🚨 🚨It has taken me a while to process what is happening to Iran’s crude exports as we are truly in uncharted territory: 1. Even before the war began Iran was exported 1.5 million barrels a day and that was all going to China. 2. Over the weekend the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Iranian crude and Iran has started selling that crude to India for the first time since 2019. As it’s been attacking Iran. (Still hard for me to wrap my head around this). 3. The real story isn’t sanctions relief. It’s that Tehran has effectively privatized passage through the Straits of Hormuz. 4. In the middle of the war Iran has been negotiating bilaterally with 🇨🇳 , 🇮🇳, 🇵🇰, 🇧🇩 effectively letting tankers pass based on cargo origin and buyer identity (no Israeli or America cargoes are allowed to pass) 5. 🇯🇵, 🇫🇷 and 🇮🇹 have also started to negotiate with Tehran for part of their cargoes. Iran is treating passage through the Straits like 🇪🇬 treats passage through the Suez Canal. 6. This is unprecedented leverage that Iran didn’t have before the war and difficult to see them ever letting this go unless US offers something significant in return. 7. Iran has effectively managed to break 30 years of energy sanctions against it by defending itself against American and Israeli attacks by weaponizing its leverage in the energy markets -which to date it had never done before. Extraordinary #IranWar‌ #energymarkets #OOPP

Thread one how the war with #Iran will effect energy markets moving forward: 1. Hormuz numbers don't lie. 20M bbl/day of oil. That's 20% of global LNG. Both suspended at once. Market has not seen anything like this EVER. 2. Brent was at $70 on oversupply just weeks ago. That buffer is gone. June-Dec spread blown from $3.50 to $9. Near-term scarcity is real. 3. Everyone's fixated on oil. I keep coming back to LNG. Qatar force majeure hits different when Europe is sitting at 46 BCM storage heading into summer. Last year they had 60. Asia and Europe are now in the same bidding war. 4. North Field East was already pushed to late 2026. Now even that's uncertain. The 2027-28 supply relief the market was counting on is gone. Nobody's repriced that yet. 5. The Saudi/UAE infrastructure strikes are what I'm watching most closely. That's where this goes from disruption to destruction. $85-105 Brent is base case. Above that we're in uncharted territory. 6. Ceasefire tomorrow changes nothing structurally. Shut-in fields don't flip back on. Damaged refineries don't self-repair. War risk premiums don't vanish from tanker routes overnight. 7. Next 3-6 months will mean higher oil, tight LNG spot, sticky shipping costs. The tail risk is still underpriced. Act accordingly.