1st New Hanover County NC update for the day.
🗳️ 149 votes cast so far today
As of 8:38 AM | October 19
📊 TODAY'S PARTY BREAKDOWN:
🔵 DEM: 59 (39.6%)
⚪ UNA: 51 (34.2%)
🔴 REP: 37 (24.8%)
Other/Unaccounted: 2 (1.3%)
I'll update with % shifts and vote shifts as the later updates come in. Again, this is the only county in NC which updates hourly.
🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NC — MONDAY EARLY VOTE
🗳️ 578 votes cast today as of 9:39 AM
+429 since 8:38 AM
📊 MONDAY'S PARTY BREAKDOWN:
🔵 DEM: 210 (36.3%)
⚪ UNA: 235 (40.7%)
🔴 REP: 127 (22.0%)
Other/Unaccounted: 6
📈 SHIFT SINCE FIRST UPDATE:
🔵 DEM: 39.6% → 36.3% (-3.3 pp)
⚪ UNA: 34.2% → 40.7% (+6.4 pp)
🔴 REP: 24.8% → 22.0% (-2.9 pp)
📊 OF THE 429 NEW VOTERS:
🔵 DEM: +151 (35.2%)
⚪ UNA: +184 (42.9%)
🔴 REP: +90 (21.0%)
Unaffiliated voters increased their share of Monday's turnout by 6.4 percentage points in the past hour.
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 4 — SUNDAY, OCT. 18
24,257 voters recorded Sunday (IPEV + Mail).
Sunday’s party breakdown:
🔵 DEM: 12,605 (52.0%)
🔴 REP: 2,163 (8.9%)
⚪ UNA: 9,431 (38.9%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
📊 TOTAL VOTED SO FAR:
🔵 DEM: 222,614 (45.8%)
🔴 REP: 95,845 (19.7%)
⚪ UNA: 166,072 (34.2%)
Other: 1,000 (0.2%)
🗳️ TOTAL: 485,531
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 4 PROPENSITY SHIFTS
How has NC’s remaining electorate changed from Oct. 17 → Oct. 18?
Based on participation in the last 4 general elections (2018–24):
4/4 voters remaining:
🔵 DEM: 650,627 (↓7,855)
🔴 REP: 771,468 (↓1,676)
⚪ UNA: 674,218 (↓5,059)
3/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 317,464 (↓1,699)
🔴 REP: 374,253 (↓451)
⚪ UNA: 385,345 (↓1,384)
2/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 295,708 (↓1,110)
🔴 REP: 324,001 (↓231)
⚪ UNA: 394,926 (↓855)
1/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 269,949 (↓631)
🔴 REP: 300,648 (↓176)
⚪ UNA: 463,188 (↓873)
0/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 234,874 (↑1,457)
🔴 REP: 225,511 (↑388)
⚪ UNA: 617,062 (↑1,843)
The increase in 0/4 reflects me updating the voter registration file last night.
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: WHO’S STILL LEFT TO VOTE?
As of Oct. 18, here’s NC’s remaining active electorate by voter propensity.
4/4 voters:
🔵 DEM: 650,627
🔴 REP: 771,468
⚪ UNA: 674,218
3/4 voters:
🔵 DEM: 317,464
🔴 REP: 374,253
⚪ UNA: 385,345
2/4 voters:
🔵 DEM: 295,708
🔴 REP: 324,001
⚪ UNA: 394,926
1/4 voters:
🔵 DEM: 269,949
🔴 REP: 300,648
⚪ UNA: 463,188
0/4 voters:
🔵 DEM: 234,874
🔴 REP: 225,511
⚪ UNA: 617,062
📊 TOTAL REMAINING:
🔵 DEM: 1,768,622
🔴 REP: 1,995,881
⚪ UNA: 2,534,739
🚨 CUMBERLAND COUNTY, NC — SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
🗳️ Sunday: 1,187 voters
⏰ Voting hours: 2–5 PM (3 hours)
📊 TOTAL IPEV: 12,294
VOTERS PER HOUR:
Thursday: 432*
Friday: 371*
Saturday: 269*
Sunday: 396
📈 Sunday vs. Saturday: +47.2% hourly
📈 Sunday vs. Friday: +6.8% hourly
Despite fewer raw votes Sunday, turnout was stronger per hour than both Friday and Saturday.
🚨 WAKE COUNTY, NC — SUNDAY EARLY VOTE
🗳️ TOTAL IPEV: 65,984
Sunday added: +9,860
📊 SUNDAY PARTY BREAKDOWN:
🔵 DEM: +4,716 (47.8%)
🔴 REP: +903 (9.2%)
⚪ UNA: +4,219 (42.8%)
Cumulative share shift:
🔵 DEM +0.17 pp
🔴 REP -0.47 pp
⚪ UNA +0.32 pp
📊 SUNDAY RACIAL BREAKDOWN:
White: +5,715
Black: +2,172
Asian: +594
Other: +543
Undesignated: +747
Cumulative share shift:
White: -1.09 pp
Black: +0.38 pp
Asian: +0.33 pp
⏰ Sunday: 1,972 voters/hour
Approximately +40.6% vs. Saturday’s
🚨 DURHAM COUNTY, NC — EARLY VOTE UPDATE
🗳️ TOTAL: 24,812
Previous: 21,616
NEW: +3,196
📊 PARTY — NEW VOTERS:
🔵 DEM: +1,967 (61.5%)
🔴 REP: +106 (3.3%)
⚪ UNA: +1,117 (35.0%)
Other: +6
Cumulative party share shift:
🔵 DEM: -0.26 pp
🔴 REP: -0.18 pp
⚪ UNA: +0.44 pp
📊 RACE — NET CHANGE:
• White: +1,686 (52.7%)
• Black: +961 (30.1%)
• Undesignated: +251
• Other: +163
• Asian: +127
Cumulative racial share:
• White: -0.44 pp
• Black: +0.06 pp
Unaffiliated voters continue gaining share of Durham's early electorate.
