Portfolio Manager for the @OakleighIM 18.6 Strategic, Flagship Equites & Multi Asset Growth portfolios. š£ š¤æ āļø š šļø. Disclaimer; https://xitter.cf/t.co/ZItQN2KXjC
Adelaide
Joined August 2012
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Tim Moffatt retweeted
Markets rarely do exactly what everyone expects.
Despite an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop, short interest across the S&P 500 has risen sharply, with the median stock now at around 3.2% of market cap.
That creates an interesting setup as we head into the final months of the year.
Historically, peaks in short interest havenāt necessarily coincided with market tops. In fact, crowded short positioning can provide fuel for a rally if sentiment improves, as investors are forced to unwind bearish positions.
We saw a similar build-up in short interest during the mid-2000s, before that positioning unwound as equities continued higher.
With the historically stronger year-end period approaching, could we see something similar this time?
The economic backdrop may be deteriorating, but positioning suggests plenty of investors are already prepared for bad news.
A strong bearish consensus could ultimately set the stage for an end-of-year market rally.
Follow @OakleighIM for more insights.
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Australia's debt pile is getting harder to ignore.
This chart shows how much government and non-government borrowing has accumulated over the past two decades.
The question is no longer just how much debt exists.
It's what happens when that debt needs to be refinanced at higher rates.
A Thread.
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Thank you to the Institute of Managed Account Professionals (IMAP) for hosting the 2026 IMAP Awards last night in Sydney.
The event brings together investment managers from across the country to recognise excellence in the managed accounts industry.
Congratulations to Strategic Wealth Lifestage for taking out the Boutique Licensee award for 2026.
It was an honour to be named a finalist, and a proud moment for our team. Thank you to everyone at Oakleigh Investment Management for your dedication, and to our clients for your continued trust.
Learn more about us at oakleighfs.com/oim
Oakleigh Team:
@TimMoffOak, Lucas Wood, @DarrenW006, @Phil_J_Anderson & @AkhilGPatel
#IMAPAwards #SMA #InvestmentManagement
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Oakleigh is pleased to deliver another year of strong performance.
The Oakleigh Multi Asset Growth Portfolio returned +18.0% for FY26 (net of investment fees and tax), outperforming every fund in Chant West's Top 10 Growth Funds, including the highest-performing fund, UniSuper Growth (+12.3%).
Key contributors to performance in FY26 include international value, global gold miners, and emerging markets.
This marks the third consecutive year the Portfolio has outperformed the top-performing Growth super fund. It has also outperformed the Chant West survey median return for five consecutive years, demonstrating a consistent track record of long-term performance.
While Oakleigh doesn't meet Chant West's $1 billion assets under management threshold to be included in the official rankings, the comparison illustrates where the Portfolio would have ranked.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Tim Moffatt retweeted
US semiconductors ($SOXX) have had an incredible run into 2026.
Earnings upgrades on the back of insane AI compute demand, chip shortages keeping prices (and margins) sky high. It just kept climbing.
Here's the thing about parabolic moves though: they rarely end calmly.
Valuations are priced for perfection right now, and momentum has stalled for the first time in months.
High prices tend to cure themselves. More chip competition, cheaper compute architectures, or AI just getting smarter about needing fewer chips in the first place. It may happen eventually; the jury is out.
Nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
Markets reward discipline over excitement. To learn more about Oakleigh Investment Management's approach to long-term portfolio construction, visit Oakleigh Investment Management: oakleighfs.com/
*For general information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Returning +33.7% over the past 12 months, the Oakleigh 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio remained focused on preserving capital rather than chasing late-cycle gains.
Throughout the year, the Portfolio adapted to changing market conditions through disciplined positioning, ending the quarter with approximately 50% allocated to cash and bonds in line with its focus on capital preservation.
Explore the Portfolio's performance, investment approach and current positioning on our website.
Learn more: oakleighfs.com/strategic-invā¦
*Return is just one factor to consider when thinking about investing your money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Investment Committee & Partners:
@TimMoffOak, @AkhilGPatel, @Phil_J_Anderson, & @PropertySharem1
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Returning +18.0% over the past 12 months, the Oakleigh Multi Asset Growth Portfolio outperformed its long-term objective of CPI +3.5%.
Throughout the year, the Portfolio balanced growth opportunities with defensive positioning and gradually rebuilt growth exposure as market conditions improved. This disciplined approach helped it remain well positioned while adapting to changing market conditions.
Discover how the Portfolio's diversified approach has supported its long-term performance on our website.
Learn more: oakleighfs.com/multi-asset-gā¦
*Return is just one factor to consider when thinking about investing your money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
____________________
Investment Committee & Partners:
@TimMoffOak, @AkhilGPatel, @Phil_J_Anderson, & @PropertySharem1
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Over the past 12 months, the Oakleigh Flagship Equities Portfolio returned +17.3%, outperforming the All Ordinaries Index.
Despite a year of market volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, the Portfolio remained focused on high-quality businesses while actively managing risk through disciplined capital allocation.
Explore the Portfolio's performance, investment approach and current positioning on our website.
Learn more: oakleighfs.com/flagship-equiā¦
*Return is just one factor to consider when thinking about investing your money. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
____________________
Investment Committee & Partners:
@TimMoffOak, @AkhilGPatel, @Phil_J_Anderson, & @PropertySharem1
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Guiding principle:
When long-term yields rise, the cost of capital rises with them.
Thatās when valuations come under pressure.
Understanding where we are in the cycle matters.
