Weaponised nerd. Good trouble. Always learning. Normal caveats apply.
Joined November 2017
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Concerto retweeted
Greywolf just proved what the OPFOR has been showing for years.
Combined Resolve 26-07, Hohenfels. 3rd ABCT, 1st Cav vs the Warrior Battalion OPFOR plus Ukraine's 412th "Nemesis" unmanned systems regiment.
First three days: roughly 70% of the brigade's casualties came from enemy drones. By the end of day 3: under 30%. The enemy didn't let up. In the authors' words, "Greywolf changed how it fought."
𝗠𝗜𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗔𝗡𝗗
700+ drones from platoon to brigade overwhelmed a single collection manager and the doctrinal collection matrices. So the brigade quit controlling every sensor. Task, purpose, PIR, the HPT list, and trust. 3-504 ran "like a cavalry squadron."
That's the Blackhorse model. We beat rotational units roughly 3:1 at 40% strength on trust and reps, not kit. You can't jam commander's intent.
𝗗𝗘𝗣𝗧𝗛
They flipped targeting from deep-to-close to close-to-deep and put the CFL in front of the cav squadron. Drone units had free rein forward of it, by priority.
On the OPFOR side, we got twice the range from the same drones through reps. Range is a training outcome.
𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗩𝗜𝗩𝗔𝗕𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗬
The enemy initiated drone contact 750+ times. Static C-UAS couldn't protect moving formations. Roughly 60% of the brigade C-UAS fight was fieldcraft and battle drills. Sustainment took twice as long as planned because the enemy hunted it. The main CP never had a full picture of the drones in flight.
Within hours of every rotation, we pinpointed the CPs. The geometry already voted.
𝗣𝗢𝗪𝗘𝗥 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗞𝗘
High-payoff target guidance in find-fix-finish terms. Hunt the hunters: enemy ground control stations. Hold munitions for the decisive point. Intent and target lists set before the fight, executed at the edge. No 17 approvals.
Result: two simultaneous breaches 6 km apart. The enemy couldn't tell the main effort and failed to stop either one.
Hard truth: we don't have the luxury of time.
The authors call strike troops and armored strike platoons an intermediate home for drones "while ABCTs transform." Good. But a DOTMLPF cycle measured in years will not keep pace with an enemy that adapts in weeks. Greywolf adapted in three days, in training, because the OPFOR made it hurt.
Every CTC rotation needs honest reps and a reset period to quickly adapt. An OPFOR that's bigger, joint, and free to win. That's my Agincourt OPFOR proposal: the services training together honestly, not protecting turf.
@SecArmy, this is the speed the fight demands. Leaders must lead at this speed, are you? #USArmy @usf_army
Excellent training by Greywolf at Combined Resolve. Clear themes:
1. True mission command is non-negotiable on this battlefield.
2. Power down strike authority. Intent and HPT criteria drive it.
3. Intel and drone overload is real. Train for it.
#USArmy
armyupress.army.mil/Journals…
Concerto retweeted
Russian significantly increases EW direction in their army. Would be interesting to see these kind of changes in NATO countries.
In particular, the plan provides for the creation of a separate EW battalion within the combined-arms army from 01.09.2026, and for the reorganization of EW companies into EW battalions within separate motor rifle brigades from 01.12.2026. As a result of the reorganization, the strength of the EW unit in a separate motor rifle brigade increases from 83 to 151 personnel, and the number of officers from 8 to 18.
The EW battalion will consist of a command element, a staff, a command post, an EW company, a radio jamming company, a command platoon, and a support platoon. The planned armament includes the RP-377UV, RB-504P, RB-338A, R-330Zh and R934B systems, command-and-control vehicles (shelters), and satellite and secure communications equipment.
This points to the adversary’s systematic buildup of EW capabilities at the tactical and operational-tactical levels, primarily to counter UAS, suppress control channels, and jam VHF radio communications.
Concerto retweeted
Good job by @FRHoffmann1 here tackling the issue of U.S. Space-Based Ballistic Missile Early Warning and Ukraine. missilematters.substack.com/…
Concerto retweeted
Short time-lapse of part of this morning’s first pass of ICEYE-X36 (59103) and COSMOS 2612 (68762) over South America under partly cloudy skies.
Concerto retweeted
I spent the last month obsessed with finding colors that can't be displayed on a conventional screen. This is what I found. moultano.wordpress.com/2026/…
Concerto retweeted
"China is running the most systematic effort by any outside power to convert the Ukraine war’s lessons into military advantage, absorbing the errors of both sides. Chinese analysts are explicit about the value of Russia’s war against Ukraine," write @csis_ai's Kate Bondar and Lilly Min-Chen Lee.
Read: bit.ly/4iaD66n
Concerto retweeted
1/6
Short🧵with resources.
Battle of Marawi, Philippines (23 May-23 October 2017)
I find this particular urban battle endlessly fascinating. There are not a lot of resources on it, but the few that have been produced are very good. Some (but not all) are listed below.
Concerto retweeted
NOW AVAILABLE!
