms. In all the Chief Economist Analyst said nothing of value just rummaging over historical facts. Historical data should just be basis for future decisions never the decisions
An economy that cannot be compared with the UAE, India, Japan or Singapore is not a growing economy. We’re living in our worst days. ~Dr Paul Alaje Paul Alaje, is a Chief Economist Analyst and former OAU student Union president (2009/2010). I can never forget that year.
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We need first to address the problems of : a. Stagnant National Income b. Exploding Population c. Arbitary Price Fixing and exploitation by big businesses d . Poor political leadership at States and LG No grassroot Economy and MSMEs can thrive when a. Cement is selling for N 15,000 ( a national embarrassment) b. fuel approaching N 1,500 pl c. accessible facilities is coming at 180%cp.a. to 400% p.a. d. transportation costs remain at all time high and foodstuff, rent, costs following its path. d. Needless demolitions taking away land capital from commoners and making it available at prices only affordable by Capitalists. e. LG and State governance in hands of short sighted people The corrollary of all these is cost of living would remain high and generally unaffordable, life sustenance will have to be on dog eat dog affair. So much of Peter robbing Paul to live from our top ladder rung to the lowest ladder rung. These maladies alone are antithetical to the growth of grassroot Economy and the MSMEs It is a cancer growing with Reforms And it must be removed from Reforms for it to grow and function effectively, effectually.
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1. Closing poverty rate under PMB was 63% with 223 Million people Poverty rate today still at 63% but with population of 245 million . Population had increased by 10% but poverty rate has remained same. Intuitively, over 22 Million people had been taken out of poverty between 2023 and today. 2. MPR is a monetary instrument policy for control of money supply in circulation to stem inflation. A higher rate simply means the govt desire to take more money out of circulation by making Bank Credits less affordable. Nothing to do with Tinubu 3. The exponential increase in debts from 87 trillions to N 159 trillion due to restatement of $ Borrowings in today's higher Naira value per $. a. actual debt increase barely over $ 1 Billion b. If debts hadn't been well managed, it should have been standing at N 254 trillion today 4. Your mentions of Yatch, Lakurawa and Boeing Jet expression of your political mundanity 5. Upward movements in prices of fuel and FCY automatic function of Resources Repricing aspect of Reforms And as a corollary, it has also come with many bounty gains as intended
1. Tinubu met poverty rate at 56% took it to 64% 2. Tinubu met MPR (interest rates) at 18.5% took it to 26.5% 3. Tinubu met public debt at N87t took it to N159t 4. Tinubu met zero presidential yacht, he added one 5. Tinubu met one Boeing , he added an airbus to Presidential fleet 6. Tinubu met ISIS, he added Lakurawa 7. I will not mention fuel price and exchange rate, I don’t want to annoy people “Na Statistics we go chop”
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U are completely wrong Subsidy gives money bags excessive economic rights and powers to subsidized goods over the commoners Trillionaires/Billionaires will dominate the subsidized market to boost their wealth position. Relatively easy to do : buy at N 400 and sell off at over N 2,500. In the long run, subsidy kills the poor and the economy but benefits a miniature few.
Subsidy is the only thing the govt can do that will affect the poor directly. Anyone against it, is against poor Nigerians
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This is merely an expression in quantitative terms Currency devaluation has two dimension 1. Rationing of FCY on basis of premium pricing - U bid for it when it is absolutely necessary. It decrease the propensity to import 2. It reflates the domestic Economy by boosting internal productivity and reordering internal economy mechanisms a.More Naira in hands of govt should have been carefully deployed to stimulate higher domestic productivity for local consumption and exports b.Reforms to ensure Income Redistribution from the Wealthy to support the poor c.Vast lending support for MSMEs d. Price level regulations etc Devaluation should provide us with the drive to look inward to grow the domestic Economy and gain competitive advantage
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Subsidy removal May 2023 took consumption down from 67 million litres to 47 million litres daily with queues. Subsidy price N 197 Today's consumption still 47 million litres daily but without queues. Price N 1,205 And why did U think consumption has remained at 2023 level today,despite sharp hike in price Ostensibly smuggling to neighbouring Countries where prices are much higher than Nigeria's Imagine the effect of your most ignorant proposal to bring back subsidy. Let political discourse runs on rationalisation not on foolhardiness.
