
Head Trader @TradeviewMarkets. Thoroughbred Owner...Golf and my dachshund Tony Pistachio
Saratoga Springs, NY
Joined February 2015
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Michael Venezia retweeted
Let’s use a recent example that perfectly illustrates how market narratives and sentiment tend to follow price.
The AI Memory Trade.
When memory stocks were ripping and going vertical, we were talking about absolutely insane moves, even surpassing $CSCO ’s legendary run during the dot-com bubble.
$SNDK: +1,000% ++ in 1 year
$MU: +672% ++ in 1 year
At the highs, nobody seemed to care about the cyclical nature of memory stocks. In fact, the low P/E multiples only reinforced the bullish thesis. These were no-brainer longs. You couldn't own enough $MU or $SNDK because we were in the early innings of an AI memory supercycle. $DRAM was an ETF people said was free money to buy in a retirement account and HODL (45% off highs now)
Fast-forward to today:
$SNDK rallied 8,340% from its 2025 lows to its highs and has now corrected 44%.
$MU rallied 1,830% from its 2025 lows to its highs and has now corrected 30%.
Suddenly, the narrative has completely flipped.
"Cyclical stocks always look cheapest at the top."
"Analysts are extrapolating peak-cycle pricing and earnings into the future."
"These stocks have already gone up thousands of percent. How much higher could they possibly go?"
Here's what I find fascinating:
>> Every single one of these arguments could have been made at the highs, but nobody cared because PRICE was going up.
Now that prices have corrected significantly, those same arguments are suddenly front and center, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
Could the bears be right? Absolutely. That's not the point.
The point is how quickly market psychology, sentiment, and the prevailing narrative shift depending on what price is doing.
When stocks are going vertical, everyone finds reasons to justify why they should keep going higher. When they start breaking down, everyone suddenly finds reasons why they should go lower.
The price action changes, and the narrative follows.
Again, at the end of the day, the only thing that PAYS is price. You can have the greatest thesis in the world, but if the chart doesn't agree, it doesn't matter.
However, I think understanding market psychology, positioning, and sentiment provides an additional edge in recognizing when narratives become extreme and how those extremes can influence future price action.
Follow price, but understand the psychology driving the participants behind it.
Replying to @NickSchmidt
No matter what the market does, there will always be a narrative that people use to justify the price action after the fact.
$QQQ just pulled back 7%, and suddenly the AI trade is dead. The bears come out in full force, digging up every negative headline, scary statistic, and bearish data point they can find to reinforce their thesis and strengthen their conviction. Could they be right? Absolutely. But this happens ALL the time.
People tend to get maximally bearish near the lows, when the negative narratives are the loudest. Conversely, when the market is going vertical, everyone becomes increasingly bullish and looks for information to justify why prices should keep going higher. It's confirmation bias.
The market moves, the narrative follows, and people convince themselves the narrative explains everything.
Recognize this behavior, thinking independently, and not letting the prevailing narrative dictate your decisions.
At the end of the day price is the ultimate arbiter regardless
Caw's would be shorting into the bounce
$CHDN Stock opens up 6% mornjng after news that @RepoleStable purchased 1M shares.
I'll join for some
BREAKING NEWS 🚨
Over the past four days, I’ve purchased 1 million shares and close to a 1.5% stake in @ChurchillDowns, and I may acquire more. I’m extremely excited about the possibilities.
Churchill has tremendous assets, led by what I believe is the global crown jewel of horse racing, the @KentuckyDerby. Last year’s Derby peaked at 24.4 million viewers. To me, that’s a major proof point of how BIG this sport can become.
As the owner of Repole Stable, one of the largest, most successful and recognizable stables in the country, I see firsthand the potential of what I believe is one of the most undervalued sports nationally and globally.
Horse racing needs more education, real marketing, innovation, and evolution. It also needs stronger leadership and greater accountability from the Old Guard racing entities that, in my opinion, have held the industry back for far too long.
Nobody loves building epic businesses and brands in a disruptive way more than I do.
I believe a meaningful ownership stake in Churchill gives me the greatest opportunity to help create value for Churchill shareholders AND make a positive financial impact across all of racing.
Growing this sport means growing opportunities for everyone, owners, breeders, track operators, horseplayers, fans, and everyone whose livelihood depends on racing.
I really look forward to working with CEO Bill Carstanjen, his board, and management team to help turn that potential into both short term and long term results.
Think Big. Dream Bigger.
Michael Venezia retweeted
OK TRADERS… I HAD TO DO THIS ONE This is a tribute to Mike & Tony Pistaccio — Saratoga edition. This one is all love, humor, and trader culture. Thank you, Mike, for everything you do and for sharing it with us. @TVMTrader @TradeGateHub @forexstophunter
Michael Venezia retweeted
Strong “Cup of coffee” right here, with a lot of life lessons…..
It's time for a Sunday morning coffee break. This afternoon Nick Santagata will accept the Mike Venezia Award, a bittersweet award named after his dear friend. He talked to @bySeanClancy about Mike in today's column.
Grab your Cup here 👉thisishorseracing.com/opinio…
Michael Venezia retweeted
Retired jockey Nick Santagata was riding alongside his friend Mike Venezia when the fatal accident that inspired racing’s prestigious sportsmanship award unfolded. This year, he becomes one of its recipients.
Full story ⬇️⬇️
paulickreport.com/features/i…
Michael Venezia retweeted
“This award means so much because Mike Venezia was someone I really admired. My family and I look forward to celebrating this award and thanking the Venezia family here at Saratoga Race Course.”
Check it out: paulickreport.com/news/peopl…
Michael Venezia retweeted
Wow. This is 💯 wonderful! Nick a close friend of Mike Venezia and it has to mean a tremendous amount to him to receive his namesake Award.
Retired Grade-1 winning jockey, longtime NYRA jockey valet and Brooklyn, N.Y. native Nick Santagata is the 2026 recipient of the Mike Venezia Memorial Award.
Full story ⤵️
nyra.com/saratoga/news/nick-…
Michael Venezia retweeted
Mike Venezia was a great rider, with so much success at The Big A....and a lovely person, as well.
Replying to @DRFLivingston
@DRFLivingston
Thought would appreciate on closing weekend. Myself and family thank you always for kinds words thru the years.
Michael Venezia retweeted
Replying to @equinepilot85
Eddie Maple retired that day after winning the Mike Venezia award. It makes me happy that you said the 1985 colony was the best. I was leading rider in New York that year. There were some incredible riders we competed with back then. – at Queens, NY
Positioning in software has been so one sided for so long.
Nobody owns it, endless potential buyers out there. Can’t remember the last time a sector was so unanimously hated and under owned.
Probably won’t be long before we hear “remember when the market and everyone thought AI would kill software?”
If (big if) semis cool off, the most obvious rotation is software. Also have to think the AI winners start to really separate themselves in the coming quarters.
It’s only obvious in hindsight but I have a hard time believing we won’t eventually look back at the selloff in this group as an opportunity.
Michael Venezia retweeted
Aqueduct Racetrack, 1986
#TheBigA 💙🤍























