Investment blog for the Indian markets

Mumbai
Joined March 2012
alphaideas retweeted
John Cowperthwaite did more for human prosperity than any development economist drawing a government salary ever managed, and he did it by refusing to do almost anything at all. As Hong Kong's Financial Secretary from 1961 to 1971, Cowperthwaite ran one of the most radically free economies the modern world has ever seen. He kept taxes flat and low (the top income tax rate sat at 15%), ran consistent budget surpluses, abolished import tariffs, and blocked nearly every subsidy request that crossed his desk. When British civil servants demanded economic statistics to justify intervention, he refused to collect them. Not out of laziness. He genuinely believed that giving planners numbers gave them excuses. The results? In 1960, Hong Kong's per capita income stood at roughly 28% of Britain's. By 1997, Hong Kong had surpassed Britain. That trajectory happened without natural resources, without foreign aid, and without a single five-year plan drafted by well-intentioned economists from Oxford. Hong Kong had a harbor, people willing to work, and a bureaucrat with enough intellectual discipline to keep the state out of their way. Capital flows toward secure property rights and reliable rules, and flees the moment politicians start allocating it. Every industry Beijing picked as a "priority sector" during those same decades burned through subsidies and produced junk. Hong Kong's industries emerged organically, serving real demand, building real wealth. You benefit from this history whether you know it or not, because Hong Kong's success gave the world a controlled experiment that still embarrasses every advocate of managed development. The control group thrived. The planned economies didn't. Cowperthwaite retired to St Andrews, received a knighthood, and gave almost no interviews. That restraint was entirely in character.
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Truth (3067BCE) vs Fiction (5561BCE) 3067BCE is the single date for the Mahabharata war which proves all 14 major parameters of the Mahabharata astronomy as against 5561BCE which fails every single criteria of the Astronomy verses given in the text.
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alphaideas retweeted
Gross incompetency from Indian certificate authority eMudhra. You had one job: generate a 384 bit private keys and instead you used: 4, 56, 66, 115, 155, 156, 230, and 237. This allows attackers to issue certificates for any websites. Embarrassing that it’s a family business run by largely computer illiterate people. Only 1 of the 3 have a remotely computer-related background and even they never actually worked a technical job in their life. If you look at the LinkedIn, their tech team is young, from tier 3 education and paid sort of bottom barrel. Imagine how many attacks you can design with AI given the existence of this genre of gross negligence.
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alphaideas retweeted
IPOs. Last 3 years 1077 companies came out with IPOs. 539 companies are below their IPO price (about 50%). A little more than 40% are down more than 50% from their IPO price. Less than 20% of the IPO's are above 100% up from their IPO price. One needs to be extremely selective.
Some startling data on the deep dive of IPOs. Contrary to perception, IPOs (listing price to CMP) underperformed all the 3 indices (NIFTY, BSE Small & Midcap). We looked at IPO performance of total 263 stocks since listed from 2010 till Feb 2022 @jitenkparmar @niteen_india
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The Nifty 500 is down 9% from its all time high. But the median stock in the index is down 29% from its own peak. The gap is even wider in small caps. The Nifty Smallcap 250 is down 5% while its median stock has fallen 32%. The correction looks very different when you look beyond the index numbers. Here's how deep the fall has been across large, mid and small caps.
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She runs a small business of oxidised jewellery, a favourite product of women. See the number of parcels people returned after wearing in Navratri. Seller will bear the loss because dehatis don’t care. This is the story of every other seller these days. You can rent the jewellery from nearby stores. Don’t misuse the service. But of course, “apna kaam banta-bhaad me jaaye janta” is the real philosophy people of this country live by.
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alphaideas retweeted
Is Piramal's gold loan commentary even worth it? Twitter has gone gaga over Piramal's statement on its Q2FY27 concall that "23% of all gold loans have gone to customers who have defaulted somewhere else". While this data may or may not be true, anyone giving credence to this should understand these two things: 1) Gold loans have always been a "no questions asked loan" i.e. you give me gold, i do your KYC, check the purity of gold, and lend you the money". I am not concerned with your business activities or your cashflows or your other loans. Even historically, 10-20% of customers would have been defaulters somewhere. Just that now credit bureau data is available, it can be presented in a sensational manner. 2) Piramal's comments seem more like that of an analyst, who just looks at data and tries to comment. Their business experience in gold loans is just two quarters. Their loan book is around 70crs, yes only 70crs (many old branches of Muthoot or IIFL may have more AUM than entire of Piramal's gold as of today) The competition narrative around gold loans also seems to be overblown. Cos like IIFL & FedFina who have reported earnings, have been able to grow well and defend their yields too. Muthoot Finance is trading at 8x earnings and probably 2.0x book (cheapest in history), making it the cheapest large cap in India (and growing at 18%+)
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alphaideas retweeted
עוד עדות של בעלת עסק שאיבדה את כל עולמה. פה מדובר באלין לי (במקור הואנג) בת 50. דור שני או שלישי למהגרים מסין. היא דוברת צרפתית מושלמת עם מבטא פריזאי מושלם. את המסעדה הקטנה הזו ברובע העשירי קנתה לפני 7 שנים מיהודי זקן ממוצא אלג׳יראי (בשם ר. חנונה). אלין מספרת שלקראת השעה 14:30 כשהם ראו שהרחוב הופך מסוכן הם הורידו את כל שבכות הברזל ונשארו בפנים. תוך זמן קצר הם שמעו חבטות עזות והשבכות הורמו מכל הכיוונים. הפורעים (שהיו 6 או 7) חבטו בחלונות עד ששברו אותם והיכו אותה עד אבדן הכרה (שימו לב לפנס בעין ימין שלה). היא טוענת שמה שהפתיע אותה זה שהראשון שנכנס לתוך המסעדה היה ילד בן 12 ואחריו חבורת בנות צעירות עם שקי קניות. הם שדדו כל מה שאפשר היה לשדוד, שברו את הכל והציתו.
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beautiful explanation. this is 100% happening. xitter.cf/sotak/status/211179423…
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