B.S/PhD in Biology Former analyst at biotech-specialist HF Citizen of Graham and Doddsville VIC member Not investment advice, my opinions only
Joined April 2024
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Vulpes Bio retweeted
Market isn’t close to getting $NKTR right.
$GALD earnings this morning showing Nemluvio had a nearly $200M quarter.
They doubled their peak projection from “over $2 billion” to “over $4 billion.”
>$4B peak sales. MASSIVE drug.
This is with a drug that has ***horrible*** efficacy in atopic dermatitis and has launched in a small 2nd indication (prurigo nodularis) against the most difficult competition in dermatology -> Dupixent. On top of that, prurigo nodularis is a much smaller patient population than $NKTR’s alopecia areata population is.
The $NKTR bears would historically say “oh well all those Nemluvio sales are just prurigo nodularis sales, they can’t penetrate atopic derm”.
For the first time, $GALD just confirmed that atopic derm sales are roughly equal to PN sales….they’re *already* claiming an 8% penetration into new biologic starts in atopic derm…which is going to be a >$40B market….with a very shitty drug…
Hello???
This clearly demonstrates the massive demand that there is for ***NON-IL4/13*** drugs with unique MoAs in atopic derm.
$NKTR’s Rezpeg has a unique MoA, looks *far* more effective, and is likely to have a more favorable Q3M dosing interval (versus Q4W for Nemluvio).
*And* Rezpeg’s secondary indication (AA) is multiple times larger than Nemluvio’s PN market *and* the AA market has only dangerous JAK inhibitor drugs as competition….whereas Nemluvio is having to compete in PN against the dermatology GOAT drug (Dupixent).
IDK why it is so hard for the market to see $NKTR’s current valuation is absolutely insane. I understand that people have written off the AA opportunity. They are wrong.
OX40 is dead, crappy old Nemluvio is launching like a rocket, and there’s no other unique MoA left to hit the market before Rezpeg. Wake up!!!
Vulpes Bio retweeted
TRUMP: I’m sorry Zohran, but we can’t make exceptions for illegal immigration.
MAMDANI: *shows picture*
TRUMP: She can stay.
Columbia student detained by ICE will be released after Mamdani meeting with President Trump, mayor says trib.al/2sq32oT
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Very bullish news for $PESI - Yesterday, the DOE announced that it is advancing a permit to expand the production of the Hanford plant by 20% per year. In order to accomplish this, the permit will shift a portion of the secondary waste from being vitrified in glass to being solidified in grout locally.
This is positive for PESI in two ways. Firstly, PESI will receive 20% more waste, and thus 20% more revenue, from the Hanford plant per year. Secondly, PESI will almost certainly be the local offsite grouting provider for the waste that is being shifted from vitrification to grouting.
Overall, I expect this change to increase PESI's annual revenue from the Hanford plant by 30%+ per year! By my calcs, the incremental earnings from this change is worth >$5 per share of value for PESI shareholders, but so far, the market has not priced this in.
I have added to my position on the back of this news. As always, DYOD.
hanford.gov/c.cfm/media/atta…
Vulpes Bio retweeted
I need you all to help @A_May_MD ratio Hims Comms
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Nice rebound in $PESI over the past few days. Based on this article, seems there is a lot of opposition to shipping low activity waste across state lines, which bodes well for PESI's chances of winning all or most of the additional grouting work at 200 West.
tri-cityherald.com/news/loca…
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Great outcome. Money that flows back to funds will be reinvested in the next generation of biotechs and new medicines. cnbc.com/2025/11/08/metsera-… Top shareholders of Metsera & potential payout:
ALT $XBI $IBB $BBC $PFE $NOVO $MTSR
Vulpes Bio retweeted
“Our puts will expire worthless today if the market doesn’t come down. Threatening China is the best way to do it.”
Vulpes Bio retweeted
$pepg if it weren't for the 5% filing requirement, I'd have bought considerably more of this $58M MC biotech addressing DM1.
There are 2 main strategies for DM1 disease modification:
1) reduce DMPK1: e.g. $rna $srpt $dyn...
2) disrupt DMPK1 RNA structure: Vertex aaand... $pepg
$RNA has to be considered the leader right now, but $pepg 28 day CASI score the best of them all.
Mechanistic differentiation means that eventual clinical benefit could be very differentiated from knockdown; potential for combo Rx, too.
So if you beleve in CASI as a predictor of clinical benefit...
