Airbnb is dead. Well it’s not dead but it’s going to be dying soon. The Bear case for Airbnb. I’ve been bullish on Airbnb as a company for many years. But my outlook on the business changed this week. Let me tell you why. In 2012 I purchased my first Airbnb property. Over the years that one property has turned into a portfolio of high-end Airbnb’s that generates almost $1M a month in rental income. Using ai agents for the first time this week has completely changed my outlook on the company. Airbnb is facing an existential threat that most of the market is completely missing. With Airbnb pushing its mandatory host-side commission to 15.5%, the middleman tax has never been higher. Enter AI agents. (Hark, Dot, Muse, Grok Bot, etc) Right now, booking a vacation rental requires navigating a siloed app and paying heavy platform tolls. But your AI agent won't care about Airbnb's brand wall. When you know the property you want to book and you ask it “what’s the cheapest way to book the property” it will query property management system APIs directly, find the exact same home, and execute a direct booking that saves everyone 15%. Airbnb's entire model relies on holding supply captive behind a closed interface. When AI agents can autonomously search, verify reviews, negotiate terms, and book direct with property operators, that walled garden turns into a leaking pipe. The middleman tax's days are numbered. I’m predicting that Airbnb’s growth rate will slow down significantly in the next 24 to 36 months. And within 5 years they will be seeing negative growth. The same can be said for most other online marketplaces that don’t have unique inventory that can only be booked directly on their platform and nowhere else.