What if the real driver of the cost-of-living crisis isn’t inflation, but land? 🏠 Land prices rise. 💳 Debt grows. 📈 Housing becomes less affordable. 💸 Everyday costs keep climbing. Are we approaching a major economic turning point in 2026? Jonathan Brown and I explore the 18.6-year real estate cycle and the Citizen’s Dividend on the Shepheard-Walwyn Podcast.

As economic alarms sound once again, from warnings of AI-fueled bubbles to fears of a political breakdown, one economist is urging investors to zoom out and follow the rhythms of history. Phillip J. Anderson, an Australian economist and founder of @PropertySharem1, is best known for his prescient forecast of the 2008 U.S. financial crisis. In his landmark book, The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, Anderson traced over 200 years of U.S. economic history to reveal a recurring 18.6-year cycle driven by land speculation and credit expansion. His analysis showed how previous crashes, including the one in 2008, were not random. It was part of a predictable pattern rooted in real estate dynamics.

It’s not bad luck, it’s a predictable pattern that repeats every 18.6 years! In The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, Phil Anderson explores how interest rates move in a rhythm that repeats every 18.6 years. Taking on a massive mortgage at the peak of an interest rate spike is dangerous. But as Phil points out in his book, these high rates don't last forever. When the housing market cools down, central banks will drop interest rates again. This will make mortgages cheaper, giving smart buyers a chance to step back in or refinance at much lower rates.

Did you know? When copper prices soar, you can’t afford a house. It sounds surprising, but it’s a proven historical rule from Phil Anderson’s The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking. How do we know this? Just look at history. At the end of every 18.6-year real estate cycle (like 1989–1990 and 2007–2008), construction, power grid expansion, and speculative building hit a fever pitch. As Phil explains in his book, copper prices skyrocket at the exact moment land values reach their absolute peak, driving raw material costs through the roof. What happens when copper finally falls? Raw material input costs drop, construction costs ease, and housing affordability gradually resets. Watch Copper - it tells you when the land mania has hit its limit and when affordability is returning.

Have a read of my latest LinkedIn newsletter :) Why Am I Always Paying So Much to Get a House? You work. You earn. You save. Yet buying a house can still feel further out of reach. Why? One part of the answer is often overlooked: land.