π¨ NEW HANOVER COUNTY β MONDAY EARLY VOTE Update #5
π³οΈ 2,435 votes today as of 12:51 PM
+783 since 11:33 AM
π MONDAY PARTY TOTALS:
π΅ DEM: 891 (36.6%)
βͺ UNA: 913 (37.5%)
π΄ REP: 603 (24.8%)
Other/Unaccounted: 28
π CHANGE IN MONDAYβS SHARE:
π΅ DEM: +0.6 pp
βͺ UNA: -1.8 pp
π΄ REP: +0.8 pp
π LAST 783 VOTERS:
π΅ DEM: +296 (37.8%)
βͺ UNA: +264 (33.7%)
π΄ REP: +206 (26.3%)
Total early vote: 12,372.
π¨ NEW HANOVER COUNTY β MONDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ 1,652 votes today as of 11:33 AM
+588 since 10:34 AM
π MONDAY PARTY TOTALS:
π΅ DEM: 595 (36.0%)
βͺ UNA: 649 (39.3%)
π΄ REP: 397 (24.0%)
Other/Unaccounted: 11
π CHANGE IN MONDAYβS SHARE:
π΅ DEM: +0.5 pp
βͺ UNA: -0.4 pp
π΄ REP: -0.1 pp
π LAST 588 VOTERS:
π΅ DEM: +217 (36.9%)
βͺ UNA: +227 (38.6%)
π΄ REP: +141 (24.0%)
New Hanover County NC Monday Update #3
π³οΈ 1,064 votes today as of 10:34 AM
+486 since 9:39 AM
π MONDAY PARTY BREAKDOWN:
π΅ DEM: 378 (35.5%)
βͺ UNA: 422 (39.7%)
π΄ REP: 256 (24.1%)
Other/Unaccounted: 8
π DAILY SHARE SHIFT SINCE 9:39 AM:
π΅ DEM: 36.3% β 35.5% (-0.8 pp)
βͺ UNA: 40.7% β 39.7% (-1.0 pp)
π΄ REP: 22.0% β 24.1% (+2.1 pp)
π OF THE 486 NEW VOTERS:
π΅ DEM: +168 (34.6%)
βͺ UNA: +187 (38.5%)
π΄ REP: +129 (26.5%)
Total early vote: 11,011.
π¨ NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NC β MONDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ 578 votes cast today as of 9:39 AM
+429 since 8:38 AM
π MONDAY'S PARTY BREAKDOWN:
π΅ DEM: 210 (36.3%)
βͺ UNA: 235 (40.7%)
π΄ REP: 127 (22.0%)
Other/Unaccounted: 6
π SHIFT SINCE FIRST UPDATE:
π΅ DEM: 39.6% β 36.3% (-3.3 pp)
βͺ UNA: 34.2% β 40.7% (+6.4 pp)
π΄ REP: 24.8% β 22.0% (-2.9 pp)
π OF THE 429 NEW VOTERS:
π΅ DEM: +151 (35.2%)
βͺ UNA: +184 (42.9%)
π΄ REP: +90 (21.0%)
Unaffiliated voters increased their share of Monday's turnout by 6.4 percentage points in the past hour.
1st New Hanover County NC update for the day.
π³οΈ 149 votes cast so far today
As of 8:38 AM | October 19
π TODAY'S PARTY BREAKDOWN:
π΅ DEM: 59 (39.6%)
βͺ UNA: 51 (34.2%)
π΄ REP: 37 (24.8%)
Other/Unaccounted: 2 (1.3%)
I'll update with % shifts and vote shifts as the later updates come in. Again, this is the only county in NC which updates hourly.
π¨ NC EARLY VOTE: WHOβS STILL LEFT TO VOTE?
As of Oct. 18, hereβs NCβs remaining active electorate by voter propensity.
4/4 voters:
π΅ DEM: 650,627
π΄ REP: 771,468
βͺ UNA: 674,218
3/4 voters:
π΅ DEM: 317,464
π΄ REP: 374,253
βͺ UNA: 385,345
2/4 voters:
π΅ DEM: 295,708
π΄ REP: 324,001
βͺ UNA: 394,926
1/4 voters:
π΅ DEM: 269,949
π΄ REP: 300,648
βͺ UNA: 463,188
0/4 voters:
π΅ DEM: 234,874
π΄ REP: 225,511
βͺ UNA: 617,062
π TOTAL REMAINING:
π΅ DEM: 1,768,622
π΄ REP: 1,995,881
βͺ UNA: 2,534,739
π¨ NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 4 PROPENSITY SHIFTS
How has NCβs remaining electorate changed from Oct. 17 β Oct. 18?