Replying to @jrnaib2
Pre subsidy removal consumption May 2023 was 47 million litres daily with queues. Price N 197 Today's consumption still 47 million litres daily but without queues. Price N 1,205 And why did U think consumption has remained at 2023 level today,despite sharp hike in price Ostensibly smuggling to neighbouring Countries where prices are much higher than Nigeria's Imagine the effect of your most ignorant proposal to bring back subsidy. Let political discourse runs on rationalisation not on foolhardiness.
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U don't need to go but to learn. Any Economy is in equilibrium when the following factors are achieved. a. growth in GDP b. steady price level c. full employment d. Favourable Balance of Payment A stabilising Economy means one recovering and on paths to equilibrium which state is really fluid and takes time to even be close to . We already experiencing (a) and (d). As these components grow in magnitude, they should rub off on components (b) and (c) And why movements in (b) and (c) are sluggish is the low level of economic activities at the States and LGs where Reforms are largely absent and ineffectual. Celebratory political governance needs to give way to effective economy governance at States and LGs . Reform packages must also happen at States and LGs A. Resources Reallocation a1. create cheaper alternative use of existing resources a2. liberate more productive land from criminal activities for greater public economic activities a3. move control of ostensibly Public assets/Revenue from private hands to governments etc B. Resources Repricing b1. review upward of lowly priced public goods and services C. Income Support c1. Credit and loan schemes for micro and small scale businesses c2. welfare and cash support for seniors and the Vulnerable etc D. Income Redistribution d1. differential pricing of same public goods and services among different economic class of people E. Financing Support e1. borrowing for critical public infrastructures and upgrading of existing ones
1. Not creating jobs 2. Not producing consumption 3. Prices still rising I can go on
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No gainsaying the fact that Dangote Refinery could not ever have been a conception under Tinubu 2. What Tinubu has done is to run a dying Economy with uncommon economic intelligentsia and restoring it to stability and growth Really praiseworthy and appreciated by every discernible mind. 3. Economic Reforms really a package a. Resources Reallocation b. Resources Repricing c. Income Support Schemes d. Income Redistribution c. Financing Support These levers are being run concurrently in an Economy of 230 million people with severely constrained Resources but with unlimited ENDS. 4. The Administration has done creditably well under those scores within a spate of 3 years. 5. U are entitled to nurture your complexes and political preferences But the true remains,under the onerous economy inherited by Tinubu, his performances have been unassailable. His performances bearing glowing testimonies. And they are being promoted by informed and unbiased commentaries. They can't be said to be hero worshipping
I am not the handle you do this with 1. Under Tinubu, Dangote Refinery was tagged by the regulators as operating without a license and selling inferior products. This is a fact 2. The reforms of OBJ, GEJ, Buhari, and BAT ensured the Dangote refinery was built. Go back and look up which President approved $ for the Dangote refinery when it was just an idea and struggling to source forex. This excessive singular personal praise is anthropolatry, not economics. 3. Naira for crude is not a slam dunk for Nigeria. Dangote should pay for crude in USD. He exports and earns $. Is anyone giving food or medical importers the same incentives? 4. Non-oil exports in Nigeria are actually oil and gas-based exports. In terms of export earnings, Nigeria is still largely a mono-exporter; we have not diversified much. See top three NON-OIL exporters. Dangote and Eleme are, in my view, oil- and gas-based companies. Dangote fertilizer is from urea. Starlink is Cocoa 1. Indorama Eleme Fertilizer & Chemical Ltd 13.13% 2. Dangote Fertilizer Ltd 8.41% 3. Starlink Global & Ideal Ltd 8.06% I have been tweeting and commenting on economics and personal finance on social media before you suddenly became a patriotic Nigerian. Look me up. What were President Tinubu's main economic actions? 1. Removal of PMS subsidy and 2. removal of FX Subsidy 3. Tax Reform. Look at my TL and see if I have supported or castigated these reforms. I took my time and ran extensive explainers on the positives of these policies; has anyone beaten me? If anything, the abuse has come from one side The problem is that you want people to worship a mortal; I can't. When the President removed the subsidy on FX, I praised him; when the President allowed food inflation to spike, I called him out. I hope when Tinubu leaves office, you can continue this patriotic drive. Regards
