Value investor, analyst. Macro. Independent moderate conservative. Anti-Division, we're in this together. NO DM's @Valubull28.bsky.social
Michigan
Joined September 2013
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MrToad28 retweeted
To my Florida Peeps:
Jose Javier Rodriguez is the Democratic candidate for Attorney-General.
I have met him. He is ethical and intelligent – and has stood up against the powerful special interests that dominate Florida politics.
His opponent, the current DeSantis-appointed Attorney General, rammed Allegator Alcatraz down our environmental throats. He also facilitated the $10 million transfer from a Medicare settlement fund to a foundation aligned with Casey DeSantis.
I would really, really like to see an ethical Attorney General in Tallahassee again. Which is why I’m voting for Jose Javier Rodriguez.
I hope you will join me.
Epstein Truth on Trump sexually assaulting underage girl.
MASSIVE BOMBSHELL: DAN GOLDMAN UNLEASHES TRUTH!
Congressman Goldman just went live with FBI 302 receipts. Evidence shows Trump unzipped his pants, forced a 13-year-old’s head down, and when she bit his p*nis in self-defense, he punched her and called her a "B."
The FBI interviewed her FOUR times while the case was buried. Pam Bondi lied to Congress, claiming “no evidence” of these crimes while sitting on files describing this exact assault. This is perjury and a cover-up for a predator.
You don’t get to "save the kids" while your AG hides files of a child being beaten for fighting back. History will remember the enablers.
We stand with the children who bit back.
MrToad28 retweeted
🔴 The first red signal on my Bear Market Checklist since April 2026.
Credit Markets has turned bearish, taking the count to 1 of 6.
The other five signals remain clear, and the primary trend is still bullish. An early warning worth watching, with the checklist still well short of a bear market.
MrToad28 retweeted
There is an important reason why we can never balance the budget through higher taxes alone. Spending over the past 12 months is 21.7% of GDP. We have never in history gotten taxes up that high, because every time it goes above 18% of GDP we get a recession. EVERY TIME. Recessions knock down tax collections.
Getting up even close to 18% is sometimes enough to trigger a recession. It can be thought of like the stall angle for an airplane wing. As you approach that angle, you can pitch the nose up and increase the angle of attack more, but you get less lift. You can increase the tax rates more, but if you go beyond 18% of GDP you get less money.
Please note that this chart shows the official revenue and expenditures data from Treasury, and it shows a fake surplus in 1999-2001. That surplus did not actually happen. The total debt has risen every year since 1960. It is not a surplus if you are still borrowing.
It really amazes me how many alleged “conservatives” tell me that we need to raise taxes to pay down the national debt instead of cutting spending because “cutting spending will never happen.”
I’ll concede that they are right about the latter (mostly because we can no longer get a supermajority and Republicans are almost unanimously spineless cowards), but that doesn’t mean I think that tax rates should be hiked.
If you are for higher taxes, then you aren’t a conservative, and I don’t care if we agree on 99% of other issues.
MrToad28 retweeted
Donald Trump set another record.
There’s NEVER been an election (since polling began in the United States) where voters said “corruption” was their top worry.
Until now.
MrToad28 retweeted
This video was deleted yesterday from Twitter by Elon Musk.
You know what to do ‼️‼️‼️
MrToad28 retweeted
DONALD TRUMP JUST TOLD A FEDERAL JUDGE TO GO TO HELL SO HE CAN BUILD HIMSELF A GOLF COURSE
A judge ordered a stop. In writing. Through October 26th. No work without court notice first
Trump's National Park Service didn't wait. In a matter of HOURS on October 10th they chainsawed down more than 400 TREES across a public golf course owned by the American people
This is East Potomac. A municipal course regular DC families actually use. Trump's plan: shut the whole thing down for FIFTEEN MONTHS starting in November and hand it a "championship" makeover
Judge Reyes was not having it. Told DOJ lawyers to their faces they'd lost all credibility. One of them claimed they did their "best." She shot back "no you did your absolute worst"
Read that twice. A FEDERAL JUDGE said Trump's own Justice Department did its ABSOLUTE WORST defending this
A preservation group already sued, calling it exactly what it is — an attempt to irreparably destroy a priceless piece of American history so Trump can carve out an "exclusive high-end golf course" on land that belongs to everyone else
This is not a renovation. This is a sitting president bulldozing a public park, defying a court order to do it, and torching 400 trees before anyone could stop him
Ordinary Americans get arrested for ignoring a judge. Trump gets a press conference and a ribbon cutting
This is the same man who can't keep gas prices down, can't keep his approval above 33 percent, and is bribing voters in Kentucky with taxpayer cash — but he always finds time and federal muscle for his own golf course
He wants a monument to himself paved over public land, judge's orders be damned
Share this before they finish paving over the evidence
MrToad28 retweeted
“we will pay any price….to assure the success and survival of liberty.” Is this still true? Do we prize liberty or do we prize power and purse? No more clear test than the choice between Ukraine and Russia. Abandon Ukraine and we abandon liberty. Eventually even our own.
MrToad28 retweeted
Instead of dooming how about "The Bull Case for equities for Q4"
I am short equities and long bonds at the moment so I don't need to wonder about the bear case. I don't need doom porn or crash memes for black monday. I need to consider where I am wrong.
I'll break it down into reasons to be bullish equities.
