Reasonably Valued Growth investor, occasionally value investor. Always keen to discuss investment theses. Poland based.

Warsaw, Poland
Joined January 2014
A horrific Russian strike in the Kharkiv region. A “shahed” struck people directly – in a park near an ordinary café. Pure atrocity. Six people were killed, including children. A little girl was killed in a stroller – her name was Angelina, she was just over a year old, born in August 2025… Her mother’s name was Inna. She died in the hospital… Another girl who was killed was 11 years old. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Another 14 people were injured, including six more children. I am grateful to everyone who supports Ukraine under these circumstances and helps us shoot down “shaheds,” shoot down missiles, and stop Russian assaults. These are horrific photos, but behind them are shattered lives and the truth about this war. Lives must be protected. Ukraine needs air defense. You can't think about making money with Russia as long as it continues its asinine war. We ask that sanctions on Russia stay in place as long as the killings continue. We ask America to be strong, and we ask it to apply the Lindsey Graham law. We ask Europe to continue its support. We ask that everything possible be done to bring peace and guarantee security. Ukraine wants peace. It is Russia that has insisted on continuing the killing all this time. The world has enough strength to stop the war. That strength must finally be used – against the murderers.
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Michal Pe retweeted
Poland should be the model for the rest of Europe.
Polska nie powtórzy błędów innych europejskich państw, nie będzie też za nie płacić. Twardo bronimy granicy przed nielegalną migracją, mamy własną politykę azylową (nie przyjmujemy wniosków), deportujemy tych, którzy łamią polskie prawo. W kwestii bezpieczeństwa będziemy bezwzględni. To usłyszeli ode mnie liderzy Europy w Brukseli.
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Michal Pe retweeted
Putin doesn’t want peace. Putin wants Ukraine. Enough is enough. President Trump should rescind the diesel deal with Russia and use the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act to impose harsh sanctions on nations purchasing Russian energy, work with our allies to ensure Ukraine has the military support it needs to repel and defeat this Russian invasion once and for all. Slava Ukraini🇺🇸🇺🇦
Moments ago, Russian forces bombed a residential neighborhood in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, hitting a grocery store. Three people lost their lives, and nine others, including two children, sustained injuries.
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Michal Pe retweeted
Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years Now they’re shrinking 4% annually Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/this-week-in-cha…
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I was having dinner last night with a friend working in the chicken industry and I learned something that blew my mind. Where do chicken farmers get their chickens? Most of us would say "from their existing chickens obviously, they breed and lay eggs." That's what I thought too, but turns out I was dead wrong. The reality is that the immense majority of meat chicken farmers in the world get their chickens from one of 2 companies: Cobb-Vantress, owned by Tyson Foods, or Aviagen, controlled by Germany's EW Group (the Wesjohann family). They have a concept specific to the industry called grandparent stock: what you buy from these 2 companies is - essentially - a bunch of chickens with planned obsolescence. The way it works is that each company keeps "pure" bloodlines on its own farms. Let's label them A, B, C and D. Those are the crown jewels - these companies' IP - and they never leave the building. What they sell you are the "grandparents": chicks from those four lines, but each line in only one sex. You get A roosters but no A hens, B hens but no B roosters, C roosters but no C hens, D hens but no D roosters. Which means you can never breed more A, B, C or D birds yourself. What you can do is cross them. A roosters with B hens give you the fathers, C roosters with D hens give you the mothers - these are the "parents". The parents then give you the chickens that actually end up on our plates, slaughtered at around 6 weeks. And that's the end of the road. If you tried breeding those chickens, their chicks would be a complete genetic lottery: still chickens, sure, but without the genetic properties that make them commercially viable. They'd grow slower and less evenly, you'd have to sell them for way more than your competitors, and your business would be dead. So you have to go back to Cobb or Aviagen for new grandparents. Forever. Why buy grandparents at all, and raise 2 generations just to sell the third? The answer is scale. If you buy say 100 grandparents, each of them gives you around 50 parents, and each parent hen then gives you around 150 chicks: from those 100 grandparents, you have yourself some 600,000 chickens whose meat you can sell. It makes no sense for these 2 companies to sell the final chickens directly. They'd have to hatch tens of billions of chicks a year and ship them all over the world. Much easier to simply sell the grandparents and let farmers do the multiplying and pay for the farms, the feed and the labor. And, you knew this was coming, there is also a China angle here: as you can imagine, China isn't too pleased to be dependent on foreign companies for such a basic food item as chicken. So China did what China does best: long-term planning. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a plan for "national broiler genetic improvement" (2021-2035), which aims for domestically bred breeds to make up at least 60% of the domestic market by 2035 (globaltimes.cn/page/202307/1…). And, of course, they're ahead of the plan. As of 2025, homegrown breeds held more than 30% of the market: halfway to the 2035 goal in just four years (agripost.cn/2026/08/17/china…). Can you escape all this as a consumer? Sure, you can buy organic or Label Rouge chicken, from slower-growing breeds raised for at least 81 days instead of 6 weeks, for two to three times the price. Except, plot twist: the genetics behind most of those slow-growing birds come from a French company called Hubbard... which has belonged to Aviagen since 2018 (euromeatnews.com/aviagen-ann…)😅 And even if you could truly escape, you wouldn't want everyone to: we'd need vast new swathes of farmland, both for the chickens and their feed. Ironically, advocating for organic free-range chicken for everyone is one of the worst positions one can take for the planet's resources. If you want to minimize your environmental footprint, the counterintuitive answer is to buy the cheapest supermarket chicken - or eat less meat, of course. As my friend was saying last night, you may not like the way this industry works but, at the end of the day, it's what puts affordable protein on the plates of billions of people, using proportionally fewer resources than any other way of raising chicken.
