Research, conviction & capital as catalyst. Σ DeFi-native yield fund.
Joined October 2021
- Tweets1.2K
- Following77
- Followers2.2K
- Likes1K
Papertrade's LP started at $0 and hit its $5M cap in 65 minutes.
In its first 7 days, @papertrade_xyz traded $1.25T and traders lost $56M net. The LP has stayed close to its cap since, and $51.2M has already been paid to $PAPER stakers.
That cap doubles to $10M today (18:45 UTC), so the LP will keep up to $10M before paying excess to stakers.
The launch rush also front-loaded the token. Two thirds of the 8.46B $PAPER supply was minted in the first 24 hours, when minting cost far less than it does today.
Trading has held up after most launch deposits left. But with 94% of volume from the top 10% of wallets, it's hard to say how much of it will last.
Mechanically, the Martingaler LP has performed as intended. The real test comes once $PAPER is transferable.
ALT Papertrade's first week at a glance, after 7 days of trading, 10 Oct to 17 Oct 2026. Traders: $1.25T traded, 1,166,085 positions opened, 16,126 wallets traded, 21,660 deposited, TVL $67.5M (peak $137.9M). Traders lost $56M net to the LP, which held a median $4.96M at its $5M cap. Above the cap, $51.2M was paid out to $PAPER stakers. 8.46B $PAPER minted, 99.3% staked.
Aave V4 has added $434 million in deposits since Sept. 15, and $292 million of it sits on its Arc hub, live since Circle's mainnet launch.
Core on Ethereum added another $93 million.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…
Farm opens today, and the $2M line matters less than it looks. In our sims at full flow, the mint cost only doubles around day 30.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
That sim is ours! Chapter two is out too: at full flow, 72.6% of all $PAPER gets minted in the first 90 days.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
Clean rundown. The "stake $PAPER, collect USDC" line is the one to watch from today: in our sims at full flow and 20% staked, a token staked on day 30 earns about 40% less than one staked on launch day.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
Agree the queue is the main risk, and today is its first real test: over $60M deposited, LP starting at $0.
In our sims, 494 of 608 runs never made a single winner wait, and no debt lasted past the day it appeared.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20842494…
Tomorrow @papertrade_xyz opens perps at up to 1,000x, against a pool seeded at $0 and funded by its traders' losses.
We ran it 608 times and the pool stayed solvent in every run.
From launch, real traders put it to the test.
papertrade pre-deposits are live!
papertrade.xyz
in order to avoid the launch trading congestion, deposit during the next two days to secure your spot at the starting line. once trading begins, account creation/deposits will be heavily deprioritized.
no need to rush - there is no advantage to depositing earlier during this period.
when on 10.10 will papertrade go live?
live trading will begin approximately one hour after the expected hyperevm network upgrade on 10.10. the exact upgrade time is not known beforehand. the official hyperliquid discord will post an update when the upgrade is about to begin, so keep an eye there for an early heads up. there is a small historical possibility that the upgrade will happen on the AM of the 11th.
We tested that solvency risk on 3.6M real max-leverage Hyperliquid trades, and the pool stayed solvent in all 608 runs.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20842494…
We read the docs, then ran them through a sim.
At full flow, the first 5% of losers to show up get 39% of all $PAPER staker fees.
Be early.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
One thing we'd add is timing.
In our sims at full flow, the first 25% of losers to show up get 85.4% of all $PAPER staker fees, as long as new losers keep coming.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
Great breakdown! In our sims at full flow and 20% staked, someone staking on day 0 earns about 6x more per $PAPER than someone who starts on day 180.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
Great writeup, love the pair math.
On USDC payouts, our sims say you miss little early: stakers get under 3% of lifetime fees before the $5M cap. Waiting costs share instead.
At full flow and 20% staked, day-0 earns $0.266 per token, day-30 $0.157.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
Our dashboard tracks card spend, signups vs funded accounts, $USDe held and $AVAX cashback, all onchain from Avalanche:
dune.com/sumcap/ethena-pay
Ethena Pay has processed $2.67M in card spend, almost 3x the $0.9M it had on 17 September.
• ~1,350 card TXs a day from ~400 daily spenders
• $675K of it in the first week of October alone
@EthenaPay on @avax gives $USDe a new market of users.
Agree the decay is slow. In our sims the mint cost only doubles around day 30 at full flow.
The fee share is where timing bites: at full flow, the first 25% of losers to arrive capture 85.4% of staker fees.
Your sheet prices the mint, ours the payoff:
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/20998329…
V4 is the newest stream into that treasury, since all V4 revenue goes to the DAO under Aave Will Win.
We followed its first six months: the seven DAO-run hubs went from $3.5M supplied at launch to $1.03B by 29 Sep.
xitter.cf/Sumcap/status/21052435…