I try to find value in investing. 25yo. Engineer in Operations. Quantum Physicist by training.

Paris, Île-de-France, FRA
Joined March 2016
Carlos Dos Santos retweeted
עוד עדות של בעלת עסק שאיבדה את כל עולמה. פה מדובר באלין לי (במקור הואנג) בת 50. דור שני או שלישי למהגרים מסין. היא דוברת צרפתית מושלמת עם מבטא פריזאי מושלם. את המסעדה הקטנה הזו ברובע העשירי קנתה לפני 7 שנים מיהודי זקן ממוצא אלג׳יראי (בשם ר. חנונה). אלין מספרת שלקראת השעה 14:30 כשהם ראו שהרחוב הופך מסוכן הם הורידו את כל שבכות הברזל ונשארו בפנים. תוך זמן קצר הם שמעו חבטות עזות והשבכות הורמו מכל הכיוונים. הפורעים (שהיו 6 או 7) חבטו בחלונות עד ששברו אותם והיכו אותה עד אבדן הכרה (שימו לב לפנס בעין ימין שלה). היא טוענת שמה שהפתיע אותה זה שהראשון שנכנס לתוך המסעדה היה ילד בן 12 ואחריו חבורת בנות צעירות עם שקי קניות. הם שדדו כל מה שאפשר היה לשדוד, שברו את הכל והציתו.
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Carlos Dos Santos retweeted
J’ai entendu dire que la France était finie, qu’il était trop tard pour la sauver. Mais la France est toujours aussi belle, enviable même. Sa grandeur n’a pas disparu, elle ne demande qu’à renaître. Nous avons surmonté en un an un problème cent fois plus grave, sans avoir les moyens dont dispose la France. La France pourrait y arriver en une semaine.
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$SSBP proving the playbook 🤞🏻 Challenge my thoughts from August here: theregnumclub.substack.com/p…
$SSBP 3rd quarter & 9 mo.'s eps. $.67 vs. $.29, 9 mo.'s $1.71 vs. $.69 otcmarkets.com/stock/SSBP/ne…
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$MIAX Sep26 report was not flying colors, but isn’t market overdoing it a bit? I think Oct might be similar, comps from last year are hard with a boost from the IPO? YTD look more than ok IMHO. @ragingbullcap any thoughts?
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So fruitful to read these kind of interactions! I barely know $EVC appart from reading Dylan’s letter, but the pushbacks, the different perceptions of uncertainty/risk… masterclass for vicarious learning. Thank you guys!
Some thoughts on $EVC from someone who's been on the sidelines for a long time. I have been following EVC since I discovered it through @Uzocapital and @ragingbullcap , and I've followed the coverage by @david_katunaric. All of them have made very nice profits on this, and it was quite a big mistake on my part not getting on the bus when this was in the 2s. Nonetheless, I've been looking at a possible second entry point on EVC, and I came to the following conclusions: Whale spending is creating big operating leverage, and if it went to 0 we would probably be at $30–40m in operating income (this might be too low, because investments in the platform go through opex instead of being capitalized). However, if you assume that, you suddenly understand the current valuation much better. The question then becomes clear: how much is the whale worth, and how much can the core business grow? I would argue the whale question does not matter much long term. It's just short-term optics that will make this super volatile depending on that customer's spending. But a HK gaming business, with what is probably very cyclical spending that can swing a lot, is worth a very low P/E. I would argue it's not even worth a P/E, as it's so unpredictable, so you might just model it as extra FCF that the company generates as that customer comes and goes. The core question then is: how much can they grow in a diversified way? If they can grow gross profit at a high double-digit rate, operating leverage appears and the valuation is cheap again, but as a high-P/E diversified business, not on whale profits. I think that's how we should think about valuation. My take is that the really massive opportunity will appear when the whale surprises to the downside and you can buy the growing, high-P/E business while nobody cares about it. That said, I think the current price is also quite attractive. But nobody fucking nows what is happening with that client other than management, and probably management does not have multi quarter visibility so quite risky to have an investment view based on that factor. We'll see what happens in Q3. I might write something a bit more extensive on the name following this angle. Let me know, guys, does this make sense or not?
