Crypto markets | structure + on-chain I study what moves price before it moves Threads • Charts • Conviction
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Japan ran a ¥536.6 billion trade deficit in September, its fifth straight month in the red, per the Ministry of Finance. Exports rose 16.7% on chip demand but missed the 20.1% forecast, and imports grew 18.9%. I'm watching the yen near 158 per dollar. Blip or trend?
That's a lot of people buying stocks with borrowed money. September's $26 billion jump alone is about a tenth of the $255 billion added this year, and that pace makes me want to keep my own buys cash only. Fuel or fuse?
BREAKING: US margin debt jumped +$26 billion in September, to $1.48 trillion, the 2nd-highest level on record.
Since the start of 2026, margin debt has surged +$255 billion, or +21%.
As a % of GDP, this metric is up to a record 4.5%, surpassing the previous peak of 3.6% set in 2021.
At the same time, the margin debt-to-M2 money supply ratio is up to 6.3%, the 3rd-highest level on record.
By comparison, this ratio peaked at 6.4% during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
Leveraged investing has never been more popular.
US homebuilder confidence fell 3 points to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012, per NAHB. 43% of builders cut prices, the most since at least 2020, and buyer traffic sank to 18. The index was 37 a year ago and 90 in November 2020. Bottom or lower? 🏠
Korea's Kospi rose nearly 100 points to 5,768 Monday, bouncing after its worst week since 2008, while the Nikkei slipped 0.6%.
Europe opened lower, with the DAX down 1.1% and the FTSE off 0.8%. Brent is down 2.4% at $107.23, per Yahoo Finance.
Bounce or trap? 🌏
SoftBank Group is trading near ¥4,771 Monday afternoon in Tokyo, down 3.5% from Friday's close and about 24% since its Oct 7 close of ¥6,310, per Yahoo Finance. That leaves the stock roughly 45% below its June 2 peak close of ¥8,632. Bounce or bust? 📉
A record 21.2% of new car buyers now pay $1,000 or more a month, up from 19.1% a year ago, and 69% took loans of six years or longer to make it work. Stretch or skip?
BREAKING: A record 21.2% of new-car buyers now pay $1,000 or more a month, up from 19.1% a year ago, per CNBC
69% of them took loans of six years or longer to make it work.
Weekly payer XDTE lost 12.39% on share price over the past year but still returned 16.33% once its 52 distributions were reinvested, while GPIX and DIVO held their share prices up and landed near 17% and 16%. Similar returns, very different ride. Price or payout?
Share price versus total return over 1 year.
October 16, 2025 close to October 16, 2026 close. Total return reinvests distributions:
Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF $XDTE: share price -12.39%, total return 16.33%
Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF $GPIX: share price 7.79%, total return 17.37%
Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF $DIVO: share price 8.96%, total return 16.37%
$XDTE paid 52 weekly distributions. $GPIX and $DIVO paid 12 monthly distributions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Distribution rate is not total return.
Tesla reports Q3 earnings Wednesday after the close, and the stock heads in at $354.72 after falling 7.3% last week, per Yahoo Finance. Deliveries already came in at 486,532, ahead of the 461,100 analysts expected, per Tesla and CNBC. Pop or drop? ⚡
Wall Street just had a split week 📊
Oil ripped higher while tech got hit hard.
Here is what moved from the Oct 9 close to the Oct 16 close 🧵