Based on participation in the last 4 general elections (2018β24):
4/4 voters remaining:
π΅ DEM: 650,627 (β7,855)
π΄ REP: 771,468 (β1,676)
βͺ UNA: 674,218 (β5,059)
3/4 remaining:
π΅ DEM: 317,464 (β1,699)
π΄ REP: 374,253 (β451)
βͺ UNA: 385,345 (β1,384)
2/4 remaining:
π΅ DEM: 295,708 (β1,110)
π΄ REP: 324,001 (β231)
βͺ UNA: 394,926 (β855)
1/4 remaining:
π΅ DEM: 269,949 (β631)
π΄ REP: 300,648 (β176)
βͺ UNA: 463,188 (β873)
0/4 remaining:
π΅ DEM: 234,874 (β1,457)
π΄ REP: 225,511 (β388)
βͺ UNA: 617,062 (β1,843)
The increase in 0/4 reflects me updating the voter registration file last night.
π¨ NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 4 β SUNDAY, OCT. 18
24,257 voters recorded Sunday (IPEV + Mail).
Sundayβs party breakdown:
π΅ DEM: 12,605 (52.0%)
π΄ REP: 2,163 (8.9%)
βͺ UNA: 9,431 (38.9%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
π TOTAL VOTED SO FAR:
π΅ DEM: 222,614 (45.8%)
π΄ REP: 95,845 (19.7%)
βͺ UNA: 166,072 (34.2%)
Other: 1,000 (0.2%)
π³οΈ TOTAL: 485,531
Replying to @Neelhippal17
Union voted yesterday but they didn't vote today.
Use this for checking into Union carolinaelections.com/trackeβ¦
π¨ DURHAM COUNTY, NC β EARLY VOTE UPDATE
π³οΈ TOTAL: 24,812
Previous: 21,616
NEW: +3,196
π PARTY β NEW VOTERS:
π΅ DEM: +1,967 (61.5%)
π΄ REP: +106 (3.3%)
βͺ UNA: +1,117 (35.0%)
Other: +6
Cumulative party share shift:
π΅ DEM: -0.26 pp
π΄ REP: -0.18 pp
βͺ UNA: +0.44 pp
π RACE β NET CHANGE:
β’ White: +1,686 (52.7%)
β’ Black: +961 (30.1%)
β’ Undesignated: +251
β’ Other: +163
β’ Asian: +127
Cumulative racial share:
β’ White: -0.44 pp
β’ Black: +0.06 pp
Unaffiliated voters continue gaining share of Durham's early electorate.
π¨ WAKE COUNTY, NC β SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ TOTAL IPEV: 65,984
Sunday added: +9,860
π SUNDAY PARTY BREAKDOWN:
π΅ DEM: +4,716 (47.8%)
π΄ REP: +903 (9.2%)
βͺ UNA: +4,219 (42.8%)
Cumulative share shift:
π΅ DEM +0.17 pp
π΄ REP -0.47 pp
βͺ UNA +0.32 pp
π SUNDAY RACIAL BREAKDOWN:
White: +5,715
Black: +2,172
Asian: +594
Other: +543
Undesignated: +747
Cumulative share shift:
White: -1.09 pp
Black: +0.38 pp
Asian: +0.33 pp
β° Sunday: 1,972 voters/hour
Approximately +40.6% vs. Saturdayβs
π¨ MECKLENBURG COUNTY, NC β SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ Sunday: 7,040 voters
β° Hours: 1β5 PM (4 hours)
π TOTAL IPEV: 54,100
π¬ Approved Mail: 3,280
β
COMBINED: 57,380
VOTERS PER HOUR:
Thursday: 1,539*
Friday: 1,551*
Saturday: 1,647*
Sunday: 1,760
π Sunday hourly pace:
+6.9% vs. Saturday
+13.5% vs. Friday
Sunday had the strongest hourly turnout of the first four days
Replying to @SamHerndon79338
They donβt show partisan data in their evening postings so we wonβt know until the morning.
π¨ ORANGE COUNTY, NC β SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ Sunday: 2,014 voters
β° Hours: Noonβ5 PM (5 hours)
π TOTAL IPEV: 13,022
VOTERS PER HOUR:
Thursday: 373*
Friday: 362*
Saturday: 364*
Sunday: 403
π Sunday hourly pace:
+10.7% vs. Saturday
+11.2% vs. Friday
Despite fewer total ballots Sunday, Orange County recorded its highest hourly voting pace of the first four days
π¨ CUMBERLAND COUNTY, NC β SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
π³οΈ Sunday: 1,187 voters
β° Voting hours: 2β5 PM (3 hours)
π TOTAL IPEV: 12,294
VOTERS PER HOUR:
Thursday: 432*
Friday: 371*
Saturday: 269*
Sunday: 396
π Sunday vs. Saturday: +47.2% hourly
π Sunday vs. Friday: +6.8% hourly
Despite fewer raw votes Sunday, turnout was stronger per hour than both Friday and Saturday.
Replying to @DurmBull @priceyharrison
Honestly, itβs baffling. If youβre saying you want folks to lie (if they can in fact walk) to use something set aside to help those in need.
Not sure what sheβs thinking.

