It’s funny because we said 3 months ago the future hedge fund analyst job will be to collect esoteric information This is another step forward to automate that part of the job My theory is that relationships and access to semi-private information will be all the alpha up for grabs in a few years

“Coreweave is like a kid in detention.” Jim Bianco says that spreads are coming almost exclusively from CCCs like Coreweave. BBs and Bs barely moved, so contagion isn’t happening. He argues that just because overlevered companies in detention are “bad,” their issues are not bleeding into the whole school. Also, he claims that “the mass borrowing in the high yield market is not AI driven.” Is this bullish outlook what the bond market should be hoping for?

Germany has the highest savings rate in Europe, but its pension assets are just 7% of GDP. Canada’s are 185%. Where do you think €90bn a year of new German pension money will go first: German infrastructure, or the S&P 500?

Endowment funds absolutely killing it "Harvard University’s endowment jumped to a record $68 billion as successful bets on equities and venture capital helped the university weather pressure from President Donald Trump. The fund returned 27% and donations rose to $1.5 billion, with the endowment adding a total of $11 billion during the period, benefiting from broad gains in the stock market and its hedge fund portfolio. Harvard provided more than $775 million in financial aid and spent $969 million in capital expenditures, with about 40% of the university’s operating revenue coming from the endowment."

How about, you know, studying something useful?

Pitchbook: US leveraged loan A&E volume ticked up in September compared to August, but trails behind other months over the past year.

“Fear two forces: God and the bond market.” IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva urges countries to have the courage to reduce their debt and their deficit. Even in a market with extreme capital crowding, she urges that with a strong "productive economy,” these countries should be able to reduce their debt. “France has a budget that aims to bring the deficit down, there is no magic, you have to do it, otherwise you will be punished.”

When I was in banking, the reality was that most private companies don’t let employees hedge their stock. Equity agreements usually restrict transfers and hedging, and even where it’s allowed, a buyer will charge a steep discount for taking on illiquid private shares. That’s why recent joiners carry the most risk around an IPO. They often have 1. The highest cost basis, 2. A lot of unvested equity, and 3. Very few ways to protect themselves before the lock-up ends.

When CNBC asks a simple question and you realise you’re about to explain net exposure to the entire country

"Our portfolio is well positioned to compound at 40% to 50% or higher over the next several years."

Could OpenAI start a recession? Steve Eisman thinks so. “If OpenAI went bankrupt, I think the US economy would go into a recession” Even as private players, “they and Anthropic both went out and made commitments to anybody who would take their pen,” leading to concentration fears. “The problem with AI is the concentration problem: 70% of NVIDIA’s accounts receivable come from 5 customers” This comes among fear of CoreWeave’s debt burden and bond yields.

It’s funny because we said 3 months ago that of course it can take over coding, but art and creativity will always have a moat. I’m not sure anyone today would stand by that. This is shockingly good, and it’s just been 3 months! The speed of acceleration and beliefs being broken one after the other is fascinating.

My partner cheering up the investment team after a portfolio company breaches its convenant

Blackstone (original owners) realizing that none of Gen Z is dating and dumping their shares on the public:

We live in alternate reality where McCormick controls all the spice routes out of India and this merger will increase salt prices to $1,000/oz

Graph from pitchbook showing the evolution of cov-lite deals in the US leveraged loan market 60% in 2014 up to 90% today.

“GAAP, non-GAAP, adjusted, pro-forma, annualized, run rated, it’s all a fugazi, fugazy, its a whazzy its a whoozy. It’s fairy dust. It doesn’t exist.”