1. Earnings, earnings, earnings. They are accruing at the SPX level at 30% ish annualized. They will beat expectations over the next 5 weeks
2. Valuations could easily richen though are pretty rich
3. Long term interest rates could have topped
4. The Fed has things handled and won't be forced to tighten
5. after
a) the election the president will end the war and bring oil prices down
b) The Congress is and will be in gridlock which will keep fiscal humming but not overheat
c) election uncertainty will dissipate
6. when equities are high going into year end. Winners are chased by those underperforming at the same time as those who are outperforming refuse to sell winners due to capital gains tax realization (Broadly defined causal Santa Claus rally)
7. Bessent could reduce duration issuance and support assets
8. Circular financing by all (NVDA in particular) will offset any supply or issuance that has been a headwind to compute investment
9. Reflexive consumption/dissaving due to asset price increases could drive above trend real growth and support stocks over bonds
10. It's possible that Hedge funds will/have been flushed out of positions and positioning is too bearish
I'm sure there are more bullish cases but these are some of mine. I am not bullish as I don't think the above is a good case but it exists for sure
MrToad28 retweeted
My message to my more than 46,000 followers. Please read this tweet.
My American friends. The elections are fast approaching. The whole world is watching you closely. Many of us are very worried about what might happen. We all know that Trump won’t let go of power. Personally, I’m afraid of another January 6 but even worse.
Even though it may seem scary, you'll get through this.
I hope you’ll go out and vote. Everyone, vote and tell this administration: “NO TO A SECOND CHANCE.”
I’ll be following the election from start to finish. It will be very late in France, so I plan to stay up all night.
I was born in the late ’90s and grew up in the 2000s and 2010s. I miss that America full of hope, the one that elected an African American president in 2008, the one that stood by its allies, the one that had honor, terribly, and rest assured, hundreds of millions of people around the world miss it too.
Come to your senses, take back the reins, and say, “Fuck you, Trump,” this November.
Happy Saturday everyone 🎃🍂🦉
MrToad28 retweeted
Everyone online says the dollar is collapsing. It is doing the exact opposite.
The story you hear is debasement, the dollar dying. If that were true, it would at least be exciting.
The boring truth matters more. The dollar is getting stronger, and not because America is booming.
Almost all global borrowing and trade runs on dollars. So when credit tightens, borrowers scramble for dollars just to service what they already owe. Caution makes the dollar rise, not strength.
Look at India. The central bank hiked rates and pulled in over 100 billion in inflows. The rupee is still sitting a whisker above its record low.
That is not a world expanding together. That is a world quietly running scared.
MrToad28 retweeted
An important study that deserves to be shared as widely as possible within the English-speaking world.
Last night, our friends at the *Militarnyi* portal published an English-language article containing a technical analysis of the onboard computer from a Russian jet-powered drone—the "Geran-4."
Of the 105 components identified, 80 come from American companies; Texas Instruments alone (including components from National Semiconductor, which was acquired by TI in 2011) accounts for 58.1% of the total.
In short: this points to a systemic reliance on Western electronics in this Russian attack drone.
For this reason, we have created a separate English-language "quote tweet" with commentary, in which we have tagged @TXInstruments directly.
We would appreciate it if you could share this post. 😉
Please tag journalists, American politicians, experts, and organizations involved in sanctions and export controls in the comments.
Our experience in disseminating such investigations shows that it is crucial to bring these findings to light beyond the Ukrainian "information bubble." They need to be seen by the manufacturers themselves, as well as by journalists, analysts, sanctions experts, American policymakers, and export control specialists.
Regardless of the current policy of the White House, the United States is much more than just a single administration or a single president. They include Congress, the media, industry experts, manufacturers, and government institutions—all of whom can raise the question of how American electronics end up in Russian attack drones on such a large scale. Therefore, such revelations must continue.
@informnapalm xitter.cf/InformNapalm/status/21…
Russia calls this “domestic production.”
Yet in the Geran-4 flight controller examined by Ukrainian specialists, no Russian-made electronics were found at all. Of 105 identified components, 80 came from 🇺🇸 U.S. companies — with @TXInstruments, including components from National Semiconductor acquired by TI in 2011, accounting for 58.1%.
#Russia #US #ExportControls
Epstein update: FBI notes confirm Trump sexually assaulted not 1 but 2 13 year old girls
So we finally have the sworn testimony from a SECOND 13 year old female who alleged to being sexually assaulted by Donald Trump. The sworn testimony by the first victim, who has made her name publicly known now, was in turn corroborated, also under 1/
rawstory.com/todd-blanche-ep…
MrToad28 retweeted
This post from Jeff is really important, but I fear those not versed in commodity trading parlance might need the English translation.
What Jefff is saying is that until now, the smart money (pro oil traders who think about the whole term structure) were convinced, "this too shall pass". That's where the record backwardation came from - they all thought it would blow the price of the "front month" to the moon, but within a few months it would be over.
Now, despite the escalations on the military front, backwardation is starting to fade as the back of the curve (what the smart money is willing to pay to lock in delivery of oil *next year* is "panciking along with the dumb money".
If that's still too technical, Jeff just said "shit just got real".
The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
MrToad28 retweeted
If Trump and Republicans had worked to lower cost of living, lowered costs of gas and diesel, stayed out of wars, and released the Epstein files without a fight, Republicans would have won for the next 4-6 years.
Instead Republicans may not win for the next 10 years because they all cheerleaded Trump as Trump bullied everyone internationally using tariffs as a bludgeon which in turn really hurt Americans and drove inflation, started an unprovoked war with Iran skyrocketing gas and diesel prices, and refused to release the Epstein files so voraciously that he posted that anyone who wanted the files are now his “past supporters.”
And Republicans are still silent cowards totally oblivious to how bad they have burned their credibility with Americans, especially with the younger generations.
Currently there is not a single Republican Presidential hopeful that could win in 2028.
