Vol to Valuation

We all know what happens when you miss the best days

Small Caps ($IWM) slightly more expensive than history but at a severe discount relative to large caps. Size premium will depend on long-term rates declining.

Only 14 of the last 130 trading days this year are responsible for the full return of the S&P 500 (up ~17% YTD).

$NVDA bearish engulfings since 2023

As of the end of March 2024, Starbucks had ~$1.9B in stored value within their rewards program. If a consumer ends up forgetting about the money, Starbucks sweeps it into an interest earning account. That “breakage” has earned Starbucks about $235M in the 2023 fiscal period!

New post out now! ⬇️⬇️⬇️ voltoval.substack.com/p/what…

New post out now! voltoval.substack.com/p/the-…

The Fed’s proxy Fed Funds Rate elevated relative to the effective rate but stalling out.

Everyone in the office after the alert went off

How much gas does the equity market rally have left? The chart below shows different time periods S&P 500 performance following a yield curve inversion (10s &1s).