Kostyantynivka Update In recent weeks, Russian vanguard elements have advanced into significant portions of Kostyantynivka. On July 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the complete capture of the settlement, marking the intended culmination of its offensive. However, independent analysis of available evidence casts significant doubt on this assertion. Recent visual evidence published by the Russian 4th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 3rd Army Corps shows Russian personnel displaying flags at various locations across the town. While analysis suggests these images are authentic and confirm a genuine Russian physical presence, they do not substantiate absolute territorial control. The footage predominantly consists of isolated, fleeting snapshots of individual soldiers or small two-man teams, rather than consolidated unit formations. (Red markers denote these verified Russian positions on the accompanying map) The primary vector of the Russian advance into the western high-rise residential districts originated from Illinivka. Russian information operations have attributed this breach to an alleged tactical failure by elements of the Ukrainian 156th Mechanized Brigade deployed in this sector. Consequently, Russian forward elements have dispersed across much of the western side of the town, with sightings reported throughout the area west of the Kryvyi Torets river. Despite this, isolated visual evidence confirms a sustained Ukrainian presence. Given the highly fluid nature of the combat environment, clearly delineating consolidated Russian control zones from Ukrainian defensive positions remains challenging. As a result, we currently classify the entire western sector as contested pending more definitive data. This sector is fragmented, featuring localized zones of exclusive Russian control alongside areas where Ukrainian forces still maintain a tactical advantage. East of the Kryvyi Torets river, Russian forces have entered the urban periphery—primarily advancing through the forested terrain near Novodmytrivka—but geolocation data indicates they have not yet penetrated the deeper urban center. Notably, the eastern high-density residential estates appear to remain firmly under Ukrainian control. Recent footage from the Ukrainian 19th Army Corps, corroborates this by inadvertently showing Ukrainian personnel actively operating at various coordinates within the city limits. While scattered images of Russian flag-bearers suggest isolated river crossings from west to east, we assess that the settlement remains functionally bisected, with minimal cross-river force projection by either side. (Verified Ukrainian positions from recent days are marked in blue) Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in documented Ukrainian airstrikes targeting Russian positions within the urban perimeter. While this surge in visual evidence may partially stem from revised operational security guidelines regarding media publication, it strongly implies that the Ukrainian Air Force places a high strategic priority on this sector. (Orange markers on the map indicate these airstrike locations) Ongoing Russian disinformation campaigns have increasingly mischaracterized combat footage. For example, we have identified numerous videos falsely labeled as Ukrainian forces being shelled in areas north of Kostyantynivka; however, geolocation confirms these strikes are actually occurring within the city limits of Kostyantynivka itself. Additionally, collaborative research with @WarUnitObserver indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed elements from three distinct assault regiments over recent weeks to conduct clearing and stabilization operations within the city. Because visual confirmation of their tactical impact is currently unavailable in open sources, their specific unit designations are being withheld in accordance with OPSEC. A notable anomaly is the current absence of footage depicting Ukrainian armored vehicles and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) operating within the city limits. This suppression is likely tied to the intense concentration of Russian fiber-optic drones, which currently significantly restrict the mobility of these vehicles. Conversely, there is also a lack of visual evidence of Russian use of UGVs, motorcycles, or armored vehicles in the city, which suggests that they largely reach the city on foot. Extending from the Kostyantynivka valley, the contested zone appears to have expanded. We have documented multiple individual Russian infiltrations into Dovha Balka and at least one recorded incursion into Rozkishne. However, a sustained Ukrainian presence remains visually evident in both locations, as well as in Stepanivka to the south: a tactical reality consistently omitted by Russian information operations. Meanwhile, the frontline around Chasiv Yar and its immediate environs appears to remain relatively stable. In contrast, the settlements of Novodmytrivka and Molocharka, situated on Kostyantynivka's eastern flank, are currently the site of intense combat engagements due to pressure from the Russian 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. As there is less video footage available from both flanks of the city, it's harder to assess the situation there. In summary, the tactical situation in Kostyantynivka has deteriorated significantly for Ukrainian forces over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, substantial portions of the settlement remain either contested or under consolidated Ukrainian control, and Russian forces have yet to establish comprehensive territorial dominance. Consequently, the Russian Ministry of Defense's declaration regarding the complete capture of the town is assessed as highly premature. The trajectory of this engagement will depend heavily on the efficacy of recent Ukrainian tactical deployments and counter-maneuvers. We will continue to monitor and update this operational assessment. Map reference: map.ukrdailyupdate.com/ Report by @AudaxonX

