Christopher Ruiz retweeted
"FactorBench: A Portfolio-Aware Benchmark for Automated Factor Mining", arxiv.org/abs/2610.06947
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
There seems to be a lot of this happening online these days. People clipping videos and articles of traders then sensationalizing their stories for engagement.
Like when all legacy and online media earlier this year said that Michael Burry had opened a $1bln market short. He didn't, He bought a Put Option position with defined downside and implied $1bln exposure. If the Options went In The Money (if) he would have had $1bln of NOTIONAL exposure. The headlines worked for the media as it got tons of clicks and attention.
This week it's happened to me with my career background from 19-26 years ago. I'm 47 years old now and im seeing accounts guessing me career numbers from the early 2000's. Certain accounts are clipping our old YouTube videos and then attaching narratives and numbers to them about my early career as a Pro' Trader via X posts, in order to click farm, with assumptions and / or exaggerations attached in order to get attention.
All you have to do is look at my LinkedIn profile to realize that the claims of growing $25mln to $400mln reported as all Profit by these online accounts is not true.
linkedin.com/in/anton-kreil-…
I've NEVER EVER in my life claimed anything like that.
This has all been made up by X accounts due to either genuinely misinterpreting what it actually means or intentionally misinterpreting the numbers and posting them for engagement. Obviosuly it's the latter.
The reference to $25mln and $400mln in my background (see LinkedIn) is the size of the Proprietary trading account capital limits (not P/L) that I was working on at the time. Meaning, the bank gives you and your team that amount directly to work with as a GROSS number, which is a limit of GROSS portfolio exposure i.e. $100mln.., and if you make say $20mln, then the next year they might give you more or they might not. But probably they're not going to give you less unless trading conditions are very tough and the bank is losing in other areas and they have to tighten risk across the board. Back then all traders at IBs ran 2x SEPERATE accounts. Market Making and Prop' - The GROSS exposure limits refer to the Prop' accounts limit.
So when you see $25mln, $100mln and $400mln this is referring to GROSS EXPOSURE limits intentionally put on that area of the trading desk i.e. the Sector team. So $100mln gross exposure limit, managed by 2x guys, one of which was me, was totally normal back then. That doesnt mean $25mln grew to $100mln, then to $400mln - it means that $100mln was the Gross Exposure limit of the Prop' book set by the banks risk commitee / management.
Watching a lot of people comment underneath these posts is especially entertaining and frankly it's gotten a bit ridiculous. The Retail guys replying, to be fair I wouldnt expect them to know the difference. Its obvious when they comment negatively that they haven't got a clue. But, saying that.., all they have to do to check is a few quick reference checks online, espcially on my LinkedIn and then figure it out. But they don't. Hey, thats Retail for you!
The real issue is not the clueless Retail guys. It's the disingenuous guys that try to pass themselves off as "Professional Traders" online to their Retail followers, when they have never worked a day in their life on the Professional side of the industry. They hate guys like me, because they could never and can never be me. They never made it. They've either always been Retail guys posing as Pro's and / or they worked at the lowest level of the industry at some point and even now, they are still too lazy and dumb to do the work. Guys like me just existing in the Retail Trader education space, makes these guys look and feel really stupid. This is why they hate us. So they are always overly keen to try and tarnish reputations like mine to their gullible Retail followers whenever they get a micro chance to do so. These guys comment under the posts that make fake claims and say things like "It's all BS. Anton is fake. It's a scam. I told you blah blah blah" - Like I wrote the post myself. Firstly I don't write the posts. Secondly, the numbers have been exagerrated by the poster and / or taken out of context for clicks and engagement. Third, your response itself only advertises you as somoene who either doesnt know or does know and is being disingenious. Either way it's just super low quality bottom feeder behaviour.
Why is this an issue? .., because these people have many Retail followers who actually believe that these guys are authority figures in the industry and knowledgable. They're not. They're disingenuous morons. Anyone who passes themselves off as a Trading coach / Pro Trader who see's these posts and then replies with attack comments on peoples careers and character without doing 2 minutes of checking anything is by definition just an absolute r3t4rd.
