A full-scale Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea seems unlikely in the short term (days and weeks), but likely in the medium to long term (months to years). There are obviously a lot of variables here, but when people tell you what they want to do, believe them. Ethiopian officials are laying the groundwork to legally justify military action against Eritrea on self-defense grounds, and Ethiopian government-affiliated or -aligned institutions are saying everything up to regime change is justifiable. If Isaias is unwilling to comply with Ethiopian demands related to Eritrean support for Ethiopian rebels and Assab, which seems unlikely, then we're talking about a matter of when, not if. Abiy presumably doesn't want to get bogged down in Eritrea if the TPLF and Fano can pose a serious threat to ENDF supply lines and major urban centers, so he's likely to wait a bit until the ENDF can consolidate some control over these areas. But all that rests on several assumptions and variables related to how Ethiopian planners gauge the threat TPLF/Fano pose and how quickly the ENDF could blitzkrieg Asmara, the latter of which is dependent on how they assess Ethiopian air/drone superiority and potential external assistance to Eritrea [Egypt in particular]. My forecast on Ethiopia and Eritrea, with analysis of several courses of action (border war, Assab seizure, full-scale invasion/regime change) over the short, medium, and long term.⬇️