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Obidient, those badly weather beaten 'ratel' of OBI. Of their politics and of its sophistry. Election is free and fair if OBI won 90% of the votes in his base Region but the political contest space is being shrunk if others achieve that impossible feat in their space. Characteristically un-Nigerian but on 'Mungo Park' discovery voyage of one Nigeria. But scheming to make homelanders opposition on their soil If Obidient continue to oscillate in their politics of shenanigans, only one sure outcome inevitable: Igbos will be consigned to the role of back benchers of Nigerian politics
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Stop embellishing trash as reasonable or valid opinion. Does the holder of a certificate issued it to himself or herself ? Does the prescribed issuing authority has the legal power to do so ? If it is vested with such legal power and it had gone ahead to confirm the authenticity of the certificate its holder presented for public scrutiny. Whst concern do U have again ? That the holder shouldn't had been educated !
By Making Excuses for Unverified Certificates, We Are Planting Poison in the Soul of Our Society A nation that tolerates unverified academic credentials at any level of leadership, regardless of who is involved, risks destroying the very standards upon which a society is built. The issue is not about an individual. It is about standards, accountability, and the values we choose to pass on to the next generation. We cannot continue to excuse blurred, missing, questionable, or unverified credentials simply because they belong to someone we support. The process through which people attain positions of responsibility matters greatly. How we get into leadership is as important as what we do with leadership. If we normalise the abandonment of basic verification today, tomorrow we may have professors who never attended a university, doctors who never studied medicine, and judges who never studied law. That is the dangerous precedent we must never allow. Nigeria cannot sacrifice its future on the altar of today's transactional politics. We must build a society where truth is not partisan, standards are not negotiable, and accountability applies equally to everyone. History will judge us not only by those we defended, but by the principles we were willing to defend. We must choose truth over convenience, standards over sentiments, and the future over political expediency. A New Nigeria is possible, but only if we are willing to do the right thing, even when it is inconvenient. -PO
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It is sort of Income Support scheme with attachment of social responsibilities. Really strong empowerment scheme from the explanation provided by U But it is better run as a revolving loan scheme " Family Support loan" with little or no interest with moratorium and convenient repayment terms. Lack of veritable govt empowerment main reason Yoruba losing the edge in macro to medium scale businesses in the SW
Until yesterday, I saw this purely as a waste of state resources, but after seeing that they have kept doing it for decades, I decided to look deeper. The socio-economic data tells a different story. These mass weddings are functioning as targeted wealth redistribution and a major stimulus for the informal sector. These programs don't target the middle class; they target demographics priced out of the traditional family structure: orphans, widows of insecurity, and the extreme poor. Of course, culturally, a poor person doesn't see marrying more than one wife as an issue 🤣. The package (like Kano’s ₦1m) is essentially a direct asset transfer. It’s not cash for a party. It’s seed capital, foodstuff, and household assets. For destitute individuals, this serves as the foundational capital to start a micro-business and establish a self-sustaining household economy where traditional banking/credit fails. Now, follow the procurement money. Sourcing wardrobes, beds, and textiles for 1,500 couples acts as a massive localised stimulus package. By procuring locally, billions are injected directly into the grassroots informal economy, keeping artisans, tailors, and traders liquid. There’s also a hidden public health calculation. A strict prerequisite for these weddings is medical screening (Genotype, HIV, Hepatitis). For states with strained healthcare budgets, preventing congenital or terminal diseases saves billions in long-term public health costs. Finally, risk mitigation. The family unit is the primary social safety net here. A large demographic of unsupported widows or disenfranchised, unattached youth is a major security risk. Facilitating stable households acts as a preventative welfare and security measure. Are there better long-term investments? Absolutely. Education and infrastructure must take priority. But good public policy analysis requires looking at cultural context. What looks like "misplaced priorities" on paper is actually a highly adapted, grassroots safety net.