@51bodila and @NoLimitGains - I would appreciate it if you corrected the record and also @51bodila you have permission to stop guessing what my salary / compensation was each year in the early 2000's and / or randomly posting different numbers for A/B testing purposes to see which one gets you more clicks. The numbers you are posting are false and you know that. I would only be impressed by those numbers if they were monthly not annual. Thankyou for your co-operation in this matter.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods.
And the endgame isn't a trade war.
There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades.
It's bold. It's speculative. And whether you buy it or not, the underlying moves are worth paying attention to:
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: 𝗩𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘇𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗮
The U.S. moves on Venezuela's oil, lithium, gold, and rare-earth reserves. Not for regime change — for resource control. China has quietly relied on Venezuelan oil to sidestep sanctions for years. That lifeline gets cut first.
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮
This one's less dramatic but arguably more important. Canada deepens its alignment with Washington — offering diplomatic support, intelligence sharing, and strategic basing access. It's not that Ottawa becomes a puppet. It's that North America starts operating as a single economic and security bloc in a way we haven't seen since WWII. That kind of continental unity sends a message that's hard to ignore.
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯: 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻
With Venezuela compromised, China pivots to Iran for oil. Predictable. That's when the U.S. and Israel escalate — strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, command infrastructure, and oil facilities. China's backup energy source disappears.
𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟰: 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮
Here's where the theory gets really interesting -- and really controversial.
The argument is that a back-channel deal is already taking shape. Russia, increasingly squeezed and looking for off-ramps, begins redirecting energy exports toward Western markets. Out of self-interest, not friendship. In return, Moscow gets energy revenue guarantees and a pathway back to the global trading system. Canada, with its existing Arctic and energy ties, becomes the diplomatic bridge.
The result is a North American–Russian energy alignment that removes China's last major source of leverage.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝗱𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲
BRICS loses its economic foundation. Beijing, cut off from reliable energy and geopolitical allies, is forced to negotiate on American terms, including purchasing U.S. debt at favorable rates. The dollar gets a controlled reset with gold as the backstop, and the global financial system re-centers around Washington.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 + 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿
Energy price spikes and defense spending flood capital into risk assets. Bitcoin pushes past $200K. Then comes the executive orders: a Strategic U.S. Bitcoin Reserve, funded by seized assets and energy windfalls.
But the piece most people are sleeping on is stablecoins. Every USD-pegged stablecoin moving across borders reinforces American financial infrastructure without a single new bank branch. The GENIUS Act laid the regulatory rails. A geopolitical shakeup of this scale would create a demand shock.
Stablecoins don't just survive a reset like this. They become the rails it runs on.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲:
Resource control → energy dominance → geopolitical isolation of China → dollar reset + Bitcoin reserve + stablecoin expansion.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲:
Precision chaos → total energy dominance → China's surrender on U.S. terms → dollar reset + strategic Bitcoin reserve + stablecoin expansion.
American financial supremacy 2.0.
Whether you believe it or not, the pieces are already moving.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
The Chinese foreign minister has been on the phone with his Iranian counterpart.
Who buys more Qatari LNG than anyone else? China.
Who buys more Persian Gulf oil than anyone else? China.
Who buys all -- yes, all -- the Iranian oil? China
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon.
Our position has never wavered and will never waver: the Department of War must have full, unrestricted access to Anthropic’s models for every LAWFUL purpose in defense of the Republic.
Instead, @AnthropicAI and its CEO @DarioAmodei, have chosen duplicity. Cloaked in the sanctimonious rhetoric of “effective altruism,” they have attempted to strong-arm the United States military into submission - a cowardly act of corporate virtue-signaling that places Silicon Valley ideology above American lives.
The Terms of Service of Anthropic’s defective altruism will never outweigh the safety, the readiness, or the lives of American troops on the battlefield.
Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military. That is unacceptable.
As President Trump stated on Truth Social, the Commander-in-Chief and the American people alone will determine the destiny of our armed forces, not unelected tech executives.