Explore a managed investment portfolio aligned with the Real Estate & Banking Cycle: oakleighfinancial.com/strateā¦
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Several late-cycle pressures are building in markets:
ā¢ Rapid growth in private credit
ā¢ Heavy concentration in AI and the MAG7
ā¢ Huge AI investment spending
ā¢ Long-term bond yields staying high
ā¢ A steepening US yield curve
These are the kinds of signals that often appear late in the cycle.
Watch the full video to understand what these trends could mean for markets in 2026: youtu.be/24QDLbfLX8k
Tim Moffatt retweeted
How do Oakleigh portfolios compare with major sharemarket indices and superannuation funds?
The chart below shows 3-year annualised returns to 31 December 2025.
Our approach is built around the 18-20 year Real Estate & Banking Cycle, tactically positioning portfolios ahead of major economic shifts rather than reacting to them.
Return is just one factor to consider when thinking about investing your money.
Learn more: oakleighfinancial.com/oim
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Investment Committee & Partners:
@timmymoff @AkhilGPatel @Phil_J_Anderson @PropertySharem1
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Oakleigh portfolios are now holding 29-51% cash.
This is our most conservative positioning in 5+ years.
Here's what we're seeing:
1. Geopolitical: Iran escalation = tail risk
2. Credit: Private credit stress building quickly
3. Leverage: System-wide debt at extremes
4. Cycle: Year 17 of 18.6 = late-stage dynamics
These may resolve in the near-term. Or they may accelerate.
Either way, late-cycle positioning demands caution.
In the coming week, we will post updates on our positioning and thesis.
Follow @OakleighIM for our market analysis in these turbulent times.
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Ladies and gentlemens, brace yourselves history is repeating with a vengeance, and the sequel looks even more explosive.
I present to you the new and improved synthetic mortgage-backed CDOs that detonated the 2008 financial crisisā¦ rebranded for 2026 as private credit funds.
BlackRock has just made history
For the first time ever, theyāve slammed the gates shut on their high risk $26 billion private credit flagship (HLEND), capping redemptions at a brutal 5% after investors tried to yank out 9.3% ($1.2 billion) in a single quarter. Only $620 million gets paid out good luck to the rest still trapped inside.
And thatās just the appetizer.
Blackstoneās monster BCRED the largest non-traded private credit vehicle on the planet at $82 billionā¦.faced a record 7.9% redemption tsunami ($3.8 billion sought).
They flexed to meet it all (upsizing the limit and injecting firm/employee cash), but net outflows still hit $1.7 billion after inflows.
These two titans alone represent over $108 billion in combined outflow pressure right now.
The entire $2 trillion global private credit empire is teetering on the edge and we havenāt even seen a real equities bloodbath yet.
Imagine what happens when panic truly sets in, when the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater, and forced sales of illiquid loans start cascading through the system.
This isnāt just a liquidity hiccup. Itās the echoes of 2008 on steroids: opaque lending, retail investors piling in for yield, liquidity mismatches waiting to explode, and now the first real gates slamming shut.
The contagion could make the subprime meltdown look bullish in comparison.
Buckle upā¦..this shadow banking giant is waking up, and when it stumbles, the fallout wonāt be contained to a few funds.
Stay vigilant and remain diligent.
Yours truly,
The Great MartisāØ
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Markets delivered in 2025:
ā¢ MSCI World Index: +19.5%
ā¢ Dow Jones Industrials Index: +13.0%
ā¢ All Ordinaries Accumulation Index +10.6%
Oakleigh 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio: +46.2%
This was not accidental. It reflected where we are in the Real Estate & Banking Cycle.
Late-cycle conditions reward certain investments. But the cycle is always moving, and positioning must stay one step ahead.
Guiding principle: Align with the phase. Adjust before the turn.
Learn how the portfolio is positioned: oakleighfinancial.com/strateā¦
Tim Moffatt retweeted
The average super fund returned 10-13% in 2025.
Oakleigh's 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio returned 46%.
That's not a small difference. That's a different investment philosophy.
One that understands where we are in the Real Estate Banking Cycle - and positions accordingly.
Learn more: oakleighfinancial.com/oim
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Investment Committee & Partners:
@timmymoff @AkhilGPatel @Phil_J_Anderson @PropertySharem1
Tim Moffatt retweeted
Rising bond yields remain the biggest long-term risk to markets.
US Treasury yields, particularly the 10- and 30-year, are breaking higher as Treasury prices break down. This reflects sustained pressure on long-term interest rates.
Recent analysis shows that heavy US debt issuance, reduced foreign demand and a growing reliance on short-dated funding are pushing yields higher and steepening the yield curve.
When long-dated yields rise, the cost of capital increases across the economy. Over time, this creates headwinds for equities, property and other risk assets.
We view rising yields as a structural risk. Portfolio positioning reflects ongoing assessment of interest-rate exposure across the 18.6 Year Real Estate and Banking Cycle.
For further information about our 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio, see: oakleighfinancial.com/strateā¦
Tim Moffatt retweeted
When one index shows a bearish pattern while the rest are bullish, we can ignore the bearish one. But when four bearish patterns appear across diverse sectors, we worry.
To add icing to the cake, gold and silver are going parabolic .... another alarming historical warning that something ominous is brewing beneath the surface.
Below:
Banks - Rising wedge
Nasdaq - Broadening pattern
Mags - Diamond top
SPX - Major rising channel resistance.
For one's private perusal
Enjoy.
