Bitcoin, $MSTR, Chemical Engineer. Seeker of sun, beaches, & tropical locations.
MSTR
Joined March 2021
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- Followers1.8K
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Strategy Dude retweeted
$BTC AT $82K: STATISTICAL MODEL SHOWS $131K MEDIAN SCENARIO BY YEAR-END 2026
I analyzed 5,937 daily Bitcoin closes using a mathematical trend-and-cycle model.
Current modeled levels:
Q25: $92K (+12%)
Q50: $108K (+32%)
Q75: $133K (+62%)
Year-end 2026 scenarios (approx.):
Q25: $105K (+28%)
Q50: $131K (+60%)
Q75: $168K (+105%)
Bitcoin is trading below its lowest historical model quartile.
The bullish case: A return toward the modeled median offers substantial upside without requiring a new all-time high today.
Strategy Dude retweeted
Overlay Bitcoin's 2022 bottom with the June 2026 bottom and they're basically TWINNING 👯
- - -
We're sitting right about where Bitcoin was in late February 2023. That spot led to one last shakeout and then a real breakout.
It's only a rhyme, but it's a hard one to ignore, people 🤷♂️
Strategy Dude retweeted
I support buybacks too.
However, given STRC is still not at par, against expectations, I suggest we temporarily discontinue promotion of Strive.
Continuing promotion while STRC is not at par is tantamount to prioritising Strive ahead of restoration of STRC to par.
I am still bullish on @Strategy, $MSTR, but it’s also prudent to admit that the dilutive resistant $BTC acquisition engine of issuing preferred stocks to acquire bitcoin has been stalled for the better part of this year. I will share some math soon which presents a rather strong upside still for $MSTR. Unfortunately, managements actions to return $STRC to par have been helpful but not enough to kick start the engine again.
Another $193.1M of $STRC was repurchased last week. Less preferred outstanding can help $MSTR’s residual value, but $447M in flexible cash means discipline matters. Most importantly, the board approved increasing its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion, with $1.16 billion remaining available.
Strategy Dude retweeted
Make sure to get into MSTR, before:
-> Investmentgrade Credit rating
-> Institutions buy STRC in a big way
-> Strategy is in the Top 10 Companies
Might happen faster than you think!
In its Oct. 16 filing, Strategy conditionally declared $1/share of $STRC dividends for November across daily record dates—still 12% annualized. Oct. 28 vote pending.
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A is the only suitable analog we have to $MSTR.
Balance sheet focused, treasury giants. @saylor will eventually eclipse the Oracle of Omaha to create a public company with the largest treasury.
Hey @saylor Berkshire Hathaway closed Oct 16 at $798,000 for Class A and $532 for Class B. The A shares have never been split. The B shares are the liquid trading vehicle. One A converts one-way into 1,500 B shares; B cannot convert back. Voting is disproportionately concentrated in A.
Strategy can do the same with three classes.
Leave existing Class A (the public MSTR shares) static. No further issuance. No splits. One-way conversion only into the new "C"class.
Leave existing Class B (the super-voting shares) completely untouched.
Create a new Class C at 1/5 to 1/10 the economic claim of Class A. All future ATMs, employee equity, and capital raises happen only in Class C. When Class C runs up, split only Class C.
Class A becomes the scarce, sticky instrument that long-term holders can keep forever. Class C absorbs the trading, the options market, and any future dilution. The precedent is Berkshire. The difference is that one class is permanently protected from further share-count inflation while the other is designed to be split and issued as needed. grainofsaltsf.com/analysis/b…
@BritishHodl $MSTR @phongle
Strategy Dude retweeted
Hey @saylor Berkshire Hathaway closed Oct 16 at $798,000 for Class A and $532 for Class B. The A shares have never been split. The B shares are the liquid trading vehicle. One A converts one-way into 1,500 B shares; B cannot convert back. Voting is disproportionately concentrated in A.
Strategy can do the same with three classes.
Leave existing Class A (the public MSTR shares) static. No further issuance. No splits. One-way conversion only into the new "C"class.
Leave existing Class B (the super-voting shares) completely untouched.
Create a new Class C at 1/5 to 1/10 the economic claim of Class A. All future ATMs, employee equity, and capital raises happen only in Class C. When Class C runs up, split only Class C.
Class A becomes the scarce, sticky instrument that long-term holders can keep forever. Class C absorbs the trading, the options market, and any future dilution. The precedent is Berkshire. The difference is that one class is permanently protected from further share-count inflation while the other is designed to be split and issued as needed. grainofsaltsf.com/analysis/b…
@BritishHodl $MSTR @phongle
Strategy Dude retweeted
$MSTR alert: DOWN 8% on potential EXCLUSION from indexes.
Bitcoin is only down 1%.
The reason:
MSCI approved rules proposed in August that could remove the Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company from indexes.
The final list of affected firms will be available on November 11, with the changes scheduled to be implemented at the close of November 30.
/Cap /MSTR
At the moment, you can own 1 bitcoin:native of price exposure for an 11% discount through buying 533 shares of $MSTR.
This is reminiscent of late 2022. This will not last forever…plan accordingly. NFA
Strategy Dude retweeted
$MSTR
My two cents:
1. Bitcoin goes to $1M whether MSCI or any other institution classifies it as capital or not.
2. Strategy becomes the world’s most valuable company whether the industry considers it an operating company or not.
We move forward.
Mission: Strategy.
$MSTR price action is a reflection of MSCI indexing news. Nothing has changed with the thesis. This is what amplified volatility looks like. Sit tight and keep accumulating.
Ultra-conservative price target at 1.0x NET mNAV of $766/fully diluted share in 5 years…Oct. 2031.
BTC price floor of $423k following a bubble free power log price floor model.
$MSTR to 5.5x, or 40% CAGR…floor price model.