Anthropic’s stance is fundamentally incompatible with American principles. Their relationship with the United States Armed Forces and the Federal Government has therefore been permanently altered.
In conjunction with the President's directive for the Federal Government to cease all use of Anthropic's technology, I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk to National Security. Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic. Anthropic will continue to provide the Department of War its services for a period of no more than six months to allow for a seamless transition to a better and more patriotic service.
America’s warfighters will never be held hostage by the ideological whims of Big Tech. This decision is final.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
We are born into a world of slavery.
But the slavery is not of the physical, but of the financial. The mental. The spiritual.
They shove us into little rooms, training us to read and study, becoming good little soldiers for their industrial economy.
The warriors are sent to die in foreign lands, the poets forced to work in cubicles, the philosophers become sycophants.
Logic and reason become qualities of infamy. Propaganda and memorization are the software of the mind.
Like sheep to the slaughter, we are led to live unfulfilling lives, making just enough to survive but never enough to escape.
Trapped within Desert of the Real.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
🚨🌍🇪🇺 "You Must of Lost your Minds"
"Everyone can see you are enemies of Europe & you want to destroy the future for our Children - If we don't defeat you - it will be the end of Europe"
"In France they throw Grenades into Hair Salons, in Germany not a day goes by without someone being murdered by a Knife, in Sweden - you have Bomb attack every day"
'You are seriously criticising America when every day European Cities are turned into a WarZone"
Wow - MEP Milan Mazurek just went absolutely Nuclear on the unelected EU Commies ‼️
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
🚨JD VANCE JUST OBLITERATED GLOBALISM — AND EXPOSED HOW SMALL OUR POLITICIANS REALLY ARE
While Britain is led by careerists who can’t think beyond slogans, JD Vance just dismantled the entire intellectual foundation of globalisation — calmly, methodically, and devastatingly.
He explained what our so-called leaders never understood:
You cannot separate making things from designing things.
When you offshore manufacturing, you don’t just lose jobs —
you lose knowledge, skills, innovation, and eventually sovereignty.
The countries that make things learn how to design them.
They absorb the expertise.
They build the ecosystems.
They overtake you.
And that’s exactly what happened.
Globalisation didn’t lift the West — it hollowed it out.
Then Vance delivered the knockout blow:
Cheap labour isn’t progress.
It’s a drug.
A shortcut that replaces innovation with dependency.
Instead of building better systems, Western elites imported cheaper workers.
Instead of investing in productivity, they chased lower wages.
Instead of strengthening nations, they weakened them.
The result?
• Stagnant productivity
• Collapsing industries
• Hollowed communities
• Lost national purpose
And this isn’t theory — it’s visible everywhere.
From the rust belts of America
to the broken towns of Britain
to the productivity collapse across Europe.
This is the level of thinking real leadership requires.
Not soundbites.
Not Davos slogans.
Not “learn to code”.
But first-principles understanding of power, labour, innovation, and national interest.
Listening to JD Vance speak makes one thing painfully clear:
Our political class isn’t just corrupt.
It’s intellectually bankrupt.
And that — more than anything — is why the West has been losing.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
RE: Fraud in Minnesota
I’m not sure that most Americans understand that in large swathes of humanity, there is no actual concept of “fraud,” particularly fraud against the government. Instead, there is a belief in the virtue of getting away with what you can to help yourself and your tribe.
I spent a lot of my life in the Middle East and Central Asia, working closely with foreign contractors and foreign governments to provide support to American military operations. As a US Army officer with a big checkbook courtesy of Uncle Sam, I can’t really count the sheer number of times I was offered bribes to award a contract, or falsify records to do things like create larger (fake) headcounts at places like dining facilities, or to just simply be on the take for future illegal requests.
Of course I had enough sense to never comply with such requests. Moreover, they were never explicitly structured as “bribes”; instead it was usually along the lines of “Here I have these Rolexes as gifts for you and your wife to show our friendship.” (Unfortunately, too many US officers and NCOs succumbed to this siren song and ended up breaking rocks in Leavenworth.)
