@TheBitcoinLayer
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Bitcoin & Global Macro Research | Join TBL Pro today: https://nitter.cf/t.co/k95FWUusXj | Read Bitcoin Age by Nik Bhatia: https://nitter.cf/t.co/s1Cmn9UP5C
Los Angeles
Joined May 2022
- Tweets4.4K
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🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Bond Meltdown Ends In A Global Money Print
Nik on why $350 trillion of debt against $120 trillion of global GDP can never be repaid in today's dollars, why the US print comes from commercial banks rather than the Fed, and why Europe prints first.
The Bond Meltdown Ends In A Global Money Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Central Banks Have Lost Control with James Van Straten
@BTCJVS on the Bank of England reversing course on gilt sales, why the UK housing market has gone no bid as mortgages reset, and why AI may be the most deflationary force he has ever seen.
Bitcoin cleared $83,000 and the bear market looks dead. The bigger story is what comes next: bitcoin is front-running a money creation event. Watch Q4 repo and bond markets for the moment somebody cannot roll their debt. That is where the printing starts.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Bear Market Is Over
Nik on bitcoin blasting through $82,700 to $87,000, the short squeeze that ripped $1,500 out of the market in 100 seconds, and why the four-year cycle crowd got it wrong all year.
The Bear Market Is Over
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
@StuartLackey1 and @thebitcoinyogi on why $4 trillion of the $5 trillion the government collects goes to health spending, why the Medicare trust fund runs out in 2032, and how to hold real bitcoin in an HSA.
Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare.
Bitcoin's rally has been losing momentum, with ETF flows turning to outflows, the Coinbase premium rolling over, and price slipping back into the $72,000 to $78,000 volume gap that has defined this bear range, closing at $75,786 on September 15.
The signal worth watching is that after a multi-week capitulation, the trend flip up that just triggered has never once been followed by a lower low, and a recovering hashrate suggests capital may be returning.
Johan Bergman (@johanmbergman) walks through the demand picture, the profit-taking data, and what it would take for $82,000 to finally break.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
What Happens If The Fed Hikes Tomorrow
Nik on the liquidity contraction behind bitcoin losing its trend line, why crude oil above $106 a barrel is driving global yields higher, and why he thinks the crisis response comes from Europe.
Markets are pricing a Fed hike after this week's CPI print, though 29 percentage points of the supercore jump came from a single line, wireless phone service prices.
A hike does little against phone bills or an oil supply shock, and it risks adding pressure to a labor market that is already soft.
TBL's base case for next week, and the four paths the Fed can take, are in this week's letter.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
@AugustineCarrB
We got a lot of messages this morning about TBL Pulse being down. The issue is resolved, and we're back up and running. Thank you for your patience.
Everything is live again here:
thebitcoinlayer.com/
TBL's Liquidity Indicator has flagged an unconfirmed Red Dot 🔴, a possible local Liquidity peak detected on September 3rd, and it now sits right in the middle of its 12 to 14 day confirmation window with a CPI print still to come this week.
With DXY bouncing off a 15-year support line and US rates still climbing, Augustine Carrasco (@AugustineCarrB) walks through whether this signal is worth trusting and when confirmation should land.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
Bitcoin has climbed back into an uptrend, but the leverage and enthusiasm that come with a real bull market still aren't there.
Hedge funds have cut their leveraged bitcoin positions from 110,000 coins at the end of 2024 to just 38,000 today, and traders are barely paying a premium to bet on higher prices, which is the hallmark of an early and quiet uptrend rather than a crowded one. The derivatives also point to a specific price level that would signal the real bull market has begun.
@JohanMBergman lays out that level, and what the options market is saying underneath it, in this week's letter.
Read here on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Most Important Inflation Report Of The Year
Nik on why this week's CPI print decides the September Fed meeting, how Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing, and why he thinks the Fed holds even with hikes priced in.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
One Level Decides Bitcoin's Bull Market
Nik on the jobs report pushing the two-year yield toward hike territory, why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will force front-end rates lower anyway, and the level bitcoin has to close above.
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Something Just Broke the Bond Market
Nik on why government bond yields are rising from the US to Japan to the UK, why Warsh told the G20 the savings glut is reversing into an investment surge, and which countries actually have to worry.
In 1951, the Treasury-Fed Accord ended wartime yield caps and handed the Fed its independence. Our latest research revisits that turning point against today's fiscal-monetary standoff, and lays out the case for Pax Silica.
Read it on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Just Failed Three Times
Nik on the two-year yield closing in on the level that locks in a rate hike, why the flattening curve is pricing growth out of the economy, and bitcoin failing three times at $81,000 this week.
Bitcoin's trend just flipped up for the first time since September 2025. @JohanMBergman breaks down what changed across price, momentum, and positioning, and what it takes for this to become more than a bear market bounce.
Read it on Pulse: thebitcoinlayer.com/research…
🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
You've Been Drinking Fiat Wine (And You Feel It)
@BenJustman on the 73 ingredients winemakers can add without listing them, why a third of his customers pay in bitcoin, why he's up all night fighting bears, and why Bessent went to financial war.
You've Been Drinking Fiat Wine (And You Feel It) with Ben Justman
In this episode, Nik welcomes Ben Justman, founder of Peony Lane Wine in Paonia, Colorado, the highest wine region in North America.