"War Without Footprints: Plausible Deniability and the Future of Proxy Warfare" by Dr. Andrew L. Peek, Director of the Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
"Andrew Peek has served his country with distinction as an army officer, diplomat, and senior NSC official ... His book takes you behind the scenes of the most critical negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war. It also exposes Putin's strategy of using proxy forces to reclaim the Russian Empire. This book is a must-read for any student of war and diplomacy." —Robert C. O'Brien, 27th United States National Security Advisor
cambriapress.com/WarWithoutF…
Concerto retweeted
"Unmanned systems alone cannot take a heavily fortified position; yet in the Ukrainian battlefield of 2026, it is not possible to accomplish that task without them." bit.ly/4rbX1pk
Concerto retweeted
Sociologist Richard Sennett wrote a wonderful book about the value of hand craftsmanship in his 2008 book The Craftsman. He traces the long history of why people have valued handmade goods for hundreds of years, even through periods of major technological or industrial advancement, and weaves together an engaging intellectual history involving figures like Aristotle and John Ruskin.
One of the book’s recurring themes is the value of imperfection. Sennett notes that the authors of the Encyclopédie praised the “character” of handmade goods, such as the slightly irregular bubbles in hand-blown glass bottles. He connects this idea to Voltaire, who warned us of the relentless pursuit of perfection. If we learned to embrace these imperfections, Sennett suggests, perhaps we would develop more realistic expectations about life.
This creates an interesting tension at the heart of craftsmanship. A good craftsperson strives to make something as well as they possibly can, yet must ultimately accept that perfection is unattainable because they are imperfect, like all human creatures. Toward the end of the book, Sennett discusses craftsmanship in religious terms. In the Judeo-Christian tradition, he notes, excessive pride is a sin because it risks putting the self in God's place. In this sense, the craftsperson embodies both aspiration and humility.
In Sennett's framing, craftsmanship is not necessarily about whether a machine can replicate the results, but about a human's role in production and what that process can teach us about ourselves. It's not just about materiality, but also spirituality.
In this era of artificial intelligence, it is becoming urgent to distinguish human art from what machines produce. There is an ontological difference, even before an aesthetic one, between art and what a machine can generate through statistical calculation based on millions of images created by others. Algorithms lack the spark of humanity. For this reason, the Church wishes to renew an alliance with artists and cultural institutions to safeguard our humanity.
Concerto retweeted
Drone Warfare on the Front Foot: For a Stronger Defense, Play Offense mwi.westpoint.edu/drone-warf…
Concerto retweeted
The WSJ piece on Robert Brovdi’s command bunker is worth reading. Not for the aesthetics, though the NASA-meets-Prymachenko description is vivid.
It is worth reading for what it quantifies about how Ukraine is actually fighting.
The alarm-clock device on his desk is the detail that should stick. When the interview began, it showed 302 Russians killed that day.
By the time it ended, 343, a commander tracking attrition in real time. His unit has lost 79 people since the full invasion.
It calculates its revenge at 656 enemy casualties per fallen Ukrainian.
The mechanism behind that ratio is the real story. Delta integrates every drone, sensor, and fire platform into one network.
Pilots mark targets on the map. Neighboring units get alerts, and they react like drivers accepting a ride.
Brovdi sets the rules but delegates 90 percent of combat decisions. Moscow still uses a Soviet command model, whose opposite this is: initiative is punished and lies travel upward.
Russia has more people and more production capacity. Ukraine has faster decision loops, civilian talent injected into the military, and 10 to 12 terabytes of video per day feeding a closed AI system.
One side is optimizing for mass. The other is optimizing for speed and precision.
The Kremlin has put a 20 million dollar bounty on Brovdi through criminal networks. They fear the model they're pointing to.
Concerto retweeted
U.S. Marine Raider wearing PLA(Chinese) Army Type 07 desert camo, 2022.
Photo source: Aft3rAff3ct
Concerto retweeted
“Dronophobia”: Ukraine’s drone war and a new pattern of trauma — Le Monde
Ukrainian military psychiatrist Serhii Andriichenko has used the term “dronophobia” (or drone-related anxiety) for a pattern of persistent fear linked to unmanned aerial vehicles. He told Le Monde that patients with intense drone-related anxiety began appearing around 2023, often without physical wounds but needing psychological care.
The constant presence of drones — their hum, the risk of sudden strikes, and the feeling of being helpless against a visible, hovering threat — can produce obsessive anxiety, panic, hypervigilance, exhaustion, and a lasting sense of danger. Symptoms often resemble PTSD or adjustment disorder and can continue far from the front, including in cities.
Triggers are not only an actual drone or explosion. Ordinary mechanical sounds (scooters, lawnmowers, air conditioners) and even silence can recreate the alertness learned under fire.
Andriichenko and colleagues, including Ukrainian and American researchers, are studying the phenomenon. It is not a separately recognized diagnosis in the ICD; he has described the label as imperfect and closer to a specific form of trauma-related anxiety mixed with classic PTSD.
Source: Le Monde
Concerto retweeted
Operation Vivaldi near Lyman shows, for the first time on this scale, how extensively ground robots can be integrated into an offensive: clearing mines, laying minefields, supplying infantry, evacuating casualties and even being flown behind Russian lines.
Now, the 3rd Army Corps has shown robots armed with twin Bullspike launchers firing into Russian shelters before driving inside and detonating.
Concerto retweeted
A version for our foreign friends. Prepare for the inevitable war the right way:
telegra.ph/From-CASEVAC-to-U…
via @1MedArmy