The weird thing about this to me was that whenever I turned down such an offering, it was treated as a grave insult. I was the one in the wrong, and not the fraudster trying to bribe me. They considered it rude that I was in their country and refused to accept how things got done. After all, why did I not want to help my tribe by helping their tribe?
Let me repeat: in these cultures, FRAUD IS NOT EVEN A CONCEPT. There is only what helps your tribe.
Such thought processes are so alien to Americans and much of the West. We are raised on the presumption that our institutions are valid, that the rule of law always prevails, and that integrity is universal. We need these presumptions to have working governments and economies, and without those presumptions—without the mental barrier that causes us not to accept outright fraud—our nation would quickly descend into the economic and social hellscape of countries like…. ummm… you know…. SOMALIA!
So when we import people en masse from cultures that accept bribery and fraud as routine, acceptable ways to advance one’s tribe, we should not be surprised that things like the $8 BILLION fraud schemes of the Somali population in Minnesota happen so easily.
Introducing a fraud-based culture based on tribalism into America is like introducing some sort of lethal virus into a population that has no natural immunity. The virus will spread and grow, unchecked, because it is so alien to the host. Similarly, a culture of fraud is anathema to American thinking, and it must be cut out before it consumes the host.
So when you see and hear patriotic Americans decrying what is happening in Minnesota or elsewhere, and when they seek deportation of the offenders, it is not “racism,” it is not “bigotry,” it is not “xenophobia”; instead, it is preserving the American tradition of responsible institutions and national integrity.
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
"Gavin Newsom is a goddamn joker. He is like from The Batman Dark Knight, the joker is in charge of Gotham, when he took over the city, basically the criminals roam free. That's California."
一 Elon Musk
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
🎯 nextVoL: a Tool for Volatility Target Indexes🎯
A few weeks ago, we were contacted by a large institutional client active in the business of volatility target indexes and fixed index annuities.
His question was crystal clear: “Can you build a volatility forecasting model that, when deployed in a volatility target index, consistently hits a predefined yearly volatility target with great precision?”
We took on the challenge and quickly teamed up with two outstanding econometricians, Antonio Mele and Walter Distaso. Combining our experience in volatility trading and intraday modeling with the academic rigor of our partners, we started building what we now call nextVoL.
The results exceeded our expectations!
Compared with classic volatility forecasting methods such as Historical Volatility, Implied Volatility, GARCH, RiskMetrics or even High-Frequency HAR, our nextVoL approach consistently outperformed over the past 20 years.
As shown in the figure attached, the distribution of the rolling 1-year volatility of the SPX Volatility Target Index powered by nextVoL is tightly concentrated around the 10% target, with minimal dispersion. By contrast, other well-known methods either display systematic bias or excessive volatility around the target.
We also benchmarked our nextVoL against another sophisticated model developed by a leading player in this field. The outcome was clear: our model reduced forecasting error by more than 30%. Here the study is conducted on NDX 5% Volatility Target Index.
The beauty of this engine lies in its combination of intuition, practical trading experience, and high-frequency econometrics. The approach is adaptive and can be applied across a wide range of financial instruments — from equity indexes to single stocks. Updating next-day volatility estimates takes just seconds, enabling flawless alignment with market moves — whether for adjusting option Greeks, managing portfolio risk, or sizing an intraday momentum trade.
Choosing the right volatility forecasting method can significantly improve investors’ risk-adjusted returns and allow options dealers to achieve smoother, more predictable PnL trajectories.
The topic may sound complex, but we’ll be publishing some simple notes in the coming weeks.
In case you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me at [email protected]
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
But in the current economic state, does that makes sense?
Why should people with less be subsidizing those with more?
Christopher Ruiz retweeted
Again-I am NOT impressed with what someone makes in a 6 months, 1 yr or even 10 yrs. I don’t care what kind of cars you drive or watches you own. I have known too many traders worth 5m-20m wind up driving uber. Make it, bank it, reset it and do it again and again. Live below your means.
