Currently searching global public markets for alpha. Not investment advice.

Joined February 2012
Andrew Pogue retweeted
Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸
@pmarcaMay 4
Current AI custom prompt: You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can. Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
Two Journal entries I just stuck in Google Docs. The first was inspired by my Skull Session with @UnderlyingValue. (Full convo here: skullsessions.video/p/skull-… The second is about digging into what short-term investing really means. Planning to publish one this Friday. Excerpts👇
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
4.7x EV/EBITDA. Peers at 12-24x. Organic growth in double digits. And a hidden business segment nobody is pricing in. I sat down with EQVA's CFO and the investor who brought me this idea. We go through the acquisition strategy, the real story behind management turnover, and the optionality buried inside the group. Full transcript and my post-call takeaways
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
Inflation - widespread observations.. Copper:  Up ~16% in a week. Cobalt:  Up 54% YTD. Crude:  Up 21% YTD Corn:  Up ~32% since Dec. Wheat:  Up ~15% since Dec. Pork:  Up 16% in 4 days. Lumber:  Up 53% YTD. Nickel:  Up ~10% in a few weeks. Yield curve waking up.
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Over the last 2 years, I’ve grown a bootstrapped business by 8 figures in revenue. Sounds awesome right? It wasn’t pretty. There was a LOT of failure, misstep and doubt along the way. Here are 20 (non-fortune cookie) lessons that made me a 10x better leader [THREAD]
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Search Fund Advice Megathread: In my searcher survey I asked searchers for their one piece of advice to prospective searchers. This thread is 29 pieces of advice current searchers and operators shared and I hope you find immense value in their perspectives. Enjoy below 👇🏻
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
.@jonathanvswan: “Oh, you’re doing death as a proportion of cases. I’m talking about death as a proportion of population. That’s where the U.S. is really bad. Much worse than South Korea, Germany, etc.” @realdonaldtrump: “You can’t do that.” Swan: “Why can’t I do that?”
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This really is the Powder Keg Economy. Create a powder keg in tech stocks; solve it w a powder keg in real estate; solve that w a powder keg in corporate credit; when it blows during a pandemic, build another powder keg. BTW the Inequality Powder Keg is just beginning to blow up.
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
zerohedge
@zerohedge26 Jun 2020
Stocks are tumbling in the last hour of trading, you know what that means: Unleash the Kudlow KUDLOW SAYS EVERY NUMBER IS SHOWING V-SHAPE RECOVERY FOR U.S.
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The US (S&P 500) has won bc of tech Tech companies (many founded by talented immigrants) thrive by recruiting great talent Talent is global, and in the past the best ppl have gravitated to the US Best thing would be to make US ideal home for ambitious and talented immigrants
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
United States will hit a new high for new Covid cases next week at the current course and speed. It's not just more testing. Positivity rate was 5% yesterday vs. 4% for the prior 3 days. New cases lead hospitalizations by 1-2 weeks and deaths by roughly 4 weeks. Chart via MS.
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This is fine
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
JC Oviedo@JCOviedo69 Jun 2020
~68k Robinhood accounts own bankrupt Latin American airline company $LTM with almost all of the buying coming after the company filed for bankruptcy in May. The stock was just booted off the NYSE. Enjoy the OTC markets robinhodlers!
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
I love Australia and this man emerging from his house to get the Prime Minister off his lawn is one of the reasons why.
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
POWELL: FED'S POLICIES `ABSOLUTELY' DON'T ADD TO INEQUALITY... twitter needs to flag this one
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Maybe this deserves a bit more than just making fun of it ; so let’s explain why this report is total nonsense. (As followers know, I have spent a shitload of time looking at data worldwide and R estimations, so I think I'm qualified for a thread!)
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic) (1/x)
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All jokes aside, the decimation of the oil market is telling us something; it is sniffing out something that the equity markets are not *yet*. I know, I know you say "but the FED blah blah blah." However, you do not see unprecedented moves like this and not pay attention.
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
Another brutal cartoon, from Pulitzer Prize winner Darrin Bell "Hoax"
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Andrew Pogue retweeted
The U.S. shouldn’t bail out billionaires and hedge funds during the coronavirus pandemic, Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya says. “Who cares? Let them get wiped out.” cnb.cx/2Rpmjkh
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Hard to wrap your head around this chart of jobless claims (ht @TheStalwart)
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