Added external evaluators to monitor safety compliance is sensible generally. But keep in mind how the financial industry captured rating agencies during the housing bubble—there is also energy needed to watch the watchers and affirm the quality of 3rd-party evaluators.

New article at Equable.org — From investment portfolios to government revenues to public worker longevity, the spread of AI in the coming years will touch nearly every variable that determines the health of state and local pension plans. equable.org/resource/the-man…

Why public pension funds face greater valuation risk than ever, even as funding improves pionline.com/institutional-i…

Even I didn't see how dependent public pensions have become on A.I. until we took a close look the last few months... and I've been studying these plans for more than a decade. I don't think most public pension fund leaders realize what's going on. xitter.cf/anthonyrandazzo/status…

Colorado PERA holds 14.64% of its assets in AI companies. Minnesota SBI, 14.08%. NY State Teachers', 12.07%. Every large fund that transparently reports its public equity is heavy in AI — and the ones showing low numbers aren't the exceptions. They're the ones disclosing less. We ranked the 25 largest public pension funds against a basket of 51 AI companies, using Q1 2026 SEC filings. The pattern in the transparent funds is remarkably consistent: 6% to 15% of assets, clustered. Maryland shows just 1.68% — but less than 10% of its assets are internally managed and disclosed, so that's a measurement floor, not a smaller bet. Two funds disclose nothing at all. Here's the real story. What we can see is uniformly high. What we can't see — externally managed equities, and every fund's private equity positions in AI — only hides exposure that exists. None of the blind spots point downward. So the true industry number sits somewhere above what any of us can currently measure, and without better disclosure, not even the funds can state it with confidence. Full ranking of all 25: equable.org/report/state-of-…

Here is what we got wrong and where we were correct in last year's State of Pensions 2025 report. Every State of Pensions report includes forecasts. Most public plans end their fiscal years in June, but some don't wrap their annual measurement periods until December. So in January, we used liability forecasting and asset-class benchmark returns to predict returns and funded status. → We predicted the 2025 average investment return would be 9.5%. | The actual average was 10.4%. Markets performed stronger in the second half of 2025 than the first. Plans with fiscal years ending in September and December beat June-ending plans across almost every asset class. → National funded ratio — Predicted: 82.5%| Actual: 81.2% → Unfunded liabilities — Predicted: $1.27T | Actual: $1.37T Public payrolls grew slower than projected. States paid over 100% of required contributions as a percentage of payroll — but slower payroll growth meant fewer actual dollars toward debt paydown. Generally, our projection methods are directionally close, but we can't always see the full picture given some transparency limits. Each year we refine our methodology to factor in evolving norms — like slower growing payroll-growth — so that anywhere we are off is instructive. Our initial 2026 projections are now in — 85.0% funded, $1.13T shortfall — and we'll update those in October and January, and then grade those next year too: equable.org/report/state-of-…

27.1% of public pension assets are priced by valuation models, not markets — triple the pre-2008 share. Funded ratios are only as accurate as those models. We call this "valuation risk." It's the highest it's ever been for public plans. Deep dive on this over the coming weeks

Roughly $600 billion in public workers' retirement money is riding on AI companies — and that's likely an undercount. From SEC 13F filings of the 25 largest public pension funds: 8–10% of assets sit in a basket of 51 AI-related companies. That's $513B–$642B. External managers don't disclose holdings, so the transparent number understates it. We spend all of next week on what this means.

Public pension funds just closed their June 30 books. They have the best funded status in 17 years. Our State of Pensions 2026 is out today — 253 plans, all 50 states. 85% funded, up from 81.2%. Best since 2009, still below pre-2008 levels. Full report: equable.org/state-of-pension…

Italy officially a baseball country now 🇮🇹

Who are the Tigers fans polled here? 95% optimistic is just a bit outside. Are most of us optimistic about the season, generally sure—but we are also Detroit fans so disappointment is the baseline expectation. (Props to The Athletic for stellar engagement farming here.)

Adjusting Social Security benefits for max income earners by holding the current ceiling constant on a go forward basis is a reasonable place to start.