Thematic Global Macro Portfolio Manager
London
Joined July 2010
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Tom Roderick retweeted
I told u 2 weeks ago that it’s decision making time for the Saudis & the amount of oil volume they bring back to the market, given they supported the oil market over-proportionally with their unilateral deeper cuts of 0.5mbpd vs their OPEC quota.
Now, Saudi Arabia slashed its economic growth forecasts and projected deeper budget deficits than previously estimated as the cost of efforts to overhaul the kingdom’s economy outpace revenue.
Economic output is now seen growing at 0.8% this year, down from a prior forecast of 4.4%, according to fresh estimates in a report from the Finance Ministry on Monday. Projections for 2025-2026 were also significantly scaled back.
The Finance Ministry projected a wider budget shortfall of about 2.9% of GDP for 2024. Deficits are seen at 2.3% of GDP in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, also both worse than previously expected.
Deficits are forecast to persist due to “expansionary spending policy intended to support economic growth,” the ministry said.
#OPEC
Tom Roderick retweeted
Has any other piece of legislation done what it set out to do, so decisively and so quickly?
Tom Roderick retweeted
1) I reveal my high school results at the end of our Miami dinner.
I received an A in French, a B in English, a C in Physics, a D in chemistry, a N in math, and an E in biology.
This was my first encounter with the F-word. I was a big failure! 🧵
Tom Roderick retweeted
The Prime-Age 25-54 Employment Rate adjusts for 1) aging and 2) changes in participation.
It reached a new cyclical high, highest in 22yrs.
Biden has already seen 10 months at 80%+
For comparison:
Trump: 7 months
Obama: 0 months
GWB: 18 months
Clinton: 56 months
Tom Roderick retweeted
Macro on the streets of London…with @ToStRo…Portobello Road on a Sunday morning
Tom Roderick retweeted
Let's talk European electricity, shall we?
Thread
Part I (of many more to come); 1/n
Tom Roderick retweeted
Excellent podcast interview by @SrivatsPrakash and @ToStRo:
Key takeaways:
-No alternatives to USD
-CNY would likely crater if freely traded
-Inflation likely stickier than most expect
-Way too early to be long Bonds
overcast.fm/+ZGKiMG3m4
Tom Roderick retweeted
Despite recent increases in energy prices, they are still relatively low as a percentage of total expenditures in the US (source St Louis Federal Reserve)
Tom Roderick retweeted
Fistful of Dollars ✊💵
Rigid Things Break Abruptly ➖🧨
Stop-Start Dynamics (harmful) ❎✅
Collateral based lending systems 💱🫰
Consumption Centers - All roads lead TO Rome
@profplum99 x @hendry_hugh x @ToStRo
@SimplifyETFs compliance 👏
youtu.be/VEntYryTDE8
Tom Roderick retweeted
“I am of the opinion that weaponizing dollars is better for humanity than weaponizing 19 year olds.”
Well said @pineconemacro .
very well said. 👏👏👏
Tom Roderick retweeted
Ha! Well I'd like to think Soros is an 'acid capitalist' subscriber. Perhaps he read Tom's @ToStRo follow up threads too:
xitter.cf/ToStRo/status/14429930…
xitter.cf/ToStRo/status/14450533…
If the Beijing clock has stopped watch out Xi & global growth 🙈
Tom Roderick retweeted
Poll: To which of the following four macro outcomes will you assign the highest probability for 2022? Base case or modal outcome, not tail risk.
Please specify if the choice is something else. Will appreciate votes and any RTs. 🙏 – at Guwahati, India
30%Trend Growth+Disinflation
22%Stagflation
18%Recession/Deflation
30%High growth & inflation
607 votes • Final results