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Michal Pe retweeted
#DNP #JMP Według szacunku GUS z 30.09 zbiory zbóż w 2026 mają wynieść ok. 35,5mln ton, co oznacza spadek o 5,0% r/r. Zbiory ziemniaków na -15,4% r/r, warzyw gruntowych -4,0% r/r, a owoców z drzew na - 16,9% r/r; Potencjalna presja inflacyjna na żywność. Dobrze dla DNP i JMP
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This was a pretty good call eh 😂 $META
These $META earnings are probably a weak bottom. You only get a generational bottom when Cramer crashes out on air for 3 minutes straight
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🤯 WOW: A Ukrainian grandmother successfully neutralized a Russian fiber-optic FPV "waiting drone" by approaching the landed device and carefully removing its thread spool, rendering it useless.
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Michal Pe retweeted
#CBF dzisiejszy konferencja po wynikach 2Q'26 dość bycza, na wczorajszej nie byłem, ale czytając notki od biur maklerskich dużo danych się pokrywało. + Czują się komfortowo z założeniami wyników z programu motywacyjnego na 2026 i już nawet na 2027, co implikuje ładne wzrosty na EBITDA. + Dobra pozycja finansowa pod kolejną dużą akwizycje, padło do 1 miliarda PLN. + naprawianie Presty idzie zgodnie z założeniami, a pamiętam, że zwolnienia pracowników we Francji mogły stanowić problemy (tak mówili na WZA). Poniesione koszty są one-off i teraz będzie praca nad wyciskaniem rentowności, a wg słów Zarządu jest bardzo wiele pola w tym względzie. + raz jeszcze podkreślono faktyczną użyteczność AI w kontekście wzrostu wyników zarówno ich, jak i ich klientów, robo_FOLKS robi dobrą robotę i stanowi podstawę do budowy kolejnych agentów, co oszczędza koszty i czas. + ogólna poprawa sentymentu do spółek SaaS, szczególnie do tych, które faktycznie na rewolucji AI korzystają. Cała grupa CBF idealnie się w to wpisuje. Jestem na tak, zamykam oczy i czekam na wyniki roczne oraz kolejną akwizycję. Zarząd godny zaufania, perspektywy obiecujące. Z wyceną przy takim miksie raczej nigdy nie będzie "tanio", ale to też pojęcie względne. Screen: biuletyn Trigon
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Michal Pe retweeted
🚨 UWAGA - PRACA W FUNDUSZU PE Unikalna oferta pracy w funduszu typu growth equity. Szczegóły w załączonym screen i w linku poniżej. Ważne: poszukujemy osoby z kilkuletnim doświadczeniem w funduszu VC/PE. Stanowisko: Investment Manager Typ funduszu: growth equity📈 Kapitalizacja: 170 mln PLN Tickety inwestycyjne: 5-20mln PLN Okres inwestycyjny: do końca 2030 roku Jeśli jesteś zainteresowany pracą w zespole Momentum i partnerami @pdanowski, @gregalbrecht, @rditrych, zapraszamy do procesu! PS #fintwit będę wdzięczny za podanie dalej 🙏, zależy nam na dotarciu do najlepszych kandydatów.
