Surgeon General of prediction market Twitter. Too liberal for the Deep South, too conservative for the PNW.

Seattle, WA
Joined September 2011
This market has been fighting a heroic battle against theta that it’s about to lose. There are only ten weeks left in the year.
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We have a new SI unit for how long a political role lasts, 1 Zc (Zacharia) = 0.5 Sc (Scaramucci)
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Talophex retweeted
👋 CFB fans in Tuscaloosa, We saw what happened Saturday. The citizens of Fansville wanted to send a little something your way… Head to📍Rounders @ 1215 University Blvd, Tuscaloosa, AL 35401 tonight for some Dr Pepper on us (while supplies last)!
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Replying to @gondorfi
Gondor is the first margin account for Polymarket Get a credit line against your Polymarket portfolio and use it to enter more positions
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1/🧵 There aren’t many prediction markets where medical knowledge leads to a huge advantage but we had one recently in “Another pneumonic plague case by October 15/30?”. The fact that there were two dates was key here, because most factors except the timing can be rinsed out.
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So back to the price of October 30, it should have been a little higher than October 15, but really not much. That’s not what we saw, it was over double at some points. So to wrap it all up what was the play? Buy No on October 30 and “protect” the bet with a…
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…nearly equal amount of Yes on October 15. If a second case occurs you break even, if no one gets sicks you harvest the gap between them, which it appears so far is what we will see. Easy money.
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When you include the second and third order effects of a thinner population this is essentially guaranteed to be true
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Can I exchange my 2016 Hillary bonds for 2026 midterm bonds? The coupon rate is the exact same
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Talophex retweeted
we’re gonna see a glut of tech-themed media hit the market in the next ~2 yrs. most of it is going to be incredibly bad. hollywood writers hate this world & do not understand it. and therefore cannot write abt it well.
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Talophex retweeted
First they came for the software engineers and I said nothing for I was not a software engineer. Then they came for the mathematicians and I said nothing for I was not a mathematician. Then they came for the lawyers and I said "make sure you get all the lawyers"
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This is the same crowd that wants to be appointed the AI police, which we cannot allow to happen under any circumstances. When proper oversight is created they need to be blacklisted from participation
Catching up on rationalist drama. If I understand it correctly: 1) WBE is a rapist. Somehow this is the least contestable part 2) the Manifold guy is a big fan of him 3) the Manifold guy recently hired Caroline Ellison 4) WBE claimed that Aella wanted to meet him and fuck
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The 49ers owner spent time in jail for being caught with a trailer park prostitute in Ohio and somehow here in Seattle we have an even more embarrassing owner, how is that even possible
To all @Seahawks fans and @12s, we have no plans to move the team, have never discussed it, haven’t even thought about it. End of story. I've said repeatedly we have no plans to change anything. Feel sad for the reporters looking for views and clicks who distort my answer out of context and sent an entire city into a spiral for no reason.
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Nobel prizes get announced next week and after last year’s winner leaked their webmaster has the opportunity to hide the funniest Easter egg in the history of prediction markets polymarket.com/event/nobel-p…
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And if you think nobody would fall for it you should stay inside and doom-scroll more often
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Absolutely tragic that the Seahawks win the Super Bowl and immediately get sold to an Olympic gold medalist scumbag who has gone viral for being shitty so many times that when you use AI to look up one of them you have to be detailed or it will inevitably mix up his scandals
Replying to @eastdakota
One more I forgot until just reminded: 3. Khosla Ventures wanted to invest in our Series C. Vinod took me, Michelle, and Lee out to dinner after he’d given us a term sheet. Near the end, Michelle and Lee got up to use the restroom. Vinod leaned over and said: “I’m impressed with you, not so much with them, what if you fire them and I’ll give you all their stock?” I think the charitable read was it was a test of my character. But I was so offended that we never spoke again. Literally blocked his number.
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So many tankers in the strait that they look like taxis in Manhattan, ship captains just leaning on their horns trying to get out in time to sell before the price crashes to zero from oversupply and we cap all the wells for 100 years
🚨 NEARLY 40 MILLION BARRELS of oil just passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours—back to pre-war levels! Up to 60 tankers transited under U.S. military protection. Trump, Hegseth, and Bessent are securing our supply lines and bringing down gas prices. America First wins again! 🇺🇸🔥
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From the people who brought you the timeless election myth of “Blexas”, get ready for the equally nonexistent “Blorida”
Change Research poll | 9/25-9/27 LV Florida statewide races 2026 Florida Governor 🟦David Jolly 48% 🟥Byron Donalds 46% —— US Senate 🟥Ashley Moody 48% (incumbent) 🟦Angie Nixon 47%
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