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Many people do not understand the concept of Subsidy. Subsidy is a negative tax. A price element covered by the government to enable U pay a lower price for a commodity. Now if a government is super wealthy, it can continue to finance negative taxes . But if it is not, it has no other choice than to ask the citizens to pay the commercial price of the commodity they are enjoying. Even when we were paying N 20k as tuition fees at a time, someone else's simply financing the balance on its full costs then. Today there is such means to finance its negative tax, and reason we paying far more higher fees Thankfully govt in good consideration today provides NELFUND as Income support for it. U can only scrap Subsidies when U have the means to finance it Please tell Mr SOWORE.
I will bring back fuel subsidy - Omoyele Sowore, Presidential Candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC).
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If we can't truly make politics not to be the ostensible mainstay economy for many, such inordinate ridiculous calls by the likes of Davido will become the order of the day. And someone might one day even call on the aliens on UFOs
When will this clownish behavior stop?
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Either ADELEKE or AMBO can prevail in next Saturday OSUN's gubernatorial election. But the win would have its own significance depending on who emerges : ADELEKE winning signifies votes driven by sentimental attachments to his family antecedents and goodwill AMBO winning is a testament of the electorates seeking a better performance alternative.
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KANO doing much to their pedigree converting fuel subsidies into wives' subsidies to grow Almajiris Economy. They should also share everyone's deepest concerns as they continue their match to their unenviable $ billions WIVES' ECONOMY
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We misunderstood Zaach, the NRS Chair in the context he was talking. We have unlimited ENDs ( what we want the govt to do for us) But Zaach obviously talking about the MEANS to these ENDs which are REFORMS. Reforms necessary because govt has no Revenue capacity to continuing funding Negative Taxes ( Subsidies ). Now we examine the Reform measures and their ENDs (lower case alphabets) A. Resources Reallocation a1. shit consumption to alternative cheaper energy CNG a2. shift large wastages in local PMS usage and false subsidies claims to greater Export sales in Crude Oil/PMS a3. Improve FX REVENUES and stabilize exchange rate a4. Improve international credit rating B. Resources Repricing b1. raise prices of commondities to away with negative taxes and boost Domestic Income b2. get more Resources Reallocation effect. C. Enhance Federation Revenue ( twin effects of A and B) c1. bounty Revenue for FG,States, LGs coming out as much as 300% fold c2. Income and welfare support for the Citizens: Minimum wage increase, Salaries upliftment, NELFUND, CreditCorp, free ceasarian operations, direct cash disbursements to the vulnerable etc c3. Income Redistribution to corporate bodies and individuals through Tax Reforms offering generous tax incentives. Corporate Profitabilities also greatly improved with stable exchange rates. D. Financing Support for Govt d1. borrowing to make up govt deficit spendings d2. loans restructuring to lower both debt servicing costs and ratio d3. borrowing for needed transformational goals to meet the vision of a $ 1 trillion Economy - the Coastal Highways and the upgrading of decaying infrastructures and technologies And Zaach is right again on another score - many criticisms borne out of ignorance and biases. Govt doing what ought to be done The other alternative would be to allow the Economy runs into total collapse.