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Dylan covers $MIAX really well in his write-up. I started a tracking position today. Upside optionality. GoodCo/BadCo where BadCo is not bad per se, but it is still in its infancy. Looks compelling IMHO :) Larry Goldstein, in his April 06 letter already laid it out for us... 🤞🏻
$MIAX What an incredible gift getting one last shot below $40 was last month - Massive sequential growth from Q1: Revenue +11% EBITDA + 16.5% to $77m at 57% margin; - Options segment standalone segment EBITDA +16% sequential with 78% margin. Pretty remarkable without any index products. - Cash up to $660m from $555 end of Q1 - Paying a low teens EBITDA multiple for a mature scaled exchange business and getting insane optionality (futures monetization, BBG products, Rothera, perps(?) etc.) tossed in for nothing.
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$SSBP Good short-term jump. Keep in mind is highly illiquid and there are risks to monitor. I also see asymmetrical upside left. Go check the write-up: theregnumclub.substack.com/p… Beginner’s luck, I guess. Having fun doing the process too. God bless 🙏🏻
New high: $FDSB WBHC -$1,122.01 to $377.99 on 2, $377.99/100K $SSBP +$4.40 to $23 on 48K, $23/24.50
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Carlos Dos Santos retweeted
New high: $FDSB WBHC -$1,122.01 to $377.99 on 2, $377.99/100K $SSBP +$4.40 to $23 on 48K, $23/24.50
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SSB Bancorp and its new FinTech program can give us a good run. To track closely though. I believe there is asymmetrical upside :) Link: substack.com/@charles289/not…
Added 73 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1): @AboveAvgOdds(holding updates) - $FTAI, $ASTS, $NBIS, $NTDOY @PhilippHaas_ir - $6060.HK @_charles289 - $SSBP @CDNValueInvestr - $NXLV.V @douglaskimkorea - $115310.KQ (overview) @Petty__Cash (earnings) - $XLY.TO, $TOT.TO
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Added 73 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1): @AboveAvgOdds(holding updates) - $FTAI, $ASTS, $NBIS, $NTDOY @PhilippHaas_ir - $6060.HK @_charles289 - $SSBP @CDNValueInvestr - $NXLV.V @douglaskimkorea - $115310.KQ (overview) @Petty__Cash (earnings) - $XLY.TO, $TOT.TO
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A good one! Take home: “investing is about doing a ton of research and a ton of reading, and then not doing a whole lot until the right opportunity comes and that you are comfortable with”.
I did a podcast with MicroCapClub. Check it out.
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Carlos Dos Santos retweeted
Now AI can tell you that it is human produced. Where is Gödel when you need him?
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Catch-up: $SMN.AX FY26. Avionics showing good growth, high demand in audio systems and radios. Bottom line a bit lower than anticipated (maybe higher R&D cost?), but the thesis remains intact. CVM development should kick in by late 2026. 👀 marketopen.com.au/structural…
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Published my second write-up for The Regnum Club on $SSBP. An OTC thrift, first-step conversion, with a recently launched FinTech program acting as a Toll Bridge on others' success. EPS are inflecting up, and I expect $2.23 in FY26. Link below🙇🏻‍♂️
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You will find my toughts here: theregnumclub.substack.com/p… Please, comment your thoughts and challenge the thesis! Best, Carlos :)
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$SMN.AX Right under our nose! Good recap :)
Amazing earnings last Friday for $SMN.AX. Incredible work from Rick Freeman in considerably improving the business while waiting for the FAA approval on the CVM sensors.
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Added 71 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2): @LuisVSanchez777 (fund letter) - $9435.T, $VISN @whirlybard - $LODE (update) @dipinvest - $SEM.LS @_charles289 - $SMN.AX @stonkmetal - $AMS.MC (overview) @DutchInvestors - $MC.PA (earnings) @StableBread - $LAES (pass)
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Carlos Dos Santos retweeted
When you write longer you must go disproportionately deeper.
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Has anyone else had issues with Trading Permissions for US penny stocks on @IBKR? Their customer support isn't the best either... way too slow.
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Published my first thesis for The Regnum Club on $SMN.AX. Classic GoodCo/NormalCo inflection story. Business operations are shifting in the right direction, yet it's still priced at 8x normalized EBITDA. I expect 70%+ over the next 2-3Y as the market catches on. Link below🙇🏻‍♂️
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Check the write-up here: theregnumclub.substack.com/p… Looking forward to having my thesis challenged. Let me know where I'm wrong!
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