Upcoming WMS25 data critical. Could be a 5-10x over next month, but maybe not. Holding position through data.
Vulpes Bio retweeted
@Vulpescap Resurfacing this image from a few years ago.
$GOSS traded at 9$ at the time. They've given away half the economics to chiesi, but would be at phase 3. Assuming the same upside as the Base case/2 = 7$ price and 1.7B market cap.
Typical rule for me is at the time of Phase 3 readout, valuation is ~1.5X peak sales (for one indication). Sotatercept is projected to peak > 3B in sales in PAH (~1.5 * 3 / 2 = ~2). Currently GOSS trades at $500M Market Cap.
xitter.cf/Vulpescap/status/19508…
$GOSS nice run up lately.
Reminder that positive TPIP data, $INSM added $5.75B of market cap on the day of. On a fully diluted basis, that would be $17/share for $GOSS
Sharing a sensitivity analysis that predicts Ph3 6MWD delta based on performance in FC II pts.
Recall that in Ph2 (which hit on PVR), 6MWD delta was weak (+6.5m) overall but strong (+37m) in FC III pts. FC II delta was an imputed -15.7m... strange because all of the hemodynamic endpoints moved in the same favorable direction in both groups.
This time around, the proportion of FC III pts is much higher than it was in Ph2 (74% vs. 42%).
A combo of:
1) more FC III patients
2) sicker FC II patients in Ph3 than Ph2 (6MWD eligibility ceiling changed from 550m to 450m)
3) less noise (greater n)
should ameliorate the oddly negative 6MWD result for FC II patients.
If we assume zero delta on 6MWD in FC II (despite having seen improvement on hemodynamic markers prior), and the same 37m delta FC III, overall delta would be 27.3m.
If we assume a +15m delta in FC II, overall delta would be 31.5m.
Even if we assume the same -15.7m delta in FC II, overall delta is 23.7m (because there are less of them).
Management has said in the past that they are hoping to see anything above 20m.
More recent comments suggest 30m is meaningful.
Note that if 6MWD delta comes in near but under 30m, noise around the mean will imply some proportion of patients do quite well, and there is a pre-specified composite endpoint for the proportion of patients who "do quite well" (meet a handful of improvement criteria).
Note that Winrevair only works in 1/3 patients and is on track for $1.4B in 2025 sales (growing). Winrevair and seralutinib are likely not competitive with one another since polypharmacy is common in PAH.
As gravy on top, PH-ILD is a larger market... Ph3 initiating this year.
I loaded up on this at $0.90 so am not adding here, but I do think it's attractively priced given the upside and PoS.
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Another positive update today on progress at the Hanford DFLAW plant. According to the PR, the plant is undergoing "some final testing" and is on-track to begin hot commissioning later this year. I'm a bit surprised that $PESI did not rally today on this news.
hanford.gov/c.cfm/media/atta…
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Scott Bessent seeing the US Court of International Trade rule Trump’s tariffs illegal
Vulpes Bio retweeted
The one good thing about Trump's wild policy oscillations is that they enable us to distinguish between his more principled supporters and the mere bootlickers. (The latter are the ones who rationalize each new move, only to be left hanging 12 hours later.)
Vulpes Bio retweeted
Ray Dalio just nailed the problem with social media.
54% of American adults read below a 6th grade reading level yet analyze and opine on everything.
Vulpes Bio retweeted
The business community is giddy with excitement about the @realDonaldTrump administration. I am hearing this from everyone, including from people who didn’t vote for Trump.
Business confidence is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Business leaders are becoming more confident about the country and the economy. This means they will be making more investments in our future which will drive the economy and the stock market, reducing the cost of capital and bolstering confidence further, catalyzing more investment and more growth in a self-reinforcing, virtuous cycle.
Merger and acquisition activity is about to explode as there are an enormous number of deals that have been deferred pending a more favorable regulatory environment for transactions. M&A will drive efficiency, greater profitability and growth. It will also enable the return of capital to investors who will seek to redeploy their profits and proceeds in new investment opportunities.
The DOGE and deregulation will drive government efficiency and make America a vastly better and lower-risk place to do business efficiently and effectively.
I am also hearing about non-US companies that are desperate to immediately create a presence on U.S. soil. They are frightened to be locked out of the most important economy in the world. They will build factories and make new investments here to avoid the risk of tariffs and because they don’t have a better place to invest capital.
China’s economy is in trouble. Europe’s is a mess. The U.S. has now become by far the best country for investment.
Growth is about to explode.