𝗠𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘆’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲 The agency has maintained its Aa3 rating, while keeping a negative outlook. As is typical in such reports, the rating agency notes that the French economy is diversified and its institutions function well—identifying these as its core strengths. In the shorter term, it assumes that the 2027 budget will be adopted before the elections, potentially via executive orders (ordonnances). It projects a deficit of 5.2%, exceeding the 5% target set out in the finance act. Having stated this, the agency goes on to outline the various challenges facing French society: political fragmentation, social risk, a rapidly widening yield spread against Germany, and risks to economic growth. These factors justify the negative outlook in Moody’s conclusion—yet the agency stops short of taking further action. A concluding observation At this delicate juncture for the French economy and society, the agency is clearly keen to avoid acting as the catalyst for a crisis—the "canary in the coal mine"—which could have dramatic, large-scale consequences for France. A downgrade at this specific moment could have acted as a spark, with potentially damaging effects that might extend well beyond France’s borders. Moody’s has chosen not to shoulder that responsibility, opting to sit this one out. It leaves it to someone else to take that risk and handle the "hot potato." Standard & Poor’s is set to issue its own assessment on November 27.