Just leaving this here. t.me/hart_brigade/1096

Kostyantynivka. Summary: Recent videos confirm additional Russian infiltrations in the northern part of the city, while Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in the south. Geolocated footage from southern Kostyantynivka shows Ukrainian soldiers under fire, consistent with reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that Russian forces are infiltrating via the western flank at Illinivka. Recent footage confirms Ukrainians still hold a presence in Illinivka while Russian forces have taken control of Berestok. Notably, some Russian channels, such as creamy_caprice, are labeling large areas as “under full Russian control”, overlooking Ukrainian positions in the south and the fact that Russian infiltrations are coming from the west, and not (!) the south. Kostyantynivka is divided into two parts, separated by a river and partially demolished industrial facilities, which hinders movement between them. Russian soldiers have been repeatedly observed along the main access road to the western section, which could complicate Ukrainian withdrawals from the southern part of the western area, as they no longer have a supply and rotation route through Ukrainian-held territory. Troop movements now require passage through contested zones. Similar, albeit smaller-scale, developments are observed in the eastern part of the city. In isolated cases, Russian soldiers penetrated deep into Ukrainian-held territory and have even been spotted once in the high-rise district. However, the primary incursion appears to be in the western part of the city. The origins of the current situation remain unclear. The loss of a relatively stable line of contact is reminiscent of the battles for Toretsk in early 2025 and Pokrovsk in mid-2025. If this pattern continues, the battle for Kostyantynivka may last several more months. There are currently no indicators that the city will fall into Russian hands anytime soon. We will continue to monitor the situation and have just updated the map! map.ukrdailyupdate.com

The situation in Kostyantynivka has deteriorated in recent days, with several Russian soldiers infiltrating the city center. Despite a confirmed Ukrainian presence in southern Kostyantynivka and nearby towns such as Illinivka and Novodmytrivka, Russian forces managed to bypass these positions and enter high-rise and industrial areas of the city center, where they came under attack. -> xitter.cf/AudaxonX/status/205890… (example) While it is not always possible to confirm the elimination of infiltrators, a stable Russian presence appears unlikely. The area remains a patchwork of Ukrainian control and contested zones. Limited data make an accurate assessment challenging at this time. Russian control requires a permanent, continuous presence and the absence of Ukrainian forces. These conditions are not currently met. However, pro-Russian analysts are already depicting much of the city as under Russian control, disregarding the ongoing Ukrainian presence. A similar pattern to the battles of Pokrovsk and Toretsk is likely, where large areas remained contested and Ukrainian forces held key positions, preventing Russian control for an extended period. We will update the map this evening. -> map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

The current situation in Kostyantynivka continues to deteriorate: Ukrainian forces are still holding their positions in the south of the town and in Ivanopillya. At the same time, Russian forces are keeping up pressure on the flanks and sometimes manage to make deep penetrations with isolated infiltrations. Last week, Russian forces raised flags in Illinivka, but the area is still being shelled and attacked by drones, which shows it is still contested. Russian troops have also been seen for the first time in the northwest part of Kostyantynivka. The map has been updated, but the situation is still complicated because there is no clear front line. On the eastern flank of the town, Russians continue to be spotted regularly in the Hora District in Kostyantynivka, which is under heavy shelling from both sides. Meanwhile, a Russian presence was detected for the first time in Molocharka, confirming further attempts by Russia to bypass Kostyantynivka. Notably, Russian sources provide conflicting accounts of the origin of this infiltration. Did it come from the south (via Novodymitrivka) or the north (via Virolybuivka and Stinky)? Here, too, we have updated the contested area. Visit our map here: -> map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

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