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE UPDATE — OCT. 17
🗳️ 61,353 voted in-person Saturday
🔵 DEM: 27,801 (45.3%)
🔴 REP: 9,946 (16.2%)
⚪ UNA: 23,430 (38.2%)
Other: 176 (0.3%)
📊 TOTAL IPEV: 461,048
📬 TOTAL MAIL: 40,273
🚨 TOTAL VOTES CAST: 501,321
COMBINED IPEV + MAIL BY PARTY:
🔵 DEM: 227,388 (45.4%)
🔴 REP: 100,650 (20.1%)
⚪ UNA: 172,234 (34.4%)
Other: 1,049 (0.2%)
North Carolina has officially crossed HALF A MILLION VOTES in the 2026 general election!
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 3 PROPENSITY SHIFTS
How has NC’s remaining electorate changed from Oct. 16 → Oct. 17?
Based on participation in the last 4 general elections (2018–24).
4/4 voters remaining:
🔵 DEM: 658,482 (↓17,397)
🔴 REP: 773,144 (↓6,848)
⚪ UNA: 679,277 (↓13,194)
3/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 319,163 (↓4,002)
🔴 REP: 374,704 (↓1,631)
⚪ UNA: 386,729 (↓3,707)
2/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 296,818 (↓2,677)
🔴 REP: 324,232 (↓890)
⚪ UNA: 395,781 (↓2,639)
1/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 270,580 (↓2,538)
🔴 REP: 300,824 (↓674)
⚪ UNA: 464,061 (↓2,632)
0/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 233,417 (↓1,758)
🔴 REP: 225,123 (↓447)
⚪ UNA: 615,219 (↓2,052)
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: How Saturday’s 2026 voters voted in 2024
Of the 60,754 active voters who voted IPEV on Oct. 17:
• 52,140 (85.8%) voted early in 2024
• 1,905 (3.1%) voted by mail
• 2,019 (3.3%) voted Election Day
• 4,690 (7.7%) didn’t vote in 2024
Breakdown by party:
🔵 DEM (27,485)
• Early: 23,893 (86.9%)
• Election Day: 819 (3.0%)
• Mail: 801 (2.9%)
• Didn’t vote: 1,972 (7.2%)
🔴 REP (9,893)
• Early: 8,919 (90.2%)
• Election Day: 282 (2.9%)
• Mail: 201 (2.0%)
• Didn’t vote: 491 (5.0%)
⚪ UNA (23,206)
• Early: 19,203 (82.8%)
• Election Day: 906 (3.9%)
• Mail: 896 (3.9%)
• Didn’t vote: 2,201 (9.5%)
Saturday’s IPEV electorate had a larger share of voters without a 2024 vote than the cumulative electorate through Friday (7.7% vs. 5.6%).
#ncpol
🚨 GASTON COUNTY, NC — EARLY VOTE UPDATE
Total turnout: 8,075 → 10,068 (+1,993)
New IPEV voters since yesterday:
🔵 DEM: +727 (36.5%)
🔴 REP: +604 (30.3%)
⚪ UNA: +659 (33.1%)
TOTAL VOTED SO FAR: 10,068
🔵 DEM: 3,745 (37.2%)
🔴 REP: 3,165 (31.4%)
⚪ UNA: 3,139 (31.2%)
Cumulative party share shift:
DEM: -0.17 pp
REP: -0.29 pp
UNA: +0.47 pp
Unaffiliated voters gained share, while both major parties slipped slightly.
#ncpol
🚨 WAKE COUNTY, NC — SATURDAY EARLY VOTE UPDATE
🗳️ TOTAL VOTED: 56,124
Up 12,196 from Friday (+27.8%)
📊 PARTY — NEW VOTERS:
🔵 DEM: +5,496 (45.1%)
🔴 REP: +1,292 (10.6%)
⚪ UNA: +5,359 (43.9%)
Other: +50
Cumulative party share shift:
🔵 DEM: -0.46 pp
🔴 REP: -0.49 pp
⚪ UNA: +0.91 pp
📊 RACE — NEW VOTERS:
• White: +7,790 (63.9%)
• Black: +2,189 (17.9%)
• Undesignated: +848 (7.0%)
• Asian: +635 (5.2%)
• Other: +633 (5.2%)
• Multiracial/Native/Pacific: +102
Cumulative racial share shift:
• White: -0.39 pp
• Black: -0.45 pp
• Asian: +0.39 pp
• Other: +0.21 pp
Unaffiliated voters gained nearly a full percentage point of turnout share, while both major parties declined.
🚨 BRUNSWICK COUNTY, NC — SATURDAY EARLY VOTE
🗳️ TOTAL: 10,784
Friday: 8,817
NEW: +1,967 (+22.3%)
📊 PARTY BREAKDOWN OF NEW VOTERS:
🔴 REP: +579 (29.4%)
🔵 DEM: +598 (30.4%)
⚪ UNA: +787 (40.0%)
Other: +3
📈 CUMULATIVE PARTY SHARE SHIFT:
🔴 REP: +0.08 pp
🔵 DEM: -0.38 pp
⚪ UNA: +0.30 pp
Unaffiliated voters made up 40% of the additional turnout, while Democratic registration lost share in Brunswick County's early electorate.
Last county I'll do for the day. I'll post today's update tomorrow. Ultimately it seems like Republicans will be up marginally, and Dems will drop perhaps .25% unless the other counties we don't have party data for, were really good for Dems in %. Dems will net raw votes.