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Love the Lord thy God with all your heart and thy being - the biblical injunction . The Lord himself enjoins us to worship GOD in truth and spirit Now, " Heart", " our being", " truth" and the "Spirit" all translate to another admonition of Paul the Apostle " I beseech U with the grace of the LORD not to conform with things of this world " Politics and politicking is the way of men and women and they decide its manners of rules . It is never in the Ten Commandments. Albeit the Lord asked us " to give Ceasar his dues and the LORD ,his". We must obey those in authority and respect the laws of the land. But still serve God with our heart and our being in truth and spirit. And Spirit is, the Spirit of GOD Let politicians play their politics Let others fulfill their civic responsibility by voting for candidates of their choice. A man of GOD.openly pushing for the political acceptability of a candidate is not any at all any longer doing the Lord's duty He is partisan and confirming to the World. And he stands to be judged by the very standards of the World even in his cassocks . Because as the Lord JESUS said " he has cast his pearls before swines" So much for the Cardinal.
Normally, when i see some of these things, i laugh. Let me just advise the APC, especially their media team. This attack against Cardinal John Onaiyekan and the catholic Bishops. Even if you feel they are supporting Peter Obi, there is a way you can reasonably bring them to your side without all these pedestrian insults. Especially Bwala, he's unnecessarily petty. There are times you learn to avoid going at clergymen, those are the conscience of the Nation. They might tell you things you don't like, they speak truth to power, regardless. More so, we are in a very religious Country where these clergymen wield strong influence in society. It is not every time you attack. It is not every time you dinigrate. It is not every time you play politics. There are many better ways to respond to clergymen. You should devise more refined ways to respond to clergymen and not this crude silliness all over the place. Bwala and his cotravellers are a huge disappointment. It seems the APC do not want their Government criticized and truth to be told. They want us all to be praise singers even in the face of evidential hardship and pain? The President has said people can criticize him. Does he really mean that? Anyways, you APC can continue with your attacks. This is beyond whether President Tinubu wins the election or not. We all saw and still see what is said of the late President Buhari. One way or the other, the truth must be told!
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The very reason PMB was dismal in office was simply he failed to reform a comatose economy. Fuel moving from 350 to 1400 has made many things hitherto impossible to be possible: 1. Highest Foreign Reserves in decades 2. Highest ever FAAC disbursements to States and LGs ( Many a time under PMB they got zero) 3. NELFUND financing thousands of students who would have missed University Education for tuition fees and stipends, Credit Scheme for Civil Servants, Income Support for vulnerables, Tax reductions for low Income earners etc 3. Coastal Highways all over Nigeria , new road infrastructures, reinforcement of old roads 3.Settlenents of huge debts to Disco to improve their capacity and capabilities. Today many homes are on close 24 hours daily power supply 4. Better funding of Recurrent and Capital Expenditures needs of the Security agencies resulting in noteabie successes in war against terrorism, banditry, kidnapping etc 5.Enhanced international recognition of all these by the international communities - a. vastly improved international credit ratings for Nigeria b. accolades by World powers 6. Stability in exchange rate and of Fuel supply etc All these missing under PMB simply because he failed to Reform. So therefore , we moving on 4 + another 4 till 2031 for consolidation. JOIN THE TRAIN!
Replying to @audgen @OpeBee
If you call Buhari dismal then Tinubu will be called what 😂😂😂😂 judging by his performance fuel from 210 to 1400 ,dollar from 350 to 1400 De play
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Your comments here are just populist , unscientific and unprofessional. The opposition can't make any admissible criticism of the debacle because they have only circumstantial evidence. And the government permitting the rumour mills to flourish by not naming a substantive defacto DG for the agency. Both the government and opposition have handled this matter shadow boxing. Reason populism inference like yours is thriving.
The agency was created to siphon cash from the budget and distribute it to politicians. You know it I know it The Press knows it All this English they are blowing online is to buy time so Nigerians forget it and move on. If the opposition parties had a shadow economic desk, they would feast on this. This is a system-side corruption scandal.
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