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Uncomfortable truth from the PERE data: in real estate private equity funds, the year you launched matters more than what you bought. Only two cohorts in 13 years cleared the 1.2-1.4x DPI that LPs consider a good fund: 2010-12 and 2013-15. (*DPI of 1.0x means investors got their money back. Everything below that is still a promise) Both bought cheap after a crash and sold into free money. Every vintage since has trended one direction, and 2023 funds have returned zero. A lot of "top quartile" track records are just a timestamp. The PE managers worth backing now are the ones who returned cash in the vintages where nobody did.
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Funny how no one asked russia to halt strikes on Ukrainian civilians.
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This year, we have two and a half times fewer interceptors than we had in 2025. Russia has two times more ballistic missiles per month than they had before. We pay 100% to the Americans for ballistic missiles. We get the package from the U.S. and then comes my personal involvement. It doesn't work the other way. It's my personal talks, meetings and phone calls each day. I try to exchange something for missiles. I'm asking American partners to sell 5% of the missiles they have in stock. If the Americans sell us 5% – PAC-3 interceptors, nothing else – we will go through the winter and save people's lives. If they can sell us 10%, we will destroy all the Russians' ballistic missiles. As of today, I have 1%. From an interview with CNN.
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Michal Pe retweeted
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business. Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions. Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
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Today, Ukraine's long-range sanctions successfully struck important targets in Russia's Krasnodar and Stavropol regions – logistics hubs involved in supplying the Russian army with drone components, navigation equipment, and other gear – as well as another oil depot. In the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, a tanker and four cargo ships from Russia's shadow fleet were also hit. We thank all our warriors in Ukraine's Defense Forces for these results. We are, quite justly, bringing the war back home – to Russia. Peace is needed, and Ukraine has presented the Russian side with every proposal. They must be forced to turn to diplomacy. Glory to Ukraine!
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$TMDX with another record day of flights. Are they doing transplants?! Or what is happening?! If these are actual cases, they’re going to crush Q3 estimates by 20%+
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Michal Pe retweeted
$TMDX June US Transplant Update Seems like the dry runs might have some merit. Record breaking flight numbers did not lead to record breaking industry transplant volumes. Volumes decreased in June following a strong May. Total transplants were flat year over year, while DCD transplants maintained solid growth. This keeps Transmedics' 2026 revenue guidance mostly on track. Either dry runs or $TMDX taking share in a down month. - Total Transplant Volume: 1,760 (-7.7% MoM, 0% YoY) - DCD Volume: 646 (-9.1% MoM, +17% YoY) - DCD Share: 37% (32% last year) 2026 Management's Revenue Guidance - DCD Volume: Has to likely increase ~20% YoY. YTD is well on track at 27% but tougher comps ahead. - Total Transplant Volume: Has to increase 4 to 5%. Growth is currently at 4% YTD, impacted by a flat June.
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Friendly reminder that the Austrian treasury is the best in the world. Issue a 100y bond at par and now we trade in the 29s
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This is Damascus, the capital of my country. Israel bombed it less than a year ago, despite the fact that not a single shot had been fired at Israel from Syria for over 60 years. This had nothing to do with Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas. It was part of Israel’s efforts to interfere in the country’s internal affairs and keep it divided and weak. So when Israelis claim that Israel does not attack those who do not attack it, Damascus proves otherwise.
Have you seen the news about Israel attacking Egypt? Me neither, because Egypt has not been attacking Israel. 100% of the countries that do not attack Israel are not attacked by Israel.
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Efforts to deal with the aftermath of the Russian strikes are ongoing in Kyiv, as well as in Kharkiv. Last night, the Russians launched more than 60 missiles at the capital alone. In total, 70 missiles and 611 drones were used against Ukraine. As of now, 28 people have been reported injured and four killed in the capital. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. A Russian strike on the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra set the Dormition Cathedral on fire – a church whose history dates back to the 11th century. And this is one of Russia’s most serious crimes against Christian culture to date. The State Emergency Service has already extinguished the fire on the cathedral’s roof. In Kharkiv, the Russians carried out a repeat strike against our rescuers as they were putting out a fire at the site of an earlier strike on an industrial facility. So far, tragically, five people have been confirmed killed. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. Nine people have been injured. In Dnipro, Russia struck the grounds of a railway station, a college, and several enterprises. Other cities and communities were targeted as well. The Kyiv, Dnipro, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv regions were also under attack. This is how Russia shows the world its intention to continue the war. It is very important that there be a response from the G7 countries, which are now gathering for their summit – and that this response be decisive and substantive: more pressure on the aggressor and more support for Ukraine’s air defense, especially anti-ballistic capabilities. I thank everyone who is helping us protect lives.
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