@DerekScissors1

Resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Chief economist, China Beige Book

Joined June 2014
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41Media
Ways China’s Latest GDP Claim Is . . . Odd aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Ways China’s Latest GDP Claim Is . . . Odd

The National Bureau of Statistics today announced China’s real GDP growth at 4.5 percent for the third quarter and 4.6 percent for the first three quarters, both year-over-year changes. We don’t have...

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China’s Nonsense on Investing Overseas aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

China’s Nonsense on Investing Overseas

It’s one thing for the Ministry of Commerce to say they can find $213 billion that left the Chinese mainland in 2025, most of which went to Hong Kong. Sure. But no one should think China was a...

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India’s Growth Outperforms, Says India aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

India’s Growth Outperforms, Says India

This is a long-term debate. By the end of the decade, life in India will be clearly better than at the start; the issue is how much. We see the world’s views, but ordinary Indians will be the...

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China Trade: President Trump Is Trapping Himself aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

China Trade: President Trump Is Trapping Himself

The first Trump administration correctly identified the People’s Republic of China as the main trade problem. Not only has the second term been less focused, but China no longer seems to be a...

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aei.org/china-global-investm…

China Global Investment Tracker

The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined since 2005 has hit $2.7 trillion. Verifiable investment recovered from COVID and zero-COVID but has not gone back anywhere close to...

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China’s Outbound Investment Shrugs Off the Iran War. aei.org/research-products/re…

China’s Outbound Investment Shrugs Off the Iran War

The US-Iran war is an obvious obstacle for China’s global investment and construction. Nonetheless, authentic investment—disclosed by participating firms—had a solid performance from January to June.

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The China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT) is the most complete public record of China’s investment and construction globally.
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How Long Has China’s Economy Been This Weak? aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

How Long Has China’s Economy Been This Weak?

China surprised everyone Tuesday night by acknowledging GDP growth well below 5 percent. The official rate is 4.3 percent for the second quarter and 4.7 percent for the first half, to just over $10.1...

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Numbers That Crunch President Trump aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Numbers That Crunch President Trump

President Trump often says we’re the hottest country in the world, seeing trillions in investment. His number keeps rising while the Department of Commerce just restated $19.2 trillion. Most of this...

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We’re Letting China Steal Our Future aei.org/economics/were-letti…

We’re Letting China Steal Our Future

We better hope AI is overrated, that it will turn out not to be vital. If it is vital, then China is again robbing us while we watch, will again roll out decent-to-good systems while spending much...

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India’s Unconvincing Economic Facade aei.org/research-products/re…

India’s Unconvincing Economic Facade

India portrays itself as a, or even the, global growth leader. The rest of the world should recognize that the reliability of India’s economic data is low.

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Recession with Chinese Characteristics aei.org/economics/recession-… (1/4)

Recession with Chinese Characteristics

Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two...

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Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. (3/4)
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Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two years. (4/4)
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The US Takes the Easy Road on China aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

The US Takes the Easy Road on China

President Trump's long-standing chase for deals with China has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later.

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The President’s long-standing chase for China deals has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later.
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A mainstay issue being suspiciously soft-played is pharmaceuticals.
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Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar

Dollar dominance can last for many more decades. The duration, like all economic outcomes, isn’t predetermined by trends but by actions. Actions by others, including China, have to this point...

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