Is Piramal's gold loan commentary even worth it?
Twitter has gone gaga over Piramal's statement on its Q2FY27 concall that "23% of all gold loans have gone to customers who have defaulted somewhere else". While this data may or may not be true, anyone giving credence to this should understand these two things:
1) Gold loans have always been a "no questions asked loan" i.e. you give me gold, i do your KYC, check the purity of gold, and lend you the money". I am not concerned with your business activities or your cashflows or your other loans.
Even historically, 10-20% of customers would have been defaulters somewhere. Just that now credit bureau data is available, it can be presented in a sensational manner.
2) Piramal's comments seem more like that of an analyst, who just looks at data and tries to comment. Their business experience in gold loans is just two quarters. Their loan book is around 70crs, yes only 70crs (many old branches of Muthoot or IIFL may have more AUM than entire of Piramal's gold as of today)
The competition narrative around gold loans also seems to be overblown. Cos like IIFL & FedFina who have reported earnings, have been able to grow well and defend their yields too.
Muthoot Finance is trading at 8x earnings and probably 2.0x book (cheapest in history), making it the cheapest large cap in India (and growing at 18%+)
Gold - tired or getting ready for second run?
The recent volatility in gold has unnerved many investors. Read on to understand:
1) Reasons for the recent correction & volatility
2) Reasons why bull market can re-start towards end of 2026
3) Aawakening of the wester investor
4) How gold helps your family stay rich over the decades
greenedgewealth.com/gold-set…
Northern Arc - Overhang over?
Big block (13%) got exchanged today morning. Accion & Fidelity private equity were looking to sell since long.
1) At 306, stock is trading at 1.1x FY27 book
2) Growth of 20%+ & RoE of 14%+ possible
3) MFI & Fintech cycle is getting stronger
Letter to our investors (June 2026)
1) Dark clouds over Indian economy are clearing
2) Next 12 months could see a good rally
3) Macros, stocks, gold - how are you positioned?
greenedgewealth.com/India-st…
Investing Eleven Conclave 2.0
Excited to share that I would be presenting two ideas tomorrow - one in the precision engineering space, other in electricity space
learn.alphawealth.co.in/lear…
India story - Calm inside, storm outside
1) Internal variables are improving
2) External variables deteriorated, but can soon stabilize 3) Navigating the risks & opportunities in such situation
greenedgewealth.com/India-st…
Northern Arc - Good performance not rewarded?
While this is story of many smallcaps, Northern Arc warrants a deeper look
1) Analysis of Q3FY26 results
2) Re-cap of the long term thesis
greenedgewealth.com/Northern…
Tata Capital IPO
Price band = 310 to 326 per share.
At 326, it will trade at 3.2x on P/B (post money), which is ~5% discount to HDBs valuation.
Tata Cap is also "jack of all & master of none" NBFC. Not much to gain for IPO investors and 55% loss for unlisted mkt investors.
Where is the NBFC upcycle?
1) Housing Finance
2) Vehicle Finance
3) Gold Finance
4) Micro Finance
5) Consumer Finance
A deep-dive into 5 sub-segments and 45 NBFCs
youtube.com/watch?v=iLNQMofz…
Where is the NBFC upcycle?
1) Housing Finance
2) Vehicle Finance
3) Gold Finance
4) Micro Finance
5) Consumer Finance
A deep-dive into 5 sub-segments and 45 NBFCs
youtube.com/watch?v=2M_ztxjZ…
JM Financial Q1 - Walking the talk
Focused business
1) Strong traction in capital markets
2) Expansion in wealth mgmt
3) Scale-up in private credit
4) Stake sale in HFC at ~3.2x book
Old business
1) NPA pain over, recovery started
Interesting times ahead. Read our past notes.
Discussion on NBFCs
GreenEdge Wealth on CNBC TV18's new show "Finding Alpha" with @Nigel__DSouza
Discussion on housing fin, CV fin, gold fin, consumer fin, micro lending. Below is the link to the whole conversation
youtu.be/MNlcYv7kUX8?si=qPyF…
Northern Arc - Riding the NBFC wave
The business cycle for NBFCs is turning (+ve).
A deep dive into an NBFC which can give you an exposure to 100s of other NBFCs and millions of customers.
greenedgewealth.com/Northern…
HDB Financial - Missing the HDFC magic
Private market investors are shocked to discover the valuations have corrected from 5.5x book to 3.5x book in the IPO
Read on to find out the correct valuation for HDB
greenedgewealth.com/HDB-Fina…
Microfinance - This time is different!
When Brahma (creator) and Vishnu (preserver) are disappointed, what will is take to turnaround?
Probably, its time for Mahesh (destroyer) to start the dance of creative destruction
greenedgewealth.com/Microfin…
JM Financial - Entering the fast lane
A deep dive on 12 months of transformation and what lies ahead:
1) End of a pain cycle
2) Improved capital allocation
3) Accelerated growth in Wealth, AMC & HFC
4) Rising dividends and undemanding valuations
greenedgewealth.com/JM-Finan…
Microfinance - How deep is the pain?
Stage 1: Accept the problem (Jun'24)
Stage 2: Growth decelerates, customers deleverage & provide for bad asset (Up to Mar'25?)
Stage 3: Good cycle starts (Jun'25?), strong players bounce back
youtube.com/watch?v=ZpLwkwCN…
@kothariabhishek
Metals & Mining
Considered "un-investible" in the past decade, these sectors are now showing promise! Take a deep dive into each of them
1) Coal
2) Oil & Gas
3) Iron Ore & Manganese Ore
4) Aluminium & Copper
5) Gold & Silver
youtu.be/osKVi2JSIzQ?si=svlU…
Gold loans - Strong cycle, but few beneficiaries?
Despite the best demand environment in many years, why are only 2 players able to benefit from it?
List 1: PSU, Pvt banks, Fintechs, Manappuram, IIFL & CSB Bank
List 2: Muthoot Finance, Muthoot Fincrop
tinyurl.com/4xp9wp4d
Capital allocation & JM Financial
Improved capital allocation is one of the cornerstones of long term wealth creation.
In case of JM, decision to improve capital allocation has been recently taken. Can wealth creation be far behind?
tinyurl.com